Until lately I would have said "no way" with confidence, since it lacks features that even the PS2 had -- DVD playback and a high-attach games library (sorry, I just cannot count WiiSports and WiiPlay), even at this stage in its lifetime.
These days I'm starting to feel as though this "new demographic" almost doesn't really qualify as "gamers" in the traditional sense, and thus I realize that I have *no* idea how many such people there are in the world. The DVD playback of the PS2 (a cool, sorta new thing, at the time) made it appeal to the "casual gamer" of the last generation -- NPD says 70% of PS2 owners used their PS2s as DVD players, primarily. It was probably just enough to push on-the-fence, would-be gamers into buying a PS2.
The Wii is a different, and strange, animal. Lots of people buy Wiis for kids, and are attracted to the "grown-up" aspects of software like WiiSports, WiiPlay, and WiiFit as a side benefit. Whether or not these same people are eventually drawn into the "gamer" fold is the question. Will they buy software? How many of them are there? Will 3rd parties even provide enough quality software to grow the gaming market in the Wii userbase?
I still have to say "no" -- the Wii will not surpass the PS2. I feel like I'm on some shaky ground saying it though.
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