olanjiaona said:
For two years now analysts have been predicting the imminent demise of the Wii. They have become a bit quiet recently as it chalks up ever more amazing sales success. Yet there are a few reasons why what we are seeing now is the end of the boom.
- Any bubble bursts just as it reaches its biggest size. And the Wii is now selling in massively unsustainable numbers. It just cannot go on.
The old bubble bursting theory. You sure are right, a bubble bursts when it reaches it's biggest size. Keep on guessing as to when it will reach it's max size. If you just keep saying it, one of these days you'll be right, Bruce. And I'm sure you will celebrate how right you were, when it does finally happen.
Edit: Ok, when I wrote this, I was thinking bubble bursting was more talking about when sales would decline. Ya know, like a reasonable person would think would happen. I wasn't thinking Bruce actually would think sales would drop to almost nothing once the bubble burst.
- The penetration of HDTVs has increased massively over the last two years. Thus cruelly exposing the Wii’s last generation graphics to far more people.
Another thing Bruce holds on to. I can't speak for everyone, but me and several other people have purchased a Wii and already had an HD TV. Imagine that.
True. It has been for a while. Wii is still selling better.
- The Xbox 360 is a huge amount better than the Wii. It has far more games and vastly more good games. And it has Live, by far the best online gaming portal. Gradually the public will come round to understanding these realities.
Not all gamers want online. I agree Live is the best online service, but not everyone wants online. Especially the 'casual toy market' that Bruce claims is the Wii's customer base later in this article. And see my comment below about games.
- The Wii has a very weak game library. The first party games, a few good third party games. Then lots of dross shovel ware. And game consoles are for playing games.
The Wii certainly needs more quality 3rd party support, but we can all argue about how strong the Wii game library is. But, the strength of the Wii library is certainly opinion, and not everyone agrees with Bruce's view. And Shovelware tends to play a game called, 'follow the leader'.
- Nintendo have now rolled out all their great and famous properties on the Wii. So they have very few places left to go for the stream of AAA titles needed to sustain a platform.
I'm not sure what he's saying here. It's a bad thing they have released their great properties for Wii? Is he saying they can't possibly come up with any more? I'd like him to explain this one. Nintendo certainly can make more games, old and new IPs.
- The Wii is not making much money for many publishers so they are voting with their feet and allocating their resources to platforms that will make them money.
Wait, I may be wrong here. But haven't publishers even admitted to just rushing out games on the Wii to make money to support their costly HD games?
- Most of the Wii customer base is the very casual “toy” market. They will be very fickle as they move onto the next “must have” trend. The Wii will become tired.
What is the next 'must have' trend in video game consoles? Are you talking about the next generation? Well, that has a couple years at least before it comes, and it would be very expected for Wii sales to decline at that point. Great prediction Bruce.
- Money is getting a lot tighter as the world tips into recession. Casual frippery, like most Wii purchases, will be an early casualty.
You would think. I guess we will see. I thought the gaming industry would've been hit at least a little bit by the recession by now. But it seems to keep on truckin.
- Most people likely to buy a Wii already have. In terms of market penetration Nintendo are now going to suffer from the law of diminishing returns.
Bruce must have bought into Crazzyman's prediction that the Wii will stop selling once all the Marioboy's have bought one. Because, once all the Marioboy's buy a Wii, the market will be saturated.
So there we have it. Plenty of reasons why the Wii must eventually face the inevitable. And because the boom has been so massive the collapse of sales will be equally dramatic. And when will this be? Let’s put it this way, we are experiencing the last big Christmas for the Wii.
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