SMG LTD Sale Predictions

[Oyvoyvoyv]

I think you have a decent prediction, but I find some of your arguments a bit skinny.

So I'll do it another way, a bit more statistical (of course - it's me after all :P)

SMG sold 2549K in 2008.

By quarter:

Q1: 1179K

Q2: 663K

Q3: 421K

Q4: 786K

 

So as we can see, it is dropping pretty swiftly (compared to many other very high-profile Wii games).

It's likely that we see something ala

Q1: 325K

Q2: 275K

Q3: 225K

Q4: 450K

 

For next year.  That's 1275K. Almost in your expected range. 

 

I do, however, not see 2010 being as high as you claim. I see it rather being ala

Q1: 200K

Q2: 175K

Q3: 150K

Q4: 300K

 

Which is just 825K.

 

Then the sales will dip to ~ 500K for 2011.

 

Whicever quarter gets a price cut will probably get an increase by 25-33%, and the following by 10-20%.

Also, around 200K could be sold [2012 and out, more if the next Nintendo console releases later (but that's just a matter of 150K)

 

So somewhere around 3M is where it sits at for me. That's a bit lower than I expected when I wrote this...

 

So my overall prediction: 11-11.3M