I would argue that there are more factors than these titles being core games ...

If The Conduit and Mad World are both critically acclaimed games that have massive marketing campaigns and they sell less than 500,000 units a lot of publishers might become concerned; if these games received good review scores (~80%) and have moderate marketing campaigns and sell 500,000 to 1,000,000 I don't think many publishers would be that worried about future games; and if these games end up being fairly average in quality with virtually no marketing campaigns and still break 1 Million in sales it would be very encouraging.

It would be best for the long-term prospect of non-mini-game collections on the Wii if the Conduit sold well (and Madworld did OK -- but it is more of a niche title than an FPS).

This is especially true since this generation may last longer than the norm because of the global economic climate.

Mike from Morgantown

But devs are going to want to tap into that 50 million. They'll keep trying. Publishers will become more wary, but they really don't have a choice but to keep trying

I don't see someone like, say, High Voltage Studios trying to compete with the big budget games on PS360. It's a fairly toxic environment for anyone but the biggest of publishers. Even if The Conduit flopped, they would be back. Ditto for other companies that aren't making enough money on PS360 (hint: there's a lot of them, even some of the bigger ones)

Internet forums in general don't mean anything. Most people on them are in their own little world. Even if the game does have hype on other forums, it's not even close to this forum. The Conduit isn't placing 2nd on most wanted lists anywhere else but here. And if you go to gamefaqs, The Conduit isn't in the top 10 for Wii games or Wii game message boards. VGchartz is seriously the only place where the game is this hyped.

Although some publishers may have branded The Conduit as a market barometer, the Wii has already proven itself as a console that moves a lot of software third-party or not. Games like Dragon Quest are going to sell millions on the Wii, and that won't be ignored by publishers no matter how bad the Conduit fails if it does.

Let's the The Conduit does go on to sell, say, 1.5 million copies. I seriousy doubt publishers are going to put all there FPS's on the Wii now because it. Not with the way they sell on the HD consoles.

This game will have very little impact on the Wii no matter how it does.

They won't flop. The Conduit will sell a million at least, but I doubt Mad World will reach it.

I fear sales in Europe. Hard core games are generally priced at relatively higher prices than most Wii games (usually just below X360 prices), they are harder to find, and don't seem to get price drops.
No More Heroes and Okami still cost up to 60 Euros each in mainland Europe, which does not help sales when most new games are priced at between 29 and 49 Euros.

I would be very surprised (positively) if these titles break 500k world wide.

Unfortunately I think they both will get to 200-300k something.

First let's see if they're good games. The Conduit is from a mediocre (at best) developer, just because they know how to do good PR it doesn't mean the game is good. I hope it's good, but I'm still waiting to see how it goes. As for Madworld, I haven't followed it so I don't know (doesn't seem like my kind of game).

My point is that we can't form expectations before the games even get released or at least reviewed.

Very easy, actually.  WaW is a series most notable on the HD platforms.  Not Wii.  CoD4 didn't even make an appearence.   What kind of marketing did WaW for Wii get?  I recall everything being centered and focused on the HD SKU's with small Wii icons, or 'also available on Wii' tags, etc...added.  They ran one small TV campaign that focused on the Wii version but it was run well after launch.

Sega has already stated they will give The Conduit a big marketing push.  Sales carry greatly on marketing.

Retailers also didn't order much of WaW for the first several week sas noted by sell outs and low VGC numbers that increased with more shipments.   Retailers didn't expect a Wii version to sell well and take up holiday shelf space when the HD versions were the star of the show.

Sega has a very damn good relationship with retailers and they'll get plenty of shelf space at a time with little competition, no HD SKU's to hinder sales, exclusive support and a big marketing campaign for a game that is far more hyped for Wii than WaW ever was (for Wii).

At bold.  I think you've just lost whatever debate we are having.

I'm not saying it will have an instantly tangible impact but the destiny of The Conduit will most certainly change the destiny of certain future titles.  Publishers have already admitted this much.  Unless you're accusing them of lying. 

I don't see either selling less than 500k.  The marketing and retailer positioning suggest much better sales.   Those 2 factors (marketing and retail support) go a long way to making or breaking  a title.   Quality actually plays less of a role than those 2 do.  Just ask any publisher and they'll tell you the exact same thing.

Of course they'll want to tap into those 50 million users, but my point is that they won't keep trying to make these types of games if they won't move.

That said, I think I'll have to see how these games fare before I say anything else that can potentially bite me (and many others) in the ass. I do think The Conduit will do decently, not Metroid numbers but good none the less, seeing as it is a tad mainstream, something which Madworld isn't, which is why I think Madworld won't do too well.