It's about $6billion so far. They're aproaching operating profit recently if trends have continued, but they may not due to the recession. The PS2 didn't make $6 billion profit in it's time, why do you think they can do it with the PS3 with such a weaker position?

I selected other. I think SCE will get downsized to some degree but I also think Sony other Sony divisions will receive major cuts. Stringer is finally getting the leeway from Japanese division of Sony to make the huge cuts necessary to get Sony back on track.

Although SCE is losing money currently, it was a banner division in the past and I think it will be again once Sony gets its house in order. I think the loss/leader strategy will be a thing of the past for SCE. SCE has already shifted more focus to first and second party studios. if they return to a PS1 style hardware model, (relatively inexpensive, powerful, and easy to develop for) I can see SCE being Sony's most profitable division.

You make it sound like "a few billion" is just peanuts.

Those "few billion" is actually over 3 billion with a profitable PS2 and PSP included, so the actual losses on the PS3 is much higher.
Those "few billion" are MORE than the PS2 made in its whole lifetime.
Those "few billion" will NEVER be earned back by the PS3.

You clearly don't have an idea of what a game will earn. GT5, which is Sony's biggest game by far, will likely cost around $100 million to make. The return for Sony will likely be $40 per sold game. Even at 10 million copies (ridiculous amount) it will "only" be a $300 million profit on the game.

SCE will be affected. All areas of sony will. It will prevent sony from being able to get the best third party exclusives, it will lower their advertising dolllars, prevent a much needed price cut, and hurt the quality of first party games because of lowered funds.

Your estimate doesn't take the strong Yen into account, nor the fixed costs like personnel (as you said). SCE has 4000-5000 employees and many are even paid in Yen.

All in all, I'm expecting a $200m+ loss for SCE in this quarter. The main problem is the weak Euro, which is an argument for keeping this division around.

Nothing will happen, SCE is a huge part of Sony they did not get rid of their other divisions when they were struggling they sure as hell wont get rid of SCE which pretty much held up the entire corp for a few years.

J gov is already working on the yen problem, and they sure as hell are not like the retards in Washington.

The first 2 options are out of the question, I'm not sure why they were included. I'd say they are going to cut or sell other divisions than SCE.

I'm basicaly just watching as this develops and your hypothesis is one I'm looking at. I don't think there is a reason for the PS3 to be discontinued. After backing the PS3 during it's unprofitable years, there is no reason to throw it out the door when it's just about to be profitable. They also have a lot of money invested in games that would go to waste if it was discontinued. So I don't see this is a possibility at all.

What makes me think of your hypothesis is this: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=55541&page=1

Could Sony be moving to software in the gaming business? Will there be a PS4? I'm quite curious about this. I'll just wait and see now...

EDIT: You had a link there to the same post I linked to. I guess this is what I get for not clicking on it before... bah... not editing my post... but I basically just said the same thing as you. :P

There are extreme options for both sides of the optimism spectrum.

edit- actually I could add two more extreme options:

- Sony goes bankrupt

- Sony beats the crap out of competitors who go bankrupt as a result.

That's true I guess. The "business as usual" option is just as extreme and unrealistic as the 2 I mentioned.