These predictions are good for traditional media.
Yeah but then they try and say 2009 will be the year of the PS3, which is just crazy
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)
yeah how's that really bad? its not great but its not bad.
Bad is all the people who guessed 60 million for the wii end of 2008, its doing amazing but its not god.
| coolestguyever said: yeah how's that really bad? its not great but its not bad. Bad is all the people who guessed 60 million for the wii end of 2008, its doing amazing but its not god. |
Bad is saying that 2009 will be the year of the PS3, when we all know its not going to happen, as they've been saying it every year
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)
| haxxiy said: ^ *looking at sig* ... I see... |
My predictions are irrelevant to this issue, its purely from a rational standpoint, first off PS3 and 360 don't effect Wii sales, the reason is pure economics, the market for gaming hardware operates in an Oligopoly/monopolistic competition framework, with few makers, who build similar but different products, the key in such a market is product differentiation, the more different your product is from your competitiors, the more like a monoploist you can act and the less likely price and bundling will affect your sales, because your products will lack substitutability, with the Wii there is strong differentiation, a PS3 or a 360 just won't replace it, but a PS3 and 360 are very close to each other, so price between those two matters, but for a Wii even with the 360 undercutting it, it isn't affected, because it gives an experience that the others cannot replace.
No matter the game or the price drop the PS3 won't affect the Wii sales, only the 360 will be affected
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)
Okay, either I'm misunderstanding something, or a lot of other people are.
These analysts made "predictions" for year-end sales a couple of weeks before the year ended, and were off by millions. Is that not bad?
Systems owned: Nintendo 64, GameCube, Xbox 360, Atari 7800, Genesis, PlayStation, Dreamcast, Game Boy Advance, Nintendo DS.
Year-end predictions (April 6, 2008):
I think screen digest were saying back in 06 that the Wii would sell only 20 million by 2010 or something, so i'm not surprised they make bad predictions
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)
| agabara said: Okay, either I'm misunderstanding something, or a lot of other people are. These analysts made "predictions" for year-end sales a couple of weeks before the year ended, and were off by millions. Is that not bad? |
Are you assuming they used VGC numbers to make their predictions? They likely used NPD, MediaCreate, Famitsu, Chart Track-GfK and official shipped figures.
Considering that, they seem quite valid to me.
The rEVOLution is not being televised
You do realise the VG Chartz numbers aren't entirely accurate? The predictions are remarkably close to this site's numbers though, which suggests the correct figures are in this region.
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