You started a good topic here, but to have an interesting discussion, you had to provide numbers since I'm to lazy to check where the games are currently.
Thankfully godemperor said that Halo is ahead more than a million, so I can say something sophisticated.
A million divided through 20k makes 50, so this suggests that it might be possible for Galaxy to overtake Halo within this year. But since Galaxy seems to have failed to become as iconic for the Wii as SM 64 was for the N64, I guess that it won't be able to keep that advantage of 20k weekly over Halo, so I say it will never make it.
Another good discussion would be though Wii Galaxy, while selling great, failed to have the same appeal Mario Kart Wii has. We were too euphoric about it apparently. Anyone remembers Sqrl's sig? 
I was with him on this though.
And for your other question, I think SMG will take waaaay longer than six weeks to make it to a million in Japan. If I remember correctly, it is at 992k something, selling about one k last week. After the holidays though, this number will fall sharply (it was way lower before the holidays) so I'd go as far and say it may take 25 weeks.
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