Wii will never top the 50%! Let's discuss it!

[scottie]

TWRoO said:

scottie said:
@ thanny - that was a combination of adjustments from the Christmas period (where the Wii still sold many more consoles than PS360) and January being the worst month for the Wii, due to supply constraints.

Wii should be able to hit 54% by Dec 31

While  am going to ignore tremble in this thread because his post is pure awsomeness of failure (instead I have already copy/pasted his "predictions" into a saving thread of mine)

54% is very optimistic though.... it is the highest percentage I would consider possible for the end of 2009.... it is more likely to be between 52% and 53% while 51% would be an incredibly low pessimisic estimate.



Think about it, the Wii is unlikely to have sold fewer than 75 million by the end of the year, to have less than 50% marketshare the PS3+360 need to have sold the same..... asking the X360 to reach 40 million is a possibility, but it's at the high end of likelyhood, for the PS3 it would be optimistic to reach 33 million.

For the Wii to go down to 40% it would have to stop selling entirely.

 

 

It is optimistic, yes. But quite achieveable.

 

Lets assume 78 million to be the absolute maximum that the Wii could be on, due to supply reasons.

Lets say the 360 cannot sell as many consoles in its 4th year as it did in its 3rd year (the 3rd year is traditionally the peak for hardware after all, and 2008 saw the Arcade drop to the 'sweet spot')

So lets say it sells 80% of its 2008 number

which puts it on 36 million or so

Now, the PS3 sold less in 2008 than it did in 2007, but there was no price cut in 08, and there probably will be one in 09. 2009 is also its 3rd year, so it could sell 10% more this year. This would put it on 31 million or so

This would give the Wii 53.8% market share.

 

I'm not saying it's certain, but barring a huge PS3 price cut in the next month or two I think it's very achieveable