@ Ghost
There is a bigger picture quality difference between Blu-Ray and DVD than DVD and VHS.
So Blu-Ray is not DVD 1.5
| Gh0st4lifE said: Obvious reasons why it is failing : Blu Ray = DVD 1.5 Blu-Ray price = DVD 2.5 Economical crisis makes you think again. Downloadable content is cheaper, more practical, with a wider and more accessible choice, etc. It will never replace the DVD the way the DVD replaced the VHS. It might gain respectable market shares in some regions but it will never fulfill it's purpose. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Blu-Ray might be Sony's biggest mistake ever. It screwed the PS3 and it wasn't meant to synchronize with an economical crises. UMDs, MiniDiscs, etc. It's all part of a huge Betamax complex. Sony needs a therapy. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
Sony doesn't own the Blu-ray patent, or even 50%.
UMDs and Mini-discs (outside Japan) never reached 10% penetration. Weekly software revenues (BD/ BD+ DVD) is what I use as the number to measure market penetration.
"Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is TELL THEM THEY ARE BEING ATTACKED, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. IT WORKS THE SAME IN ANY COUNTRY." --Hermann Goering, leading Nazi party member, at the Nuremberg War Crime Trials
Conservatives: Pushing for a small enough government to be a guest in your living room, or even better - your uterus.
| SMcc1887 said: @ Ghost There is a bigger picture quality difference between Blu-Ray and DVD than DVD and VHS. So Blu-Ray is not DVD 1.5 |
That may be true in terms of resolution, but in terms of picture degradation, artifacts, and other methods of measuring 'quality' which are more visible to the human eye than straight-up resolution, it is most certainly false.
Also, he used a movie from the 80s to prove that digital distribution doesn't have good enough quality? I can assure him it would be just as bad on Blu-Ray (if they ever bothered to give it a release)
Please, PLEASE do NOT feed the trolls.
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--Predictions--
1) WiiFit will outsell the pokemans.
Current Status: 2009.01.10 70k till PKMN Yellow (Passed: Emerald, Crystal, FR/LG)
| kowenicki said: reasons 5 and 6 are the only ones that matter... |
I second this assessment.
Good article. Reasons 5 & 6 though are redundant. Blu-Ray will not fail but I don't think it will completely replace DVD.
Alright, let's handle these in order:
1. Digital downloads will not eliminate the need for discs anytime soon.
I actually agree with this point, it will be a long time before we go to strictly "download only" market. That said Bluray is currently facing two very tuff apponents, digital downloads and dvd. Bluray will never be able to become as dominate as DVD's were, that is not to say it won't be successful, because it it up againt stronger and more compitition then DVD's ever were.
2. Having one clear standard is a big advantage.
This is as big of an advantage as it is a dissadvantage. Have one formate means less people waiting on the fence, but it also means that there is less insentive to drop prices to beat the compitition. When HD DVD was still competing, prices were falling like crazy. Once HD DVD droped out, prices have stablized and will fall much more slowly. And right now, price is the determianing factor as to whether Bluray will succed.
3. Blu-ray isn't going to be replaced by another disc format anytime soon.
I would worry less about what could replace it and more about if it will ever replace DVD's.
4. Prices for large-screen HDTVs will continue to drop.
True, and this should help Bluray adoption, but Bluray players are not going to go 1:1 with HD TV's. I have had an HDTV for over a year now and I still don't have a bluray player.
5. Prices for Blu-ray players will continue to drop.
"By this time next year, there will be several sub-$100 Blu-ray players on the market. " Although I hope this is true, you cannot garentee this. And it will have to drop below $100 befor it will become mass market freindly.
6. Prices for Blu-ray discs will drop to near DVD price levels.
*see points 2 & 6. These points apply to the discs as well. And the price of the discs have been falling even more slowly then the players.
7. Sony will sell lots of PlayStation 3 game consoles.
Not without a price drop. And because of Sony's fiscal troubles, that will not happen in 2009.
8. Sony can't afford to have Blu-ray fail.
Although I agree with this to some extent, right now Sony doesn't have the fiscal muscle to do anything about it.
9. Sony and its partners will figure out a way to have Blu-ray resonate with the public.
This is based more more on opion and hope then fact. Sony and partners already know how to make Bluray resonate with the public, drop the prices for both players and discs to near DVD levels. But right now they are more worried about profit margins then market share. (Doen't this sound fimilar for Sony)
Also, point 6 is simply wrong. The entire reason content providers want to move to blu-ray is because DVD got too cheap for them. Too many of DVD's sales are happening at the cheap 'budget' prices, and it's too hard to sell a movie at a higher price. Blu-Ray means they can prop up the prices somewhat.
To the content providers, Blu-Ray disks being at the cost of DVDs means that they lose more money per sale. Right now the increased cost of blu-ray is only partially because of the increased cost of the disk; the vast majority of it is for the content owners, who are not about to eliminate the extra 10+ dollars they make per sale. Also, for the foreseeable future, you won't be seeing the bargain-bin Blu-Rays that have been giving the content industry so mush angst in their DVD incarnations. Heck, you may never see them on Blu-Ray, as by the time the format matures to the point where the content industry is ready for them, Digital Distribution may have taken over the long tail part of selling content. DVD had both the blockbusters and the long tail; it was much cheaper to print a DVD than to record a VHS tape, after all. The content industry is purposely not putting these old movies on blu-ray right now, to keep average profit per disc sold high, and reduce the incentive to buy cheap, older movies over more expensive, new movies. That won't be changing quickly.
