I think most of us  Wii gamers have a special place in our hearts for Super Mario Galaxy, it single handedly legitimized the Wii to all legacy Nintendo gamers (if they had not already been won). I know that was the case for me, it showed me Nintendo still had it, and they delivered the best game in almost a Decade (Since OoT). before it came out, my personal goal for the game was 8 million, it will be passing that soon enough. Ok so to the point, we all know that it wont be the title with the flashest sales, and by the looks of things it might have trouble staying the Wiis own top 10 (should be fine, but it WILL be on the lower side of the top 10).

So where do you think SMG will head. There is really no WW data for SM64 to compare it, but it definitly will no come close to where that came in Japan, Mario 64 was also one of top 2 system sellers for the N64, the Wii however, has many I believe rank above it. I think from here on out it will have steady legs, not Amazing NSMBs legs, but good legs. Kinda like this game

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Super+Mario+64+DS+-+DS&reg2=All&game2=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=230

I know the games are very different but I think it gives us a good idea on how a 3d mario will sell over time on a Successful platform (rapidly growing userbase). The most obvious difference is that SMG got of to a huge start and M64DS was a launch title. Basically i think we take what Mario 64 ds is doing the past few years and take it on to SMG's huge start.

Mario 64 DS has sold about 1.1-1.2 million each of the last 3 years or so with little slowdown, I think SMG will do similiar but may actually track a bit higher.

Ok so here is my prediction - for lifetime.

Now - about 7.9 million after NA data will be posted.

I think it will hit 9 million sometime this year, and be sitting at about 9.2-9.4 million at this time next year, so I expect it to sell about 1.3-1.5 million this year.

I expect it to hit 10 million in mid to late 2010, and then settle at 10.5 or so at this time 2 years from now. So I expected it to sell about 1.1-1.3 million in 2010.

Then in 2011, which I think will be the last full year with out a new Nintendo console, I expect it to sell about 900k more. Which would put it at 11.4 million heading into 2012.

From there I think it will sell 700k to 1 million the rest of the Wii's dying days, the lower end if it dies fairly quick, the higher end if it goes PS2 on us.

So my total Lifetime Prediction for Super Mario Galaxy IS

12.1 to 12.4 Million

Which would make it the best selling 3d mario yet. I do not think it has a chance in hell to Catch Mario 64 in Japan, but the huge userbase increase in others it will defitly offset, the totals in NA should be similiar.

Several things could throw this really out of wack.

1. SMG is being undertracked currently
2. SMG is being overtracked currently
3. The sequel to SMG could kill it, but at the same time it could boost it...
4. Price, if it gets ANY Greatest Hits treatment sales could be higher overall (especially the dying years part)

I predict its LTD is about 7.8 million. What it will end at is another matter entirely, though.

^you know what I meant.

I think you have a decent prediction, but I find some of your arguments a bit skinny.

So I'll do it another way, a bit more statistical (of course - it's me after all :P)

SMG sold 2549K in 2008.

By quarter:

Q1: 1179K

Q2: 663K

Q3: 421K

Q4: 786K

So as we can see, it is dropping pretty swiftly (compared to many other very high-profile Wii games).

It's likely that we see something ala

Q1: 325K

Q2: 275K

Q3: 225K

Q4: 450K

For next year.  That's 1275K. Almost in your expected range. 

I do, however, not see 2010 being as high as you claim. I see it rather being ala

Q1: 200K

Q2: 175K

Q3: 150K

Q4: 300K

Which is just 825K.

Then the sales will dip to ~ 500K for 2011.

Whicever quarter gets a price cut will probably get an increase by 25-33%, and the following by 10-20%.

Also, around 200K could be sold [2012 and out, more if the next Nintendo console releases later (but that's just a matter of 150K)

So somewhere around 3M is where it sits at for me. That's a bit lower than I expected when I wrote this...

So my overall prediction: 11-11.3M

hmm, I guess the difference is you see a continued decay, and I think the decay will be minimal.

I see it selling 14-20k all year in NA, and 8-14k all year in others during normal weeks with next holidays being about 65-70% of what it was this year.

It is Mario, and possibly the best Mario, I cant see why it would not continue to sell.

Look at Zelda TP, it is hass less mass market appeal than Mario (still a heck of alot, and was a GC port) and still managed 500k in NA alone last year.

I see SMG selling at least 700-750k in NA, and in other it should get around 500k. The next year take about 100k off of each so 600-650 and 400k.

Don't think it will get to 12 million. I predict 11 million.

I'm going to make a giant leap of faith and say 15 million LTD, don't ask me how or why I came to this conclusion but somehow Mario will pull it off.

Yes he will.  Riding a bike or driving a kart.  But not jumping from galaxy to galaxy.

Around 12 million seems to be right.

 Well Nintendo could decide to bundle Galaxy with the Wii someday which would help, also when Galaxy get a price drop that should also factor in a significant amount of sales. Plus it could always pull of a Super Mario 3!!!!