First announced: May 2005

Since then, we’ve seen: A bunch of screens, a couple of trailers and – once, over two years ago – the actual game in motion.

Why it’ll be delayed: It’s been almost four years since Alan Wake was first revealed, and we still don’t know for sure what kind of a game it’ll be. The last time the game was seen in motion by journalists was in 2006, and those reports indicated it was anything from traditional survival-horror to free-roaming action-adventure with driving thrown in. The most recent trailer, meanwhile, makes the game look eerily like Alone in the Dark (but with prettier scenery and more bumpkins), evoking terrifying memories of nightmarish inventory management and frighteningly shitty combat.

Above: Hmmmm… 

The last trailer was impressive, sure, and it made us excited to play in the game’s pine-filled mountain town of Bright Falls, Wash., but it also didn’t really show anything apart from the title character talking to other residents and running from mostly unseen dangers. Since then, there hasn’t really been any news, and we’re starting to wonder if this story of a writer haunted by his nightmares is actually real, or if we’ve just been insane since 2005 and hallucinated the whole thing.

Best-case scenario (if we’re wrong): We imagine Alan Wake could go one of two ways if it hits this year: either it’ll get a big reveal at E3 and be prepped for release as Microsoft Game Studios’ big second-string holiday release (see: Fable 2), or it’ll sneak onto store shelves sometime in April or June before quietly slipping into that void of semi-forgotten horror games where Alone in the Dark, Condemned 2 and Silent Hill: Homecoming now reside.

Also, even after playing it to the end, nobody will be able to give a definitive answer when asked exactly what kind of game it is.

First announced: Sept. 2006

Since then, we’ve seen: Two trailers, one of which is just a much shorter version of this one:

Why it’ll be delayed: Accurately re-creating the entire city of Los Angeles as it was in the 1940s is no small task, and it’s exactly what developer Team Bondi has reportedly been doing since 2004. After nearly five years of work, however, we still haven’t seen anything more than a trailer. In fact, the only reason we suspect L.A. Noire could come out this year at all is because it’s being published by Rockstar Games, which has a long tradition of revealing almost nothing about its titles until they’re near completion.

Even if it weren’t for Rockstar’s habitual caginess, though, Team Bondi (which includes some of the people who worked on The Getaway on PS2, itself repeatedly delayed) has a tough row to hoe. The trailers have hinted at a city with all the grand scale and minute detail of GTA IV’s Liberty City, which – if it’s actually going to be a historically accurate replica of the ginormous, sprawling monster of a city glimpsed in films like Chinatown and L.A. Confidential – seems like an insane undertaking.

Best-case scenario (if we’re wrong): Riding high after the one-two punch of Grand Theft Auto: The Lost and Damned and GTA: Chinatown Wars, Rockstar could unexpectedly reveal that L.A. Noire is nearly finished and will be ready for release sometime in October. Screens and trailers would trickle out, “event” trailers would hit and then – in a shocking twist after 2007’s GTA IV delay – the game could actually ship on time.

First announced: May 2008

Since then, we’ve seen: This bizarre little trailer:

Why it’ll be delayed: Yeah, we’re all really excited for this one, but bear in mind that it’s the sequel not only to one of the most critically acclaimed games of the previous generation, but also to one of its biggest commercial flops. And while Ubisoft doesn’t appear to have much else in the works for 2009 at this point, we’re betting they’ll back-burner BG&E2 in a heartbeat if it means that Splinter Cell: Conviction, the next Prince of Persia or (God forbid) Raving Rabbids could be out on time instead.

That element of doubt is only half of the equation, though – there’s also the fact that the game was only just announced last year. Since then, all we’ve seen of it is a slick teaser trailer that features heroes Pey’j and Jade sitting around a broken-down car in the middle of a desert, looking sleepy and bored. No gameplay. No hint of a plot. Just a shred of what might be an opening movie, without even a look at protagonist Jade’s face.

Above: No, she never turns around 

Now, we’re not saying the dev team hasn’t been hard at work on creating all of those things since before the trailer was made public, but if they’re going to create an experience on par with the first game, their chances of doing so this year are slim.

Best-case scenario (if we’re wrong): Judging by its behavior in the past, Ubisoft will keep a tight lid on BG&E2 until we’re close to the holidays. Then, it’ll release it – with minimal fanfare and alongside at least three other games - to fight and die against the inevitable holiday rush of higher-profile titles, spurring a whole new wave of critics to write endless articles lamenting the poor buying decisions of the philistine public.

First announced: May 2008

Since then, we’ve seen: A handful of gruesome-looking screens and the following teaser trailer:

Why it’ll be delayed: So, let’s recap what we just saw in the trailer above. Most of the footage is of a live-action workshop, followed by an in-game model of protagonist Rick Taylor standing in a black void. The next shot is of him standing in a kind of generic-looking ballroom, followed by a brief moment where he tears the head off a monster in the same ballroom.

Sure.

Now, ask yourself: if you were creating a current-gen revival of a cult-classic 16-bit series, and you were well on your way to putting some kickass gameplay together, wouldn’t you want to show it off? Yeah, we know, trailers tend to be months behind the development team, and the screens that came out around the same time are a lot livelier, but even those seem to exist more to show off the game’s impressive damage models than to highlight actual gameplay. It seems that what we have here are the foundations of an impressive game – but solid foundations alone won't be enough to get the final game out the door anytime soon.

Above: HUUUURRRRRRR DUUUURRRRRRR 

Best-case scenario (if we’re wrong): For all its graphical flash and slick dismemberment, Splatterhouse seems to be a pretty uncomplicated brawler, so it’s probably the likeliest candidate on this list to prove us wrong. Gamestop currently has a June 16 release date for it, which would be a pretty damned impressive target date if the game managed to hit it. Instead, we’d bank on it being out a little later, maybe in October, where it can show up in the usual round of asinine “Top XX Scary Games for Halloween” list articles sure to be circulated by fine publications like this one.

