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abcdario on 02 January 2009
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Final-Fan said:
abcdario said:
Lord N said:

[...]

It will be around for at least another three years, so even if sales dropped off by 30% and it only sold an average of 7 million per year and died off after the 2011 holiday season, it would easily reach 40 million.

[...]

Je je je, not a math guy here, if the PS3 sells 10 million and we see a 30% fall in sales, it wont sell 7 million year after year, it would like " 7 Million for 2009, 4.9 million for 2010 and may be the same 4.9 million for 2011", i dont think it will sell less than 5 million a year cause not even the GCN fell that bad (or ... was close :P)

Ah, about "The next generation", i think it will start by the end of 2010, the X360 would have reached theis 5 years cicle and i bet they want to get rid of the RROD, besides that, the more time they give to the Wii competing with those 20th century controls, the less chances they will have to over take that pattern.

His math is fine.  You just don't like it.  And the 5 year cycle is a myth, 6 years is much more common, and 7 is quite likely for the 360 since most of its contemporaries launched a year later.  

 

Mmm, 10 million - 30% = 7 million, - 30% = 4.9 million =), it is not like "7 million year after year", may be it will keep the 5 million mark, but i dont think it will be more than that no matter which game came out.

Again, the GCN did far worse and it had the whole Nintendo's First party to feed it, but still, it did worse . .  what would do  the PS3 and Sony in case all the 3rd party run away ?

And about the generations cicles, it depends on the console u r talking about, for the leader it may take 6 years (SNES,PSOne, PStwo), but for the bottom line it may reach 5 years (N64, "GCN") or even less (Saturn, DC, Xbox).

I would not place the X360 next to DC or Xbox, but it is more likely to be a "N64" of this generation, not too far from the leader, but totally not a chance to get closer, the GCN was more like a trans-generation console for Nintendo, it had to fix all the mistakes for the N64 while making time for the next level (Wii).

 

Dont know if u have heard that the "PS3 will be a 10 year system" . . . well, guess who heard that before =) . . ., the GCN was "supposed" to last until 2008, and those words were pronounced by Nintendo just to give security to the gamers and so they would buy the system, BUT there was no 3rd party support for the GCN and it almost died in its 4rd year.

The same happened to several systems before and that's what i m talking about the PS3, no matter what they do, they wont be able to overtake the X360 and the Wii.