Honestly, I am still not convinced the full sales potential of the Wii has been reached. I think after this X-mas we could see a serious surge in Wii sales as aunts, uncles, cousins, grandpas, etc... all get a chance to see the Wii in action. I don't think we are anywhere near the point where we can say for certain one way or the other whether the Wii will or won't ultimately be able to pass the PS2.
But there are a few things to keep in mind. For instance the PS2 has not been out for 7 years, it has been out for 6 years 10 months. Also people forget that the Nintendo is ramping up production in a big way, and once they get all those units flowing and they are able to meet demand you can bet they will start up with the ad campaigns. It is also worth mentioning that the PS2 sold the vast majority of its units after its first major price drops. And some have already mentioned the Wii is selling this well right now without its major games out. This X-mas could see a huge influx of people who are now willing to spend the cash on a Wii becauase the games they were waiting for are now here.
Basically there are a lot of things that have a history of launching a console on to better sales numbers and until we know what their impact on Wii sales will be I think its really hard to say one way or the other.
But I do know that anyone ruling it out is deluding themselves just as much as anyone assuring it.