For two years now analysts have been predicting the imminent demise of the Wii. They have become a bit quiet recently as it chalks up ever more amazing sales success. Yet there are a few reasons why what we are seeing now is the end of the boom.

• Any bubble bursts just as it reaches its biggest size. And the Wii is now selling in massively unsustainable numbers. It just cannot go on.

   The old bubble bursting theory.  You sure are right, a bubble bursts when it reaches it's biggest size.  Keep on guessing as to when it will reach it's max size.  If you just keep saying it, one of these days you'll be right, Bruce.  And I'm sure you will celebrate how right you were, when it does finally happen.

Edit:   Ok, when I wrote this, I was thinking bubble bursting was more talking about when sales would decline.  Ya know, like a reasonable person would think would happen.  I wasn't thinking Bruce actually would think sales would drop to almost nothing once the bubble burst.

• The penetration of HDTVs has increased massively over the last two years. Thus cruelly exposing the Wii’s last generation graphics to far more people.

• The Xbox 360 is cheaper.

• The Xbox 360 is a huge amount better than the Wii. It has far more games and vastly more good games. And it has Live, by far the best online gaming portal. Gradually the public will come round to understanding these realities.

• The Wii has a very weak game library. The first party games, a few good third party games. Then lots of dross shovel ware. And game consoles are for playing games.

• Nintendo have now rolled out all their great and famous properties on the Wii. So they have very few places left to go for the stream of AAA titles needed to sustain a platform.

• The Wii is not making much money for many publishers so they are voting with their feet and allocating their resources to platforms that will make them money.

• Most of the Wii customer base is the very casual “toy” market. They will be very fickle as they move onto the next “must have” trend. The Wii will become tired.

• Money is getting a lot tighter as the world tips into recession. Casual frippery, like most Wii purchases, will be an early casualty.

• Most people likely to buy a Wii already have. In terms of market penetration Nintendo are now going to suffer from the law of diminishing returns.

So there we have it. Plenty of reasons why the Wii must eventually face the inevitable. And because the boom has been so massive the collapse of sales will be equally dramatic. And when will this be? Let’s put it this way, we are experiencing the last big Christmas for the Wii.

For two years now analysts have been predicting the imminent demise of the Wii. They have become a bit quiet recently as it chalks up ever more amazing sales success. Yet there are a few reasons why what we are seeing now is the end of the boom.

• Any bubble bursts just as it reaches its biggest size. And the Wii is now selling in massively unsustainable numbers. It just cannot go on.
• The penetration of HDTVs has increased massively over the last two years. Thus cruelly exposing the Wii’s last generation graphics to far more people.
• The Xbox 360 is cheaper.
• The Xbox 360 is a huge amount better than the Wii. It has far more games and vastly more good games. And it has Live, by far the best online gaming portal. Gradually the public will come round to understanding these realities.
• The Wii has a very weak game library. The first party games, a few good third party games. Then lots of dross shovel ware. And game consoles are for playing games.
• Nintendo have now rolled out all their great and famous properties on the Wii. So they have very few places left to go for the stream of AAA titles needed to sustain a platform.
• The Wii is not making much money for many publishers so they are voting with their feet and allocating their resources to platforms that will make them money.
• Most of the Wii customer base is the very casual “toy” market. They will be very fickle as they move onto the next “must have” trend. The Wii will become tired.
• Money is getting a lot tighter as the world tips into recession. Casual frippery, like most Wii purchases, will be an early casualty.
• Most people likely to buy a Wii already have. In terms of market penetration Nintendo are now going to suffer from the law of diminishing returns.

So there we have it. Plenty of reasons why the Wii must eventually face the inevitable. And because the boom has been so massive the collapse of sales will be equally dramatic. And when will this be? Let’s put it this way, we are experiencing the last big Christmas for the Wii.

For two years now analysts have been predicting the imminent demise of the Wii. They have become a bit quiet recently as it chalks up ever more amazing sales success. Yet there are a few reasons why what we are seeing now is the end of the boom.

• Any bubble bursts just as it reaches its biggest size. And the Wii is now selling in massively unsustainable numbers. It just cannot go on.

Because what applies to fluid dynamics must also pertain to gaming sales. Its also fails to explain why the PS2 and DS bubbles never "burst".

• The penetration of HDTVs has increased massively over the last two years. Thus cruelly exposing the Wii’s last generation graphics to far more people.

And yet the proliferation of HD cable, satellite, and BluRay lags behind significantly. People got HD because they had no choice when the bought a new TV.

• The Xbox 360 is cheaper.

The XBox 360 Arcade is cheaper. Until you buy a hard drive. And a game. Then its more expensive again by about $100.

• The Xbox 360 is a huge amount better than the Wii. It has far more games and vastly more good games. And it has Live, by far the best online gaming portal. Gradually the public will come round to understanding these realities.

Better is a subjective term, and currently the market finds waggle "better" than HD graphics and Live. Moreover, the Wii's  waggle will get substantially better in 2009 with MotionPlus, while the 360 will not be upgrading to HDPlus graphics.

• The Wii has a very weak game library. The first party games, a few good third party games. Then lots of dross shovel ware. And game consoles are for playing games.

The library that currently exists for the 360 wasn't enough to vault it past the Wii. What is coming out in 2009 to make that library so much better?

• Nintendo have now rolled out all their great and famous properties on the Wii. So they have very few places left to go for the stream of AAA titles needed to sustain a platform.

And yet they will find more. Punch Out, Icarus, Pikmin, FZero, Star Fox... not exactly tapped out yet, nor will they want for sequels.

• The Wii is not making much money for many publishers so they are voting with their feet and allocating their resources to platforms that will make them money.

Source?

• Most of the Wii customer base is the very casual “toy” market. They will be very fickle as they move onto the next “must have” trend. The Wii will become tired.

Rainmaker argument. Keep repeating it, and eventually it will be right. We are now entering year three of "its a fad!"

• Money is getting a lot tighter as the world tips into recession. Casual frippery, like most Wii purchases, will be an early casualty.

But not the 360, which, despite the initial price tag, is still more costly. And if sales lag, Nintendo could drop the price by $50 without hesitation, and maybe as much as $100 if it were pressed hard enough.

 Most people likely to buy a Wii already have. In terms of market penetration Nintendo are now going to suffer from the law of diminishing returns.

And I suppose the underwear gnomes have taken to stealing Wii's from store shelves, because I still can't find one to save my life.

So there we have it. Plenty of reasons why the Wii must eventually face the inevitable. And because the boom has been so massive the collapse of sales will be equally dramatic. And when will this be? Let’s put it this way, we are experiencing the last big Christmas for the Wii.