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Forums - Sales - Will the Wii outsell PS2?

Groucho said:

The Wii is a very popular machine, and, if the last generation's sales trends repeat themselves, and the market has grown considerably, it would most certainly outsell the PS2.

Those are some big ifs. I think the market has grown, but the Wii has much stronger competition than the PS2 did at this point in its lifespan, and I have a strong feeling that Nintendo will end production of the Wii, replacing it with another upgraded version, before it ever hits 130M.

I'm not saying that the PS2 was "more popular", because it wasn't. I am saying that this generation is much different from the last, and expecting history to repeat itself here is folly.

Nintendo is not held back from the first to release a new console in the next gen -- the Wii will be easy to upgrade. It has lots of room to grow before Nintendo needs to do any serious R&D on a truly new platform. Why would Nintendo let Microsoft be first out the door at all? Microsoft has stated before that they plan to release first in the next gen as well.

Is it a good business plan to allow your competitors to bump up the "bar", and not respond in kind, when you are easily capable of doing so? Nintendo is so sure of the Wii's success for the next generation as well, that they will not produce a Wii HD... ever? They will abandon BC, because they like to push "reset" on their us erbase, and 3rd party development, each gene ration?

The Wii will not outsell the PS2 because it is so popular. The Wii HD will end its life before it can stretch to the PS2's number.  The most popular products spawn successors faster.  Nintendo loves to put out upgrades.  Only if you consider the next Wii to be a Wii (and then you may as well consider the GameCube a "pre-Wii", too), will it ever top the PS2.

And yet the Wii is still slaughtering them (especially PS3).

Unlikely, even the ill-performing Gamecube got a 5 years lifespan even though the fifth year was rather moribund. It would be out of character for Nintendo to release a successor to the Wii before 5 years, at which point it will be close enough to the 130 millions to get over them with past-its-prime sales during next gen.

So? The point is not how easy it will be to upgrade but whether it will be necessary to do so. The DS will be easy to upgrade to but its performance against the PSP makes any upgrade unnecessary (sp?) as higher power didn't help the PSP, higher power wouldn't necessarily help the DS successor or the Wii successor.

That way they show their hand. Plus, as long a MS continues to show an inability to capitalise on Nintendo's newfound markets they have little to fear from them (though they shouldn't rest on their laurels either). Letting MS go first also helps Nintendo get a better bang per buck in computing power thanks to moore's law so that their console can be cheaper and/or more powerful and/or smaller and/or more energy efficient (the Wii had 3 out of 4, not too shabby).

Where have they said that? Not only have they said quite clearly that they are always R&D'ing new systems but IIRC they also said that it was likely that the Wii's successor would be HD (though not 100% sure yet). I do not know what would make you think they would not ever make a HD console. One of their problem with HD was that it provided an improvement only to a small fraction of TV owning people but added a lot to the costs. As more people get to buy HDTV's this generation it will make more sense to make a HD console in a few years (i.e. next gen).

That's why the GBA had BC and the DS has BC (only dropping GB and GBC BC due to incompatible voltage) and why their second disc-based console had near total BC with their first and even added virtual BC with many older consoles. What you say just doesn't make sense, you seem to confuse Sony in the PS3 era with Nintendo (dropping BC).

This is just so stupid. Yeas, the major reason why a given currently very popular product doesn't outsell another formerly very popular product is because said currently very popular product is so popular. How long did the NES last? How many years did Nintendo wait to launch the SNES after the Megadrive/Genesis launched? Nintendo's history belies your conjectures.

Wrong, at least in Nintendo's case. The unsuccessful Nintendo home consoles have lasted 5 years (N64 96-01; GC 01-06) but the successful ones have lasted longer (SNES 90-96 and NES 83-90) as the flagship console. The only exception would be the GBA (01-04), but an exception does not a trend make.

An upgrade and a successor are not necessarily the same thing. The DS lite is an upgrade to the DS and the NES2 an upgrade to the NES and the PSTwo an upgrade to the PS2 but none of them are successors to the consoles they upgraded. If by 

If the only difference between the Wii and Wii HD is a hardware scaler but every Wii game works on both then it is the same console (just like the Gamecube with component out are the same as the one without it) just with minor differences. Or maybe you want to split the PSP base between PSP-1000, PSP-2000 and PSP-3000 and the PS2 base between PS2 and its slimmer sibling. I personally do not think it makes sense but if you want to split the PS2 this way go ahead, it will only make it easier for the Wii to overtake it and for the WiiHD to overtake the PS2 slim.

Of course, if the WiiHD is a true successor to the Wii (more powerful, WiiHD games not working on Wii...) then things will be different, but Nintendo's past actions do not point towards them getting such a machine out in the near future (next 3-4 years) but later on, when they feel they can do no better with the Wii, of course they will have a better console (maybe in the next 5-6 years) but by then the Wii will have shattered the PS2's record (or more exactly, shattered the record holder's record, which will be the DS by then).

Time to go to bed for me. Good night everyone and merry christmas if that's your thing.



"I do not suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it"

 

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Yes it will, it's currently outdoing the DS and the DS doesn't have long to go before the DS starts catching and passing the PS2.



PC Gamer
Groucho said:
scottie said:
JaggedSac said:
leo-j said:
JaggedSac said:
It has to. It has a far greater library of games than the PS2. It is a software beast.

 

 This is where personal opinion comes to play

Wow, I was just called a Wii fanboy.

 

 

Fixed

 

btw, I agree, I very much prefer the Wii's games, even to the whole of the PS2 library

 

@ rubangb - I'd tap that

 

I think you guys are part of that "new demographic" I was talking about, because... I don't think there are many PS2 owners who would agree with you.

Well I'm one PS2 owner who agrees.

 



No

Reason 1: PS2 is still selling, its not like its done

Reason 2: People will stop buying Wii's when its successor is released

Reason 3: Wii sales will slow down maybe not 2009 but by 2010 we will see a significant decrease

Reason 4: Increased competition from PS3 when its price is dropped



so PS2 is still selling when PS3 is already released for two years but "People will stop buying Wii's when its successor is released".

I have seen a few people posting that. Frankly, I don't understand why people expect the demand for Wii would suddenly become ZERO on the day of its successor is released.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

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Not unless you count the Wii HD as a Wii.



Heavens to Murgatoids.

coolestguyever said:
No

Reason 1: PS2 is still selling, its not like its done

Reason 2: People will stop buying Wii's when its successor is released

Reason 3: Wii sales will slow down maybe not 2009 but by 2010 we will see a significant decrease

Reason 4: Increased competition from PS3 when its price is dropped

 

 1)Wii is still selling, and won't stop anytime soon

2)Nope, it'll still sell for years, and its successor won't be announced for years

3)Price cut and new colors will keep sales up

4)ROFL, yeah right, Wii can also drop prices, and PS3 can't compete with Wii



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

To the guy who said Wii's library is better than PS2.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAH



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JaggedSac said:
It has to. It has a far greater library of games than the PS2. It is a software beast.

 

 

Really? I think the Wii has one of the worst if not the worst software lineups of all time. But that is just my opinion....i'm still not sure how the console sells to much. More power to Nintendo though for pulling it off.



Had to change my sig to get some moderator to quit bitching about it......

 

The Wii will outsell the PSP by mid 2010. At the rate that its selling it will eventually destroy the PS2's sales LTD.