Sqrl said:
A price difference of $70 is a big deal, and during the holiday rush of buying presents plenty of parents will not even bother to ask a clerk. Kids do tell their parents precisely what they want in most cases, this I completely agree with. But I think it is you who is out of touch with this dynamic as parents don't always get exactly what is requested. When you are in a rush, trying to manage your holiday cash, and already view the console as just a toy and a waste of money the insistance and emphasis your child placed on how important it is can quickly be forgotten.
With that said, if you read my post carefully I never said the premium wasn't going to sell...this is why I felt I had to mention it several times and yet you still act as if I was implying that it wouldn't sell well. I never said it wouldn't. The premium will sell just fine! It's true people buy themselves stuff with X-mas bonuses, but the number of parents buying consoles for kids far outweighs the personal purchases. Very few people buy themselves things for X-mas, and even less spend $500 when they need to purchase gifts for family members still.I have to be honest in saying this argument seems to be grasping at straws. Are you trying to tell me that from a WW sales perspective there is going to be a meaningful number of people who are going to buy themselves a PS3 for X-mas? There will be people who do this, I don't doubt that. But this is just background noise compared to the PS3s that will be purchased for others. People need to realize that we don't need to account for every niche consumer in all of the millions of scenarios people could find themselves in. They just don't add up to anything meaningful and this niche is no different. Basically when I see this argument I see you saying "Well I see your widespread broadly sweeping and universal consumer and I counter it with my insignificant niche consumer.". I'm honestly not trying to be insulting but that is what I got out of your argument. Early adopters are always far more likely to buy the better equiped versions, so I am not really sure how the premium doing well up to this point means a whole lot in reference to the uninformed X-mas consumer. I don't doubt that overall the premium is and will do better, but the core will very likely see strong sales on its price alone this holiday. $70 is a big deal at X-mas, you can buy gifts for 3 people on $70. For the part I bolded, see my first responce to that argument. I won't go into again, as I think I addressed it pretty well above.For the rest of this quote: First of all I am not sure how the PS3 not having had a X-mas in the "EU/Others" regions yet really effects or fits into this discussion of consoles losing sales to other consoles. It would fit into a sales performance discussion just fine, but it makes no difference here. Secondly, when it comes to the PS3 having a better brand image I would agree for the EU. But this discussion isn't just about the EU, despite your attempts to make it seem that way. Now I have to ask you, how do you measure the brand if not by sales? Looking at the sales if the PS3 truly has such a strong brand then why is it struggling in sales? If it is a strong brand and there is so much faith in it then why aren't there games and why is it in a software drought? You can't have it both ways. The fact is that right now brand loyalty is out the window for Sony. All but the most hardcore fanboys see the problems and are hedging their bets. If the Brand was strong then gamers would be buying the console regardless of price and developers would be making tons of games for it regardless of install base. The brand is NOT strong on a WW basis. People need to accept this, you can't use the same crutch forever folks. I actually didn't call you a fanboy but you did paint yourself as one. Allow me to explain... I was making the bolded comment to prevent people from jumping on the statement. By stating this I was trying to preempt an argument that was pointless. The comment applied to anyone who was thinking of responding with the argument it was refuting. You responded with the argument, not much I can do about that. And actually if you look at the part in red, "for the rabid fanboys", I was clearly addressing it away from you. But I will apologise if I insulted you, it was not my intention. I am here for a debate not for a flamefest. The comment was intended only to bring clarity to what I was saying. I will take a wild guess. You are coming from the EU?  But to answer your question yes I live in the US. The only problem I have with your logic here is that it neglects the existance of the Wii. You cannot discount it just because it doesn't fit into the dicussion neatly. The Wii scrambles things up quite a bit and I think its low price and huge sales in all markets sort of proves that it has the biggest consumer confidense right now.
See above for the fanboy thing. And I completely agree about the quoting! |
So there the difference between you and me is, that you don't think people buying gifts for themselves bring the number up, and i do. Well basically we have to wait and see who's right about that.
Sorry, if you quoiting me, to answerer me, and say something about rapid fanboy, i have to think you mean me, but it was an misunderstanding :).
I didn't say somenthing about the Wii, the Wii will most likley hit the top spot in all region this Chrismas, there is only one thing that can stop that: leak of supply. And I think at least in the EU, it will be the Christmas gift, and after the hype in America, it could be the "It item" there this year. And i also did not say anything about the total numbers this fall, all is was saying is that the PS3 will outsell the 360 in Europe in Nov+Dec, if the price of the starter pack (or similar) drops to 500€ by 2:1, that is all i said.
Edit: I forgot to reply to 2 of your points.
If you look at Chrismas sales, there are a lot of things that have huge spikes at it at least in the EU, sales wise. One thing is obvious: Toys. But also high priced electronics. TV's and PCs for example (The big ones). I would say it would be surprising if TVs have a defect spike at Christmas. Thats something that underlies my point, that people only have that kind of money to spend on Christmas, and buying something for themselves.
And the second. You can not measure brand name by sells. Apple has a good brand name, a really good one. But their computers don't sell that good. Brand name is measured by desire and how good people see the brand.
Let me tell you something about people i know. I know one guy with a PS3, but he is not the average customer. I know 3 guys that wants a PS3, but they say, they buy it for 300-400€. Thats the price they are willing to pay. I'm the only one i know of, owning a Wii. I know one girl that wants a Wii and will buy it at Christmas, because thats the only time she can afford it. I have yet to meet somebody who wants or owns a 360. I know that is not representative, but stay with me for one moment. I can see 2 of these PS3 wanter buy it this Christmas, if Sony does something so they think they get a good deal. These guys are the people Sony is targeting for at the moment. They have a HDTV, are interested in movies and games.
Just to compare: Everybody I showed my Wii loved it. I showed most to the absolutely non gamers. Some of them are students and can not afford to pay 300 €(Wii+WiiMote) on something others is the price to high, but asking them, how much they would spend, most of them said something between 100-200€. If the Wii hits that spot, i can see the Wii sell much much much much more than now just for Wii Sports and Wii Fit.
Edit2:
The release price of the PS2 was 850 DM. Thats about 420 €. Factoring in inflation and a higher VAT in Germany that makes something around 490 € today. A 500 € price point (Basic assumption for my Argument) for the starter pack is compared to that a good deal, don't you think? Just to show you, we Europeans are used to such high release price of consoles.
(Sorry, had to shorten the qoute, it would be way to long otherwise.)
