His math is fine.  You just don't like it.  And the 5 year cycle is a myth, 6 years is much more common, and 7 is quite likely for the 360 since most of its contemporaries launched a year later.  

Mmm, 10 million - 30% = 7 million, - 30% = 4.9 million =), it is not like "7 million year after year", may be it will keep the 5 million mark, but i dont think it will be more than that no matter which game came out.

Again, the GCN did far worse and it had the whole Nintendo's First party to feed it, but still, it did worse . .  what would do  the PS3 and Sony in case all the 3rd party run away ?

And about the generations cicles, it depends on the console u r talking about, for the leader it may take 6 years (SNES,PSOne, PStwo), but for the bottom line it may reach 5 years (N64, "GCN") or even less (Saturn, DC, Xbox).

I would not place the X360 next to DC or Xbox, but it is more likely to be a "N64" of this generation, not too far from the leader, but totally not a chance to get closer, the GCN was more like a trans-generation console for Nintendo, it had to fix all the mistakes for the N64 while making time for the next level (Wii).

Dont know if u have heard that the "PS3 will be a 10 year system" . . . well, guess who heard that before =) . . ., the GCN was "supposed" to last until 2008, and those words were pronounced by Nintendo just to give security to the gamers and so they would buy the system, BUT there was no 3rd party support for the GCN and it almost died in its 4rd year.

The same happened to several systems before and that's what i m talking about the PS3, no matter what they do, they wont be able to overtake the X360 and the Wii.

Unless they pull it from the market, there is nothing anyone can do to stop it from selling much more than 40.

silly question IMO.

I will pose an equally ridiculous question:
Will the Wii ever sell over 50 million?

The gamecube wasnt outselling or close to, any of it's competitors. You can't compare the ps3 with the gamecube. Especially because of the difference in price and the fact that the ps3 is much more widely recognized.

21 million to go before PS3 reaches 40 million

Of course they will. Crazzyman has explained how it will reach 100 million by 2012 in another thread.

ROFL! How do you even say that with a straight face? This is Sony Defense Force level stupidity, I cannot take anything you say seriously ever again.

On topic: probably late 2010 to reach that number, possibly faster if we have a dramatic price cut. OP sigs is also a (imo) joke but at least thats arguable.

Hmmm...at this point, maybe in 2011 or late 2010.

I cannot help but notice that others attacked me, but did not explain one critical thing. Where the hell is the PS3 to get these sales. What will be the impetus to maintain the current level of sales. Do not make the same mistake again, and just assume that it being a Playstation means it will sell ten million a year.

The console is out of price position, has the weaker high definition library, has fewer exclusives, and is most likely fast running out of early adopters. Yes eventually the console must actually sell on merit, and that usually means the console must have a positive differentiation from its competition. Basically the PS3 is a pale imitation of the 360. That is a huge problem that not even Nintendo had to deal with. No matter what Nintendo was always a strange alternative. Their first party lineup was a drastic high quality departure from the competition. Sony doesn't even have that. They cannot be the less popular, but still viable alternative.

I dont know why people are comparing PS3 sales to that of GameCube, their demographic is completely different. A future proofed (blue ray) home entertainment system vs a GC? give me strength.

It was Sony's choice to put all their eggs in the blueray basket in order to line it up with their other areas of business so they are on a completely different mission to that of M$ and nintendo, will it work out for them? TIME will tell!

Making grand pronouncements, after just 2 years of the system at its most expensive, especially negative ones when we dont know how the whole media business is going to play out over the next few years is laughable really.

What i would say, given the near 20m sales (at a price that no one can afford apparently), throw on top of that the exclusives coming just this year alone and then say that another 20m (inclusive of future lower prices) is not possible in its lifetime, i think your struggling for credibility there.

I wont even dignify 2.5m 09' sales with a response.