Will Super Mario Galaxy ever overtake Halo 3 sales worldwide?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

Halo 3 is looking at 11-11.5M LT sales (my expectations, just to clarify that. But please, argue them).

Can Super Mario Galaxy make that?

Well, let's check.

Okay, sales in 2008: 3.1M

That's without a price cut.

Okay, quarterly.

Q1: 1179K

Q2: 663K

Q3: 456K

Q4: ~ 900K

 

So, I'd say we're looking at (for next year)

Q1: 400-450K

Q2: 350-400K

Q3: 300-350K

Q4: 600K

Total: ~ 1750K

 

That will bring SMG's total up to 9.5-9.75M.

I expect Halo 3's sales (up to that point) to be at around 10M (which means slightly above 1M for next year).

So I expect them to end pretty dead on even. Within 1M of each other for sure.

 

Edit:
Just to put it in here, this is the current situation.

SMG - 7.81M (1.3M sold last half of last year)

Halo 3 - 8.88M (0.9M sold last half of last year)

SSB: Brawl -  8.26M (2.3M sold last half of last year)