I don't buy anymore read-only drives for my PC, so I'll buy a BD-R/RE when it's priced under 100€, maybe under 80€, if I still won't feel the urge when it's 99€. To replace the almost dying VHS I'll make my dad buy a DVD-R with HDD when we'll be able to get a >=160GB for less than 160-180€, the time is nearly here, BD can still wait as we haven't an HDTV yet and we want a bigger than our current 4:3 34" to be quite a bit cheaper than now. A combo BD player-DVD writer with >=160GB HDD could be fine, but we won't raise the price limit, so I don't think we'll find a cheap enough one before replacing the VHS isn't postponable anymore.

the best reason is that sony simply wont let blu ray fail.

I don't think blu-ray will fail, but 6 of the points in the article have very little bearing on the success/failure of blu-ray.

Hilariously enough his own article from January 5th about a guy who's not even watching HD television on his HD TV highlights Blu-ray's biggest problem, most people do just fine with standard def.

But clearly he has a solution for that in this article, we're not using massive HD projection systems, clearly if we all did that Blu-ray would blow us away. Just hang on a minute while I rush out to best buy and fork over one of those big piles of cash I just have laying around, and then I'll be able to notice a huge difference too!!!

1-6 are valid points, although kinda obvious.

7 is uncertain. PS3 sales might be significantly better in 2009 than 2008, but at this point it's far from guaranteed.

8 and 9 are challenges BR faces, not reasons it will succeed. Ways in which these problems are being tackled would be great, but this guy is just saying "they're working on a solution... take my word for it!"

It depends on what you call success.

If you rate success as sharing the spotlight with DVD and digital downloads, then yeah it will be successful.

If you define success as having the same market share as DVD at its peak, then no blu-ray will never achieve that level of success.

Important to remember that due to pirating issues the studios want BR to replace DVD ASAP. They will drop DVD at the first reasonable opportunity.

Important to remember that it's consumers, not providers, that decide what formats are used.  If consumers still want DVDs, consumers will get DVDs... or they'll start downloading the analog rips of BR movies that are still >= DVD quality, or they'll start looking into digital distribution, or any number of other solutions.

It's not content providers that decide what format people buy in; ask the RIAA.

Well, BD consortium may well be content with this "second choice" success, as it would happen in a very enlarged market, so even not reaching DVD's share, it could possibly exceed its absolute numbers.

Anyway DVD is getting its maximum spread during the last 2-3 years (even more on PC's, as prices dropped first under the $100 psychological threshold), since commodity priced players first, writers after, started appearing. In the same way BD won't get its best until these same conditions are satisfied. But this is about drives, blank media will gain the same success as soon as they get cheap, because their capacity is a clear advantage, OTOH recorded contents could struggle  more if not heavily helped by the majors, as as long as a consistent price difference will exist between the same title in BD and DVD, most people will buy more expensive BD versions only for the best movies and/or those with heavier use of effects, or the best photography, etc.