Please, PLEASE do NOT feed the trolls.
fksumot tag: "Sheik had to become a man to be useful. Or less useful. Might depend if you're bi."
--Predictions--
1) WiiFit will outsell the pokemans.
Current Status: 2009.01.10 70k till PKMN Yellow (Passed: Emerald, Crystal, FR/LG)
It has been my opinion for a while that Blu-Ray will only start selling seriously when it gets near DVD prices. It will take a very long time for people to migrate though, personally I won't migrate before prices are similar AND my DVD players break down.
At that point I may well be downloading all of my movies though...
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957
Since when have Sony ever wanted to be part of a single format? If it's not their format they don't want to know. I find the biggest problem Sony have is with their image. The amount of things they have done to limit what people can do creatively is appalling! I will never follow a company that narrow minded.
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"Hey, Steve, just because you broke into Xerox's house before I did and took the TV doesn't mean I can't go in later and take the stereo." - Bill Gates (Microsoft Corporation)
Bill Gates had Mac prototypes to work from, and he was known to be obsessed with trying to make Windows as good as SAND (Steve's Amazing New Device), as a Microsoft exec named it. It was the Mac that Microsoft took for its blueprint on how to make a GUI.
""Windows [n.] - A thirty-two bit extension and GUI shell to a sixteen bit patch to an eight bit operating system originally coded for a four bit microprocessor and sold by a two-bit company that can't stand one bit of competition.""
Blu Ray = DVD 1.5 I suppose in much the same way the PS3 and the 360 are PS2 1/2 and x-box 1.5? Blu-Ray price = DVD 2.5 This is nonsense, Blu-ray discs do not cost two and a half times more, around here the average difference is 0-15% (most new DVD's cost around 200 NOK here and Blu-ray the same, some DVD's are cheaper but so are some Blu-ray discs). I seriously doubt that the rest of the world suffers from inflated Blu-ray prices which sends the cost up to our equivalent of 500 NOK, which is what a videogame costs brand new here. Economical crisis makes you think again. Digital purchase is still a purchase and not a cheap one at that, despite links of distribution being cut, saving costs in theory. Downloadable content is cheaper, more practical, with a wider and more accessible choice, etc. In the same context you probably think of TV's and players, where you have to actually own a TV and a player, you also need to own a PC and an internet connection, which is not cheap if you have the kind of speeds you'll need to download HD content and most online films aren't even true HD, especially in the audio department (because of storage issues, how long would it take an average person to download a 40GB movie? The supposition is also that mainstream audience will suddenly start a media revolution where the symphony of downloading, using all manner of cables, getting codecs and software to even get to see the movies on a big screen when they can just have a TV and a player, pop in a disc and look at it, much the same easy way the have the last 25 or so years (VHS was very similar in use). See how banks are still in use, stores still exist despite there being online, often cheaper alternatives? Things take time and a wholly digitalized, fully internet based society is a long way away still which most people will realize if they take a look around. It is growing, but not to a point where all things optical will be obsolete within a couple of years other than among a few gaming and video nerds. Blu-ray is often accused of being a "technophile" product and concept, yet it is miles more user friendly and adoptable than any current online service for mainstream users. It will never replace the DVD the way the DVD replaced the VHS. It might gain respectable market shares in some regions but it will never fulfill it's purpose. Edit; this point may hold slight merit, allthough we don't know exactly what the purpose of Blu-ray is at this point. If it is indeed to overtake DVD's in revenue and lifetime sales, I have to award a single point for this one, I don't think that will happen either to be honest. Perhaps quite close but not the whole mile, in the end. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Blu-Ray might be Sony's biggest mistake ever. It screwed the PS3 and it wasn't meant to synchronize with an economical crises. UMDs, MiniDiscs, etc. It's all part of a huge Betamax complex. Sony needs a therapy. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ UMD and MiniDisc were inferior formats and had no way of or the intention of shoving CD's and DVD's out of the market, and they were also almost solely propelled by Sony with much less force behind them. These formats were meant to coexist with current ones, a plan that failed spectacularly, which no one denies. So because these two (three with Betamax) failed, Blu-ray must as well? Kind of like the Wii then? The N64 and the Gamecube had poor sales and we all see how badly the most recent addition to the Nintendo family is doing... Oh, and have you forgotten about CD's? Primarily developed and distributed by Phillips and Sony, it can hardly be counted as a failed format in my book. Your desire to see Blu-ray fail, whether it be because you don't like Sony (which could be the case, there'a a lot of that recently) or because you feel satisfied by DVD's, will not affect the overall performance of the format. It is on its way up, it has a long climb ahead of it, but to deny that it is indeed climbing, is sheer folly, no less.
|
Old points, all invalid in context. Nice effort, though.
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