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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD undertracking, VGchartz overtracking, or a little of both?

Louie on 23 December 2008
nordlead said:
jesus kung fu magic said:
Louie said:

At the end of November we had Wii at 17.6 million, Xbox360 at 14.1 million and PS3 at 6.7 million units.

NPD had Wii at 15.4m, 360 at 12.4m and PS3 at 6.1m units.

As Canada, Mexico, etc. are roughly 10% of the sales we get to 15.9 million Wii, 12.7m Xbox360 and 6.1m PS3.

That means we have Wii 0.5m higher than NPD, Xbox360 0.3m higher and PS3 is completely spot on. (Correct me if I'm wrong, I'm a bit tired right now).

 

The multiply it by 1.1 every week not the annual total.(The J man thinks)

1.1*(10+10+10) is equivilent to (1.1*10)+(1.1*10)+(1.1*10)

so you don't make much sense

Who doesn't make much sense? Louie or the J-man?

 



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GTAIV08 on 23 December 2008

theres no such thing as NPD overtracking or undertracking, cause NPD is the best and closest we get apart from the actual sales numbers from the big 3.



nordlead on 23 December 2008
Louie said:
nordlead said:
jesus kung fu magic said:
Louie said:

At the end of November we had Wii at 17.6 million, Xbox360 at 14.1 million and PS3 at 6.7 million units.

NPD had Wii at 15.4m, 360 at 12.4m and PS3 at 6.1m units.

As Canada, Mexico, etc. are roughly 10% of the sales we get to 15.9 million Wii, 12.7m Xbox360 and 6.1m PS3.

That means we have Wii 0.5m higher than NPD, Xbox360 0.3m higher and PS3 is completely spot on. (Correct me if I'm wrong, I'm a bit tired right now).

 

The multiply it by 1.1 every week not the annual total.(The J man thinks)

1.1*(10+10+10) is equivilent to (1.1*10)+(1.1*10)+(1.1*10)

so you don't make much sense

Who doesn't make much sense? Louie or the J-man?

 

j-man, but you aren't much better, cause you didn't add your %10 sales properly. 15.4m + 10% = 16.9m, not 15.9

 




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
11/03/09 Desposit: Mod Bribery (RolStoppable)  vg$ 500.00
06/03/09 Purchase: Moderator Privilege  vg$ -50,000.00

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Max King of the Wild on 23 December 2008
largedarryl said:
NPD tracks sold to consumer as well. I did a quick check for the Wii numbers and VG is pretty close.

NPD lists 15.3 for Wii
Vg is currently at 20.03, then if you subtract the last 3 weeks of sales you get 17.69 for NA at the end of November. This number *0.9 = 15.92 million consoles and that is an error of 2.0%

I don't plan on doing any of the other consoles, but 2% error is negligible.

 

 your math is severly off if you think thats 2% difference



nordlead on 23 December 2008
GTAIV08 said:
theres no such thing as NPD overtracking or undertracking, cause NPD is the best and closest we get apart from the actual sales numbers from the big 3.

LOL. Just because there are no other professional sources doesn't mean NPD is correct. They could overtracking/undertracking reality, and it can be proved by using fiscal data. However, that would be VERY hard to prove since they would have to overestimate the values enough to have more sold items in the US, then shipped to NA as a whole.




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
11/03/09 Desposit: Mod Bribery (RolStoppable)  vg$ 500.00
06/03/09 Purchase: Moderator Privilege  vg$ -50,000.00

Nordlead Jr. Photo/Video Gallery!!! (Video Added 4/19/10)

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largedarryl on 23 December 2008
Max King of the Wild said:
largedarryl said:
NPD tracks sold to consumer as well. I did a quick check for the Wii numbers and VG is pretty close.

NPD lists 15.3 for Wii
Vg is currently at 20.03, then if you subtract the last 3 weeks of sales you get 17.69 for NA at the end of November. This number *0.9 = 15.92 million consoles and that is an error of 2.0%

I don't plan on doing any of the other consoles, but 2% error is negligible.

 

 your math is severly off if you think thats 2% difference

Sorry for that incorrect math, it would be a 4% difference if you want that number, although it doesn't change my conclusion.  Is there anything else you think is wrong in my calculation?

 



TWRoO on 23 December 2008

NPD could be off by as much as 5% either way each month.



Louie on 23 December 2008
nordlead said:
Louie said:
nordlead said:
jesus kung fu magic said:
Louie said:

At the end of November we had Wii at 17.6 million, Xbox360 at 14.1 million and PS3 at 6.7 million units.

NPD had Wii at 15.4m, 360 at 12.4m and PS3 at 6.1m units.

As Canada, Mexico, etc. are roughly 10% of the sales we get to 15.9 million Wii, 12.7m Xbox360 and 6.1m PS3.

That means we have Wii 0.5m higher than NPD, Xbox360 0.3m higher and PS3 is completely spot on. (Correct me if I'm wrong, I'm a bit tired right now).

 

The multiply it by 1.1 every week not the annual total.(The J man thinks)

1.1*(10+10+10) is equivilent to (1.1*10)+(1.1*10)+(1.1*10)

so you don't make much sense

Who doesn't make much sense? Louie or the J-man?

 

j-man, but you aren't much better, cause you didn't add your %10 sales properly. 15.4m + 10% = 16.9m, not 15.9

 

I got my 15.9 million figure by taking 17.6m - 1.7m = 15.9m... one of us is thinking the wrong way around I hope it's not me lol

 



tombi123 on 23 December 2008
TWRoO said:
^So is America (in fact, as I think it is "Americas" that ioi tracks... it is actually 2 continents)

 

I know America is a continent, but the US isn't ;-P



nordlead on 23 December 2008
Louie said:
nordlead said:
Louie said:
nordlead said:

1.1*(10+10+10) is equivilent to (1.1*10)+(1.1*10)+(1.1*10)

so you don't make much sense

Who doesn't make much sense? Louie or the J-man?

 

j-man, but you aren't much better, cause you didn't add your %10 sales properly. 15.4m + 10% = 16.9m, not 15.9

 

I got my 15.9 million figure by taking 17.6m - 1.7m = 15.9m... one of us is thinking the wrong way around I hope it's not me lol

 

Well, IF canada/mexico is 10% the size of USA, then you would multiply USA*1.1 = NA. To get from NA to the correct way to get from NA to USA would be NA/1.1 = USA

Which with VGChartz numbers would mean (for wii) 17.6m/1.1 = 16m units in USA. Even if you just took 90% from NA sales, you would get 15.84m, which would round down to 15.8m




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
11/03/09 Desposit: Mod Bribery (RolStoppable)  vg$ 500.00
06/03/09 Purchase: Moderator Privilege  vg$ -50,000.00

Nordlead Jr. Photo/Video Gallery!!! (Video Added 4/19/10)