RPG, given the install base of XBOX360, FORZA 3 may sell better than many people think. Not by the GT5 standarts , but close to it, also dont forget that PS3 need a price cut.
What is going to happen if they release GT5, and sell the PS3 by this price point?????
RPG???
| Chromium24 said: I retract my earlier prediction. I forgot just how huge GT was for a minute. I didn't know the userbase on PS2 was that small when GT3 was released. My new prediction is 12 million, just under half of the userbase will own GT5 when its out. Its massive in PAL and Japan, and big in America. |
Did you know how big the userbase was when GT4 released? around 80 million.
| Kantor said: Gran Turismo 5: 9.5 million Forza 3: 4.5 million Anybody predicting less than 7 million for GT5...lol. |
Pretty good estimates. I think Forza 3 will break 4 million sales after 1 1/2 - 2 years and then die off completely, whereas GT5 will track only slightly above Forza, but continue to sell til the end of time 
| Chromium24 said: I retract my earlier prediction. I forgot just how huge GT was for a minute. I didn't know the userbase on PS2 was that small when GT3 was released. My new prediction is 12 million, just under half of the userbase will own GT5 when its out. Its massive in PAL and Japan, and big in America. |
You think that this game will be sold to almost half of the PS3 userbase? That is hefty. Any other games do that? Besides Wii Sports.
seece said:
Did you know how big the userbase was when GT4 released? around 80 million. |
Ruh roh looks like someone needs to be educated about market saturation, same goes for eliasg.
@JaggedSac GT5 is still a long ways away, install base will increase by then and for the GT franchise 10 million will be no problem at all.
Also seece how do you know people will not buy a PS3 for GT5? I am comparing Forza to GT because that is the closest it has ever got to competition but if you look at the numbers, it is very easy to see why people think Forza 3 will do very small numbers compared to GT5.
A LOT of people pinning hopes on people being poverty stricken and having to go with Forza 3 because they cannot afford a PS3 for GT5. Never underestimate the power of o powerhouse franchise, Halo 3 released on a smaller userbase then what GT5 will release on and the numbers were great.
RPG said:
Ruh roh looks like someone needs to be educated about market saturation, same goes for eliasg. @JaggedSac GT5 is still a long ways away, install base will increase by then and for the GT franchise 10 million will be no problem at all. Also seece how do you know people will not buy a PS3 for GT5? I am comparing Forza to GT because that is the closest it has ever got to competition but if you look at the numbers, it is very easy to see why people think Forza 3 will do very small numbers compared to GT5. A LOT of people pinning hopes on people being poverty stricken and having to go with Forza 3 because they cannot afford a PS3 for GT5. Never underestimate the power of o powerhouse franchise, Halo 3 released on a smaller userbase then what GT5 will release on and the numbers were great. |
Why don't you explain how market saturation fits into this seen as you wont shut up about it?
I'm not saying they won't buy a PS3 for GT because they can't afford it, more so there is a Racing Sim just as good on the 360.
Again if Forza 3 isn't going to be bundled I expect the gap to be wider. I think people are over shooting the mark, thats my opinion and you asked for it.
i just cant see a 360 gamer buying the "other" console to play GT5.
FORZA series is a great alternative, and for many people (including me ) a better simulator from Grant Turismo...
| RPG said: This generation the industry has grown, people are buying more and more games. A flagship GT game has not yet released this generation so huge sales are written all over it. At the very worst I expect 8 million but the game is a system seller so with bundles my guess is at least 10 million. People would buy a PS3 for GT5, cannot say the same for Forza 3. |
So, there's 5-7 Million fanatcial GT fans that aren't quite fanatical enough to have already bought a PS3 and GT:Prologue?
Yet, today, America's leaders are reenacting every folly that brought these great powers [Russia, Germany, and Japan] to ruin -- from arrogance and hubris, to assertions of global hegemony, to imperial overstretch, to trumpeting new 'crusades,' to handing out war guarantees to regions and countries where Americans have never fought before. We are piling up the kind of commitments that produced the greatest disasters of the twentieth century.
— Pat Buchanan – A Republic, Not an Empire
seece said:
Why don't you explain how market saturation fits into this seen as you wont shut up about it?
I'm not saying they won't buy a PS3 for GT because they can't afford it, more so there is a Racing Sim just as good on the 360. Again if Forza 3 isn't going to be bundled I expect the gap to be wider. I think people are over shooting the mark, thats my opinion and you asked for it.
|
.............teehee
Anyway numpty market saturation is when there are many consoles and due to that more games sell less and less. For example GT3 sold much more than GT4 with the install base being very low compared to GT4, even without bundling GT4 should have got 20+ million if install base = sales. Another example is DMC, each one sold less and less as the install base increased, something which should not happen according to the "larger install base = more sales"
Kingdom hearts sold more than KH2 but since the install base was larger for KH II it should have sold more according to a few retards out there. There are so many examples but I think those are enough to get my point across about what market saturation is.
@ seece, people did not buy Gran Turismo 4, because they already had Gran Turismo 3. If you look at the sales across the PS1 era as well, I believe 1 sold better than 2, so we can expect 5 to be bigger than 4 even on a far smaller userbase
About market saturation, the percentage of a user base buying a certain game will nearly always decrease as the demographics of the console spread out, and so their interest in games will be wider
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