Fail... in so many ways...is not even funny

It is optimistic, yes. But quite achieveable.

Lets assume 78 million to be the absolute maximum that the Wii could be on, due to supply reasons.

Lets say the 360 cannot sell as many consoles in its 4th year as it did in its 3rd year (the 3rd year is traditionally the peak for hardware after all, and 2008 saw the Arcade drop to the 'sweet spot')

So lets say it sells 80% of its 2008 number

which puts it on 36 million or so

Now, the PS3 sold less in 2008 than it did in 2007, but there was no price cut in 08, and there probably will be one in 09. 2009 is also its 3rd year, so it could sell 10% more this year. This would put it on 31 million or so

This would give the Wii 53.8% market share.

I'm not saying it's certain, but barring a huge PS3 price cut in the next month or two I think it's very achieveable

What hentai 11 said.

What TWRoO said.

What stof said.

Also WiiSports, WiiFit, Mario Kart Wii and Wii play sell loads consistantly both EU and US!!

This christmas Wii had the worst software lineup and still trashed the competition!

Japan sales have been doing better for both PS3 and 360 but not enough to effect the overall numbers.

PRICE! 360 with 60GB is cheaper than a Wii, Arcade/core is even cheaper and still outsold by Wii.

Generally Wii software is cheaper, but then look Wiifit sells loads

Wii will easily break through 50% this year.

There would have to be a cataclysmic event to stop this! Got any good ideas what that might be?

They will finally turn on the Large Hadron Collider which will create a black hole that will suck 20 million Wiis into oblivion.

While the original poster obviously hasn't done any research, I'll still copy paste my marketshare predictions for january 1st, 2010:

Wii: around 52%
360: around 27%
PS3: around 21%

Of Course Wii will reach 50% this year, and will be quite above it when 2010 rolls in, by the end of the generation Wii could be above 60%. Nintendo will increase production once again for holiday period.

About your arguments:

You list big PS3 games, but you forget that the best selling games this gen. Will be on Nintendo Console: Wii Fit will outsell the PS3, Mario Kart sells like crazy, Wii Sports Resort will sell more then any game you have listed.

Japan, well Wii still dominates in that region, and yeah PS3 looks good for 2009 but can it really outsell the Wii for more then 10-15 weeks this year? Wii Sports Resort and Monster Hunter III are coming to the Wii , and those titles will be big in Japan.

Price: Cheap 360 sells a lot but still does not outsell the Wii, In the UK Pro version is cheaper then the Wii, and Wii stays on top. Price is not everything 99$ Gamecube did not suddenly start outselling the PS2, and this same wont happen with HD Twins.

It is just too far to suggest the Wii would drop below 40%. For that to happen, the Wii has to sell way below a 40% marketshare for every week of the year for that to happen.

That would imply that PS3 sales approximately equal to 360 sales AND the Wii not being that much higher than either of them.

Wow, the OP should've never bothered. That said; the majority of this site remained adament that the Wii would reach 50% marketshare and sell 45 million units by the end of 2008 and neither of those happened, so everyone can be wrong.
I'm not saying the Wii won't reach 50% marketshare (my sig would suggest as much), my point is simply that things don't always play out exactly like we assume and/or hope.
Analyzing trends and making projections will take you far, but not always all the way, which this generation should show more than any other, and indeed the site staff's own predictions for year end hardware was mostly wrong in 2008 (yes, most were very close, but the fact of the matter was that these milestones were touted as sure things and were guaranteed).
The next few months will be telling, we can't look back on 2008 and say things will remain the same, the future is not the past.

PS: The idea of Wii at 40% marketshare by years end must be among the most preposterous things ever uttered in here.

he must have known he was being silly b/c he has yet to try to defend himself

This year Wii Fit will sell more than all those games by a large margin.  In fact it could sell more than what all those games put together would sell on PS3 and very close to what all those games put together would sell on 360 so your logic here is seriously flawed.  That doesn't even take into account the fact that very few people are going to buy a PS3 or 360 for those games but there are tons of people this year that would buy Wii for Wii Fit.  And we haven't even thrown Mario Kart Wii and Wii Sports Resort into the mix.  But there's no need to as Wii Fit alone makes your reasoning somewhat lacking in reasoning.