I love reading "blast from the past" threads. In retrospect, this thread makes CrazzyMan look like a visionary.

Haha blizzid/Lostplanet22 - you amuse me.

All people's predictions were made on the assumption that contemporary VGCHartz numbers were accurate. Crazyman's prediction was only right because as it happened, a few days after this thread opened, the Wii got adjusted down by over a million, losing near on a full 1%

Yes, that's already been stated numerous times. It doesn't change the amusement value in the slightest.

No way the latest price cuts of PS3 and 360 combined with their much bigger games line ups will see that the Wii may never reach 50% market share. PS3 at $299. 360 priced between $199 and $299. Wii stuck on the $249 price mark with sales well down on previous years. The Wii's competition has strengthened and the race will be closer for the second half of the console sales generation. Wii will still win the console wars but will never get to 50% market share.

Funny that... I never said it did.

What I was actually laughing at you in particular for was the laughable claim that "it makes crazyman look like a visionary" It is simply not true. This thread is a brilliant example of how bad Crazyman is at taking in facts and spitting out predictions.

I don't know if it will actually hit 50%, but it will certainly climb, and if it does not hit 50% then it will be close. Whoever wins the holiday season is whoever can manufacture the most machines, and the Wii wipes the floor with the other two in that regard. Nothing else matters, because everything is going to sell out, just like it always does.

Of more interest to me is the January-March period, once the holiday excitement dies down. What will happen then?

Actually, the winner is whoever sells the most machine. Which will undoubedly be the Wii. The real question being, though they'll sell the most, can they outsell the PS3 and 360 combined this holiday? I say no. The Wii will never reach 50% marketshare. I still firmly believe, as I stated long ago, it will come really close, but will eventually end the generation around 45% (at best).

This is true, but during the holiday season they amount to the same thing. Even the unpopular consoles always sell out around the holiday season (PS3/2006 being an anomaly, but the same thing happened in the NES' first year), so whoever makes the most ends up selling the most.

Potentially yeah, I can see the Wii doing it.

The Xbox 360 and PS3 pricedrops are an indication of their devaluation; I do feel the Wii is more valuable a console to many more people than the PS3 or Xbox 360 because it's a console for anyone. The Xbox 360 is easily aimed at male teenagers who are still young enough to think "hardcore" things and blood are cool, while the PS3 is aimed mostly at people in their 20's. The Wii has a clear lock on the mature gamer and family markets.

My bet is still on Jan 2010 for Wii to hit 50% marketshare.

Ultimately, it comes down to how many people rush out to buy PS3/slim and 360 at reduced prices.