Sorry - I largely just repeated Swoosh2000's point. Hadn't spotted it initially.

Yes, definitely.

It has had a better first year than the PS2 and a better 2nd year than the PS2, and they're still increasing production so it will have a much better 3rd year than the PS2.

The Wii is the PS2 of this generation, but it's cheaper, has better graphics, has online, Virtual Console, WiiWare, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, motion controls (and a wide variety of controllers and control schemes per game), way better marketing (Ellen, Oprah, Colbert, South Park, the Oscars, etc.), and is better at market-expanding (it's in retirement homes, physical rehab clinics, and cruise ships all over the world now).

Compared to the PS2, it has more expensive competition than the PS2 did, and unlike the PS2, new Wii games are the cheapest new games of this generation.

All of these factors have snowballed into the fastest-selling console of all time.

I can't fathom a single possible scenario in which the Wii does not outsell the PS2 by a very large margin.

I see Wii ending at 140-160M. Ps2 will end at ~ 140M. Wii should end just slightly above Ps2, having a similar (perhaps smaller?) growth than the growth from Ps1 to Ps2.

The real growth this gen lays in that all consoles are selling decently. We're looking at a 30% increase for overall sales, but just 10% for the lead console. That's a good thing really.

What I believe is more important: Will the Wii outsell the Ps2 in software (~ 1.25 billion copies)?

Wii is tracking along with it (SW wise) and this will be really interesting.

PS: The real growth this gen is actually PsP + DS. They will make a 300% increase over last gen.

DS + PsP will sell more than all previous handhelds combined.

DS alone has a chance at equalling all previous handhelds combined (although that's a slim chance).

No

Until lately I would have said "no way" with confidence, since it lacks features that even the PS2 had -- DVD playback and a high-attach games library (sorry, I just cannot count WiiSports and WiiPlay), even at this stage in its lifetime.

These days I'm starting to feel as though this "new demographic" almost doesn't really qualify as "gamers" in the traditional sense, and thus I realize that I have *no* idea how many such people there are in the world. The DVD playback of the PS2 (a cool, sorta new thing, at the time) made it appeal to the "casual gamer" of the last generation -- NPD says 70% of PS2 owners used their PS2s as DVD players, primarily. It was probably just enough to push on-the-fence, would-be gamers into buying a PS2.

The Wii is a different, and strange, animal. Lots of people buy Wiis for kids, and are attracted to the "grown-up" aspects of software like WiiSports, WiiPlay, and WiiFit as a side benefit. Whether or not these same people are eventually drawn into the "gamer" fold is the question. Will they buy software? How many of them are there? Will 3rd parties even provide enough quality software to grow the gaming market in the Wii userbase?

I still have to say "no" -- the Wii will not surpass the PS2. I feel like I'm on some shaky ground saying it though.

Absolutely. A terrorist attack on Nintendo headquarters in Kyoto might stop it, but even then probably not.

It has to. It has a far greater library of games than the PS2. It is a software beast.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=PS2&reg3=All&weeks=130

It would take an antimiracle for it not to happen

When the PS2 came out, you couldn't get a DVD player for $20-$30. Now you can. DVD capabilities are no longer a valid selling point.

 This is where blind fanboyism comes to play