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Forums - Sales Discussion - Saving japanese market

Everyoe needs to stop overreacting.

The Japanese gaming market did very badly in 2008, for a list of known reasons that shant be repeated in 2009.

Square Enix happened to have very few games in 2008, they will have huge games in 2009.
In 2008, SE had alot of ports and a few spin offs of Final Fantasy, as well as the money hatted 360 games.

In 2009, SE will release a game in Japan from each of their two biggest series - Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. They have also shifted development away from the PS360 towards PS/PSP/Wii, which should increase sales.

Capcom also looks to have better games in 2009 than 2008.

Nintendo focused on the West in 2008, but looking at their release schedules, Japan has twice as many announced releases as Others, and more than twice the Americas. Wii Sports Resort, Sin and Punishment and the GC ports should boost sales

Japan will be fine



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Look at Japan yearly since 1996. That's as far back as I believe the data is credible.

 

1996:

HW sold: 10M

SW sold: 48M

 

 

1997:

HW sold: 11.8M

Sw sold: 54.1M

 

1998:

HW sold: 10.3M

SW sold: 52.8

 

1999:

 

HW sold: 13.6M

SW sold: 57M

 

2000:

 

HW sold: 10.4M

SW sold: 43.7M

 

2001:

 

HW sold: 11.8M

SW sold: 37.6M

 

2002:

 

HW sold: 10.6M

SW sold: 39.5M

 

2003:

 

HW sold: 8.6M

SW sold: 38.1M

 

2004:

 

HW sold: 8.9M

SW sold: 37.1M

 

2005:

 

HW sold: 10.3M

SW sold: 37.5M

 

2006:

 

HW sold: 13.9M

SW sold: 68.8M

 

2007:

 

HW sold: 16.4M

SW sold: 70.2M

 

2008:

HW sold: 12.4M

SW sold: 62.3M

 

 

The Japanese market isn't shrinking at all. It boomed in 2006. 2008 is small compared to 2007, but 2007 is also the biggest year in the Japanese history.

 

Myth: The Japanese market is decreasing in solid numbers. WRONG.

 

Okay, but in a sense - that's beside the point.

 

Let's go look at YoY hardware shipments, and the Japanese market share here. This takes a fair amount of time to do, so I will only do from 00 to 07. I'm also only doing the christmas halves, as the other half doesn't appear correctly.

 

Fy 00:

5.77M out of 26.4M = 21.9%

 

Fy 01:

6.24M out of 28.52M = 21.8%

 

Fy 02:

7.42M out of 29.94M = 24.7%

 

Fy 03:

5.87M out of 29.49M = 20%

 

Fy 04:

5.4M out of 26.9M = 19.7%

 

Fy 05:

8.2M out of 38M = 21.5%

 

Fy 06:

7.4M out of 35M = 21.1%

 

Fy 07:

11.08M out of 42.1M = 26.7%

 

... And sold numbers for FY 08:

8.65M out of 48M = 18%

 

Beware that this is just half of the years (christmas Quarter, October through March), and only up untill March 08.

 

So I'd have to say that this points to:

No - the Japanese market is not shrinking.

- In complete numbers, it is increasing.

- In market share, it saw a slight drop in FY 08, and it might drop some more in FY 09. But really, this isn't a lot compared to pre-2006. To VGChartz members, though, it will seem like it dropped, as most joined in the great 07.

- The reason for the market share drop is quite simple. Europe. Americas is seeing similar drops as Japan, so is it really those dropping? No, of course not. Europe is increasing more than the other 2 areas, eating their market share. Nothing Japan specific.

 

And a final note:

The Market share presented here is flawed. It's only for half of the year (I can only open half of them), but as it is like that all the way, it shouldn't make any major impact... I think.

 

Extra note:

This post is very short indeed.

 

 

 

 

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Like I said in the first topic, i don't think japan is bombing, i just thik NA/EU growth fast, and now they are much bigger than japanese market, so Japan look small now, but it isn't, it just the same as always. Like I said, gaming industry is suffering because of this, they should expand to inexplored markets like Latin America, Russia, China, India and etc. Just like Latin america, if the industry decides too invest in this market it could be as big as Japan.

And small japanese dev. that don't have condition of worldwide realeses should put english subtitles to estimulate importing from other regions, Like anime games, West have more anime fans than Japan itself, they just don't import the games they like just because they can't understand the Japanese.



i like the first idea, even tho i already import, having to use guides is just a little annoying tho



FishyJoe said:
The Japanese economy is terrible and the population is quickly aging. Basically the country is getting poorer and older. Not a good recipe for selling things that appeals to younger people with money.

 

shouldnt the younger generations be taking over in Japan soon like in the US/EU?



PC gaming is better than console gaming. Always.     We are Anonymous, We are Legion    Kick-ass interview   Great Flash Series Here    Anime Ratings     Make and Play Please
Amazing discussion about being wrong
Official VGChartz Folding@Home Team #109453
 
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ssj12 said:
FishyJoe said:
The Japanese economy is terrible and the population is quickly aging. Basically the country is getting poorer and older. Not a good recipe for selling things that appeals to younger people with money.

 

shouldnt the younger generations be taking over in Japan soon like in the US/EU?

 

The Japanese have one of the lowest birth rates in the world. That means Japan will have fewer young people than most of the rest of the world on average.



FishyJoe said:
ssj12 said:
FishyJoe said:
The Japanese economy is terrible and the population is quickly aging. Basically the country is getting poorer and older. Not a good recipe for selling things that appeals to younger people with money.

 

shouldnt the younger generations be taking over in Japan soon like in the US/EU?

 

The Japanese have one of the lowest birth rates in the world. That means Japan will have fewer young people than most of the rest of the world on average.

 

no wonder why there are a ton of japanese women in america



PC gaming is better than console gaming. Always.     We are Anonymous, We are Legion    Kick-ass interview   Great Flash Series Here    Anime Ratings     Make and Play Please
Amazing discussion about being wrong
Official VGChartz Folding@Home Team #109453
 

how about instead of calling it the japanese market we called it the asian market, and that includes everything east of europe (excluding a few places here and there)



ssj12 said:
FishyJoe said:
ssj12 said:
FishyJoe said:
The Japanese economy is terrible and the population is quickly aging. Basically the country is getting poorer and older. Not a good recipe for selling things that appeals to younger people with money.

 

shouldnt the younger generations be taking over in Japan soon like in the US/EU?

 

The Japanese have one of the lowest birth rates in the world. That means Japan will have fewer young people than most of the rest of the world on average.

 

no wonder why there are a ton of japanese women in america

 

oh really?



Oyv - Repeat the analysis for consoles only and you'll get much more dramatic results.

Japan today is less than 5% of the global console market.

Sad.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3