2.5% of the total movie market is very low. If you add that the average BD buyer will be a videophile that will buy more films than the average costumer, the uptake percentage is close to dramatic. No wonder they resort to graphs with the PS3 included.

And the numbers you JUST POSTED show that's very unlikely.  If, for example, that was true, then 3.1 (BR 2008) + 6.5ish = 9.6.  That means you've already hit the percentage of households listed in your chart, and not a single standalone player was purchased prior to 2008.  So, either BDA's presentation is lying, or Adam's Media Research's estimates were wrong.  which are you counting on to be more accurate?

Keep in mind, we have factual (total shipments per sony) and statistically-derived (PS3, per vgc) sales for 2 of the 3 unknowns.  Chances are, a 3rd party estimation of the third isn't going to be as accurate as the official numbers.

Of course, in that post he assumes that BD's cost twice as much as DVD's, which is not true at all (he even says so himself, "no idea, just threw out numbers"). Here the BluRay discs cost about 25% more than DVD's and not twice as much and I doubt that it would be that different in the US.

I'm not dissing your main argument, there aren't a whole lot of BluRay's in homes yet, just like there aren't a whole lot of any new format in the first few years, but let's at least be fair where the price and revenue is concerned.

You are correct. Though DVDs debuted in late 1997, stand alone players remained a premium product until around the time The Matrix DVD (DVD's tipping point, IMHO) hit the shelves in late 1999/early 2000. When the PlayStation 2 went on sale in Japan (March 2000), at a price of $399 it was half as much as the average standalone DVD player (~$800). Sony estimated then that over 3M Japanese bought a PS2 solely because it was the cheapest DVD player on the market, and it was further dropped to $299 only six months later in Japan to align its price with the North American launch in October.

Stand alone DVD players plummeted in price in America after the PS2's Japan launch, to sub-$200 levels, during that summer of 2000. Before the PS2, DVDs were almost exclusively a luxury item for business travellers who watched movies on their laptop computers. Three years after the PS2, DVD rentals officially surpassed VHS rentals.

That said, the problem with your argument that it's an unfair comparison is that there isn't a practical way to rectify the timeline and make it fair. What happened, happened. We have to go by the numbers given, and those number indicate that BD is being adopted faster than DVD was because of the PS3, and thanks to that, at this point in their respective lifetimes BD players cost a quarter of what DVD players did in year three. It will be interesting to see where this goes by year six or seven, though. It isn't logical that BD can continue at a growth rate that outpaces HDTV adoption.

While your are correct when it comes to hardware, what ultimately maters most is the fact that disc sales are skyrocketing. So at the end of the day it doesn't matter if it's standalone player or ps3 owners purchasing movies, just that they are buying them.

And what do you think the average DVD cost is? There is no way it is higher than 15. And I would be surprised if even that high. the Average person does not buy dvd's at the new release price of 18 dollars or whatever it is. There are always so many deals for dvd's out all the time and even new releases on the first week are like only 13 dollars or something. Then next week they pop back up to 18.

And I know I have not ever seen a blu ray movie under 20 for sure. And actually cna't remember seeing one under $25, but i'm sure there are.

Hard numbers to corroborate your argument: monthly standalone US DVD player sales throughout its lifespan:

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

Interesting tidbit: there are about as many standalone DVD players in the US as PS2s in the world

If you assume 100 Million households, and look at PS3 sales in the US, over 85% of the graph would represent PS3 sales

Link please? I'm not saying you're wrong, but irstupid's post suggests otherwise, and while his alculation may be a bit on the negative side, he at least has revenue figures in his post that suggest that BD sales are anything but skyrocketing.

I don't need hard numbers to corroborate my argument, I've got a memory like a steal trap when it comes to tech!

That link does illustrate one of my points perfectly though. Look at DVD players sales in August 1999 and before, then September 1999 and after. HINT: The Matrix DVD hit shelves Sept 21, 1999.

When The Matrix was released on DVD, player sales DOUBLED overnight. Impressive.