You started a good topic here, but to have an interesting discussion, you had to provide numbers since I'm to lazy to check where the games are currently.

Thankfully godemperor said that Halo is ahead more than a million, so I can say something sophisticated.

A million divided through 20k makes 50, so this suggests that it might be possible for Galaxy to overtake Halo within this year. But since Galaxy seems to have failed to become as iconic for the Wii as SM 64 was for the N64, I guess that it won't be able to keep that advantage of 20k weekly over Halo, so I say it will never make it.

Another good discussion would be though Wii Galaxy, while selling great, failed to have the same appeal Mario Kart Wii has. We were too euphoric about it apparently. Anyone remembers Sqrl's sig? I was with him on this though.

And for your other question, I think SMG will take waaaay longer than six weeks to make it to a million in Japan. If I remember correctly, it is at 992k something, selling about one k last week. After the holidays though, this number will fall sharply (it was way lower before the holidays) so I'd go as far and say it may take 25 weeks.

Yes SMG is at about 992k in Japan but the data reported this week will be from the highest selling software week from Japan's year. So i will expect a slight boost. Before Japan's holiday boost it was sellin just shy of 1k a week. So if it gets decent numbers in this weeks data i'm gonna stick to my 6 wk. prediction.

It' at 992,810 and sold 1,623 for the week ending 28th Dec.

It will however go up next week because Japan sales stay high for the first week in January, then it will fall.

So 992,810 + 1,900 ish = 994,710

then add 1,000 for the week after, followed by a few weeks averaging 500.

So yes, it won't make it in 6 weeks, but it could do it in under 10 weeks, and will have certainly made it by 15 weeks

Yes. But It will take a long time. End of last quarter maybe.

Halo 3 is looking at 11-11.5M LT sales (my expectations, just to clarify that. But please, argue them).

Can Super Mario Galaxy make that?

Well, let's check.

Okay, sales in 2008: 3.1M

That's without a price cut.

Okay, quarterly.

Q1: 1179K

Q2: 663K

Q3: 456K

Q4: ~ 900K

So, I'd say we're looking at (for next year)

Q1: 400-450K

Q2: 350-400K

Q3: 300-350K

Q4: 600K

Total: ~ 1750K

That will bring SMG's total up to 9.5-9.75M.

I expect Halo 3's sales (up to that point) to be at around 10M (which means slightly above 1M for next year).

So I expect them to end pretty dead on even. Within 1M of each other for sure.

Edit:
Just to put it in here, this is the current situation.

SMG - 7.81M (1.3M sold last half of last year)

Halo 3 - 8.88M (0.9M sold last half of last year)

SSB: Brawl -  8.26M (2.3M sold last half of last year)

yeah, probably sometime this year.

So another good comparison would be:- can SMG overtake Halo before the end of 2009 then? I think it received a better holiday boost this year.

@ Nintendo_fanboy. I own both SMG and Kart. I would have to say i prefer Kart but that's just down to preferring the genre. SMG received amazing acclaim but that doesn't always help sales. Maybe Kart is more mainstream?

 That could be a good question.

" Will Mario Kart Wii overtake Super Mario Galaxy + Super Smash Bros. Brawl's combined sales by the end of 09?"

Considering how far ahead of the 360 the wii will be in a couple of years, yeah, i guess it will pass it

Mario kart Wii could do it i suppose. It seems to be capable of almost anything right now! Although without checking figures i think it will take a while. It is showing amazing legs though.