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Forums - Sales Discussion - Really bad predictions for console sales

agabara on 27 December 2008
Viper1 said:
agabara said:
Okay, either I'm misunderstanding something, or a lot of other people are.

These analysts made "predictions" for year-end sales a couple of weeks before the year ended, and were off by millions. Is that not bad?

 

Are you assuming they used VGC numbers to make their predictions?    They likely used NPD, MediaCreate, Famitsu, Chart Track-GfK and official shipped figures.

Considering that, they seem quite valid to me.

Yes, I guess I have, but do the different sources really differ by that much?

 



Systems owned: Nintendo 64, GameCube, Xbox 360, Atari 7800, Genesis, PlayStation, Dreamcast, Game Boy Advance, Nintendo DS.

Year-end predictions (April 6, 2008):

  • DS: 94 million (96.0)
  • Wii: 46 million (44.4)
  • PSP: 45 million (43.6)
  • X360: 27 million (27.3)
  • PS3: 24 million (19.4)
  • PS2: 124 million (123.7)
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agabara on 27 December 2008
ferret1603 said:

You do realise the VG Chartz numbers aren't entirely accurate? The predictions are remarkably close to this site's numbers though, which suggests the correct figures are in this region.

 

Yes, I realize that VGChartz numbers aren't entirely accurate, but a prediction of 8 million yearly sales for Xbox 360 vs. 11 million by VGChartz numbers seemed to be a big discrepancy for me.

So I guess this all could be excused if VGChartz's numbers get adjusted down by a few million in the future. I didn't realize that this was considered a normal amount.



Systems owned: Nintendo 64, GameCube, Xbox 360, Atari 7800, Genesis, PlayStation, Dreamcast, Game Boy Advance, Nintendo DS.

Year-end predictions (April 6, 2008):

  • DS: 94 million (96.0)
  • Wii: 46 million (44.4)
  • PSP: 45 million (43.6)
  • X360: 27 million (27.3)
  • PS3: 24 million (19.4)
  • PS2: 124 million (123.7)
Viper1 on 27 December 2008
agabara said:
ferret1603 said:

You do realise the VG Chartz numbers aren't entirely accurate? The predictions are remarkably close to this site's numbers though, which suggests the correct figures are in this region.

 

Yes, I realize that VGChartz numbers aren't entirely accurate, but a prediction of 8 million yearly sales for Xbox 360 vs. 11 million by VGChartz numbers seemed to be a big discrepancy for me.

So I guess this all could be excused if VGChartz's numbers get adjusted down by a few million in the future. I didn't realize that this was considered a normal amount.

 

You have to remember that the starting point numbers for the year would be different as well.  You can't use VGC numbers as the starting point for their predictions either.  VGC may have 11 million on the year but so too might those other tracking firms.  We don't know what numbers they had for Jan 1, 2008.

 

The discrepenscies can vary quite lot, especially as time goes on.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Alby_da_Wolf on 27 December 2008
MontanaHatchet said:
How is that "really bad?"

I agree, they are on the low side, but not disastrous, each console will manage to beat them so this will make them appear to fare better than predictions. It seems almost done on purpose to inject some optimism in this period of crisis...



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