Hurricane Dean is now a category three hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph and gusts passing 150 mph.  As the storm enters some of the warmest ocean waters in the world, and upper level wind shear diminishes to a negligable level - Dean should grow into an absolute monster, rivaling three of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history - Hurricane Gilbert (a storm in 1988 with 200 MPH sustained winds, the lowest air pressure in the western hemisphere since 1935), Hurricane Ivan ("Ivan the Terrible", a storm that ruined much of the Carribean and the USA Gulf coast in 2004), and Hurricane Wilma in 2005 (the lowest air pressure in the western hemisphere since Gilbert in 1988).

The above storms had very similar conditions to develop in, and moved at similar speeds, with a similar diameter to Dean.  Every six hours for the last 36 hours computer model forecasts have shifted Dean's ferocity higher, and Dean's track slightly northward.

Right now, 1/3 of all computer models show Dean hitting Houston as a Category 5 with sustained winds of 165 MPH. 

At the very least, expect a massive hike in oil prices in the coming weeks...

But if I was in Houston, given the flooding from Erin, I'd be terrified.  Recent huge hurricanes have hit New Orelans (still recovering from Katrina), Mississippi (Ivan, Katrina), and Mexico (Wilma) quite hard, so expect things to get pretty interesting this weekend into Tuesday evening....

Are you tracking it? Dean still is being watched in south florida as well, the national hurricane center has us in the cone. If dean hits the U.S as a cat 5 it would be the 2nd one to have in the history of the U.S.

The thing is going to explode at night, thats what happened to wilma with a 8mile wide eye. Expect it to be a cat 5 by tomorrow morning. Its looking wierd on the track its starting to jog to the W-NW instead of its West track...The upper low thats going to move dean to the north isnt moving fast enough, and dean is moving at 22mph...

There is a lot of uncertainty in these predictions that look more than a few days ahead. It's projected course right now is bringing it to the US-Mexico border in about 5 days, but with a huge margin of error.

If you're anywhere near, check the NHC a lot.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

WOW...I'm in alert mode then!!! I live in Delaware is Dean going to hit Delaware??

here is the most recent picture of Dean(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/175524.shtml?3day#contents), and while oil prices have came up a bit, it is way to early to "expect" oil prices to leap up, as it might not hit around houston at all.

I don't look at the official National Hurricane Center forecast too much since it is a consensus to give a range.

I look at the model projections.  The model that 'yesterday' predicted the situation closest to 'today' is the one I go with - because that means to me that model has the best handle on the forces guiding the storm.  So you follow that model until the environment changes or until it is proven wrong, with slight nods to the consensus of other models.

The model that was most accurate predicting today - yesterday, and yesterday - two days ago says:

Houston, Texas - Watch it - Dean is coming.  Fast.

Let me tell you something, the models arent always correct, I remember last year, when hurricane ernesto was expected to move towards the same area, the pattern in the atmosphere was almost the same, all models were pricise saying ernest going to move straight west. Did it happen? No.

this is a better view of the hurricane straight from miami

weather.gov/miami 

LOL at this being my first post on a games board, but I watch weather stuff a lot. Right now it is way too soon to expect anything. All of the models have essentially 0% accuracy after 3 days or so. In my mind anywhere on the gulf coast is still in potential trouble since the main reason that it is projected for Texas is a large High Pressure system that is in place over the southeast. If that were to move to the east anywhere in the Gulf would be in danger. Also if you want to see updates with all sorts of computer models, a blog, forums, etc. go to weatherunderground.com. And again I must laugh at how this is one of my first posts here. :)

I hope one of two things happen.

1: It hits Mexico at whatever category. I don't go to the resorts there and happening there won't greatly increase gas prices here.

2: I'd prefer this one myself. It weakens and then makes a rather sharp northerly turn and continues out into the atlantic missing mainland US and not affecting our oil supplies, gas refineries.

(I bet opec is behind Dean!!!) **shakes fist at OPEC**