First announced: May 2006

Since then, we’ve seen: A few pieces of concept art that look like this:

Why it’ll be delayed: The entire point of “episodic gaming” is to enable developers to crank out smaller games on a more frequent basis than they would if they were creating “full” games. This point seems lost on Valve, which has managed to make exactly two add-on episodes for Half-Life 2 in the amount of time it would take most other developers to crank out Half-Life 3 and 4.

Like Blizzard, though, Valve is known for producing outstanding games after years of hard work and perfectionism. We’re sure Valve has something amazing up its sleeve – it’s been rumored since 2007 that Episode 3 would include the Portal gun – but we’re almost equally sure that before it comes out, we’ll have seen two new Portal expansions and a sequel to Duke Nukem Forever (which doesn’t necessarily mean DNF itself will have come out). Hell, at least Duke Nukem Forever has given us more to go on than a couple paintings of some chasm.

Above: WOOOOO! CHASM! 

Best-case scenario (if we’re wrong): Ideally, Episode 3 could hit Steam sometime in the first half of the year. It could then followed by an Xbox 360/PSN release that nobody will play, because they still haven’t gotten around to finishing Episode 1, Episode 2 or anything else on the Orange Box that wasn’t Portal.

First announced: July 2008

Since then, we’ve seen: This presentation from last year’s E3, and nothing else:

Why it’ll be delayed: Even ignoring that Home’s multiple delays don’t speak well to Sony’s ability (or at least that of its console division) to get massively multiplayer games out on time, MAG is a hugely ambitious project that we’d be surprised to see in 2010, let alone this year, from any developer. And although MAG developer Zipper Interactive managed to define PS2 online gaming year after year with its landmark SOCOM series, there’s a big difference between setting up small, squad-based skirmishes on a last-gen console and creating gigantic, persistent battlefields that can fought over by 256 players at once.

OK, so Sony’s done massive shooters before on PC, with the much-maligned Planetside, and Zipper’s doubtless been working on MAG for a lot longer than we’ve known about it. But even bearing that in mind, the scarcity of information on the game is a little weird for something that could potentially ship this year. As of this writing, Sony has yet to release official screenshots, or to make MAG’s trailer available for download by press outlets. Even at this early date, we should have seen more of what could be the biggest console shooter (literally) of the year.

Best-case scenario (if we’re wrong): Like so many of the other games on this list, MAG could well make a huge splash at E3, blasting the gaming press with all the screens, videos and hands-on impressions it could possibly want. Assuming all the server issues are worked out in short order, it could then be proudly added to the PS3’s library alongside SOCOM: Confrontation, Tom Clancy’s EndWar and all the other realistic, story-free military games that appeal almost exclusively to ultra-hardcore online gamers.

First announced: May 2006

Since then, we’ve seen: Screenshots, an unprecedented-for-its-time “casting” trailer and a slightly less impressive (but much creepier) gameplay trailer filled with quicktime events.

Why it’ll be delayed: Well, the trailer says 2009, and Heavy Rain has been called Sony’s “most important” game of 2009 by David Cage, founder of developer Quantic Dream, which indicates that the company is at least planning to get the game out the door sometime this year. However, the combination of reportedly tricky-to-program-for machinery, a small development team and one of the most graphically ambitious adventure games ever does not fill us with confidence.

And really, we haven’t trusted release dates on trailers since Metal Gear Solid 4 kept getting pushed back, so the “2009” date for this eerie suspense story is already suspect.

Best-case scenario (if we’re wrong): Really, so long as the game ships this year, feels finished and doesn’t squander the suspense it creates on a final act filled with stupid conspiracies, robots and Dragon Ball Z fights (see Quantic’s last project, Indigo Prophecy/Fahrenheit), we’ll consider it a best-case scenario.

First announced: April 1997

Since then, we’ve seen: Sporadic releases of screenshots that went from this:

To this:

And most recently, to this:

We’ve also seen this trailer, which shows us precious little of the game that’s supposedly been in continuous development for almost 12 years:

Why it’ll be delayed: “How did I know Duke Nukem Forever was going to be on this list?” you’re probably asking yourself right now. We’ll tell you how: for those who’ve been following it over the (nearly) 12 years it’s been in development, the title is synonymous with delays. You can’t even say the word “delay” without some asshole popping up in the background and screaming “Duke Nukem Forever!” At this point, it’ll be a massive surprise if it even sees the light of day within our lifetimes.

But there’s more to it than that. Every other game on this list is a game that we’ll be disappointed, if not heartbroken, to see delayed into 2009. Duke Nukem Forever will disappoint us if it does come out. This is partially because a 12-year delay has built up expectations for the game to impossible levels, but also because we (by which we mean “all game journalists, everywhere, without exception”) have grown to love making jokes at its expense.

We don’t want the game, we want to keep mocking it from now until Doomsday. And developer 3D Realms has given us plenty of fodder over the years; each new, absurdly miniscule announcement revives the seemingly dead horse just enough for us to pile on and joyfully bash its head with a tire iron. To see Duke Nukem Forever actually release would be a shock to the internet humor industry on par with Bush leaving the White House.

Wait, that already happened this year?

Shit.

Best-case scenario (if we’re wrong): Six new, thumbnail-sized screens will be released in June, prompting a hail of catcalls from the gaming press. Then the game will abruptly hit store shelves the following month, leaving no sound to fill the stunned silence but creator George Broussard’s mocking laughter.

Jan 27, 2009