| TheSource said: I don't look at the official National Hurricane Center forecast too much since it is a consensus to give a range. I look at the model projections. The model that 'yesterday' predicted the situation closest to 'today' is the one I go with - because that means to me that model has the best handle on the forces guiding the storm. So you follow that model until the environment changes or until it is proven wrong, with slight nods to the consensus of other models. The model that was most accurate predicting today - yesterday, and yesterday - two days ago says: Houston, Texas - Watch it - Dean is coming. Fast. |
Let me tell you something, the models arent always correct, I remember last year, when hurricane ernesto was expected to move towards the same area, the pattern in the atmosphere was almost the same, all models were pricise saying ernest going to move straight west. Did it happen? No.
this is a better view of the hurricane straight from miami
weather.gov/miami
