Exactly what some people have said already. Sony is probably more concerned with making as much money as possibly right now rather than getting a short sales boost. Plus, Microsoft and possibly Nintendo would just follow suit and drop their prices a little to nullify any Sony boost from a price cut.

You also have to consider the demand has to be there as well. If they drop the price and it isn't low enough it will just increase losses and leave them in the same sales position.

Agreed, but I don't think it's gonna happen. Sony is in crisis mode, even a $50 price cut has a hefty cost.

And that's exactly why Sony will most likely wait until Q4 to issue a price drop when the PS3 is significantly cheaper to manufacture. It's a scenario where Sony sees the least losses and the greatest increase of marketshare. It's a no brainer, the only question is if Sony will be able to plow through most of 2009 without dropping in price at all. Honestly, I don't see why they can't considering that the PS3 is still doing noticably better than the 360 did in 2008.

^^
We should consider too that all those components that are bought outside of Japan and priced in dollars are dirt cheap even now, so a weak $ has also some pros, not only cons, particularly if the units sold in EU and JP and paid to Sony in strong euros and yen are more than those sold in America in (currently) weak dollars.
Another thing to take into account is that production cost was $400 in January 2008 (so Sony was then losing the amount given by shipping an retailers' profit), now there are rumours it was breaking even right before Xmas, IIRC, so currently there should be room for a little cut without losing, but obviously a cut must be big enough to be significant, so besides pure HW costs of the operation, Sony must weigh the balance of costs and benefits: if a cut may be done without losing again (or losing very little, at most a few tens million $ from April to November) on HW sales, it's advisable to do it if the increase in HW and SW sales justify it, and having a considerably larger HW base before some big launches could be worth it, otherwise is better to do it as late as possible. The other thing to consider is that splitting the total 2009 $100 cut in two parts could force MS to counter them only once, at least for the XB360 arcade, otherwise to apply two noticeable cuts to its already low price, losses on it would skyrocket.

MS will cut the price of the Pro within a month of any Sony drop.  Also, as Kotaku reported, the Elite will be discontinued.  It will become the "limited edition" sku when MS brands with a third party.  I predict that by 10/2009 pricing will be as follows: Arcade $199, Pro $250, Elite discontinued, PS3 $299, and PS3 160 gig discontinued.

The end of 3rd quarter would be smarter so that they could create an strong momentum.

Sony needs to cut the price to a competitive level the moment they are able to.

A Q4 price-cut will hopefully come after the initial drop.

I'd predict more along the lines of:

Arcade $149-179, Pro $199-249

PS3 $299-349

(with the lower amounts more likely)

^^
Agree on most amounts, but lowest price for the Arcade, if applied before late Autumn, would cost MS an awful lot of money, more than a $299 PS3 to Sony. Obviously MS' bigger cash can afford it, but shareholders would probably approve it to avoid possible XB sales drop, not simply to counterattack Sony if its moves benefit PS3 without damaging XB 360. But? But MS could be bold enough to try to attack Wii, and stop minding about skirmishing with PS3, in this case drops would be decided with Wii as target instead of PS3. I still think MS blandishing Nintendo is more for fear of it, but I really cannot rule out the possibility it's a smoke curtain tactic to prepare an attack.