SMG LTD Sale Predictions

[bigjon]

I think most of us  Wii gamers have a special place in our hearts for Super Mario Galaxy, it single handedly legitimized the Wii to all legacy Nintendo gamers (if they had not already been won). I know that was the case for me, it showed me Nintendo still had it, and they delivered the best game in almost a Decade (Since OoT). before it came out, my personal goal for the game was 8 million, it will be passing that soon enough. Ok so to the point, we all know that it wont be the title with the flashest sales, and by the looks of things it might have trouble staying the Wiis own top 10 (should be fine, but it WILL be on the lower side of the top 10).

So where do you think SMG will head. There is really no WW data for SM64 to compare it, but it definitly will no come close to where that came in Japan, Mario 64 was also one of top 2 system sellers for the N64, the Wii however, has many I believe rank above it. I think from here on out it will have steady legs, not Amazing NSMBs legs, but good legs. Kinda like this game

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Super+Mario+64+DS+-+DS&reg2=All&game2=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=230

I know the games are very different but I think it gives us a good idea on how a 3d mario will sell over time on a Successful platform (rapidly growing userbase). The most obvious difference is that SMG got of to a huge start and M64DS was a launch title. Basically i think we take what Mario 64 ds is doing the past few years and take it on to SMG's huge start.

Mario 64 DS has sold about 1.1-1.2 million each of the last 3 years or so with little slowdown, I think SMG will do similiar but may actually track a bit higher.

Ok so here is my prediction - for lifetime.

Now - about 7.9 million after NA data will be posted.

I think it will hit 9 million sometime this year, and be sitting at about 9.2-9.4 million at this time next year, so I expect it to sell about 1.3-1.5 million this year.

I expect it to hit 10 million in mid to late 2010, and then settle at 10.5 or so at this time 2 years from now. So I expected it to sell about 1.1-1.3 million in 2010.

Then in 2011, which I think will be the last full year with out a new Nintendo console, I expect it to sell about 900k more. Which would put it at 11.4 million heading into 2012.

From there I think it will sell 700k to 1 million the rest of the Wii's dying days, the lower end if it dies fairly quick, the higher end if it goes PS2 on us.

So my total Lifetime Prediction for Super Mario Galaxy IS

12.1 to 12.4 Million

Which would make it the best selling 3d mario yet. I do not think it has a chance in hell to Catch Mario 64 in Japan, but the huge userbase increase in others it will defitly offset, the totals in NA should be similiar.

Several things could throw this really out of wack.

1. SMG is being undertracked currently
2. SMG is being overtracked currently
3. The sequel to SMG could kill it, but at the same time it could boost it...
4. Price, if it gets ANY Greatest Hits treatment sales could be higher overall (especially the dying years part)