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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predictions for 2009

TheBigFatJ on 21 December 2008
PalmiNio said:

Yes PC's are superior but releasing a game on PS3/360 allways gives superior sales as we can clearly see from the stats.


You're wrong. No RTS game and no MMO ever even came close on console to how well they've done on PC. I'm talking about generating more than 20x as much money on PC as they ever, ever have on consoles. It looks like you got your stats wrong. WoW alone has generated 1.5 billion dollars.

So why bother playing with the toys? It's a waste of Blizzard's development time. Blizzard will have more sales in Korea alone for SC2 than it ever would have on all consoles combined. Several time as many sales.

The Wii, at least, could control an RTS game. But the 360 and PS3 have control that's too dumbed down to handle anything past a basic shooter.

And blizzard's games will be around and played well after this current generation of consoles is gone. Starcraft from 1997 is still played by thousands daily online. Warcraft 3 is played by hundreds of thousands online. WoW is played by ten million online. It was around before this generation of consoles and it will be around after.

WoW alone will make more profit than the PS3 in its lifetime.



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Kantor on 22 December 2008
TheBigFatJ said:
PalmiNio said:

Yes PC's are superior but releasing a game on PS3/360 allways gives superior sales as we can clearly see from the stats.


You're wrong. No RTS game and no MMO ever even came close on console to how well they've done on PC. I'm talking about generating more than 20x as much money on PC as they ever, ever have on consoles. It looks like you got your stats wrong. WoW alone has generated 1.5 billion dollars.

So why bother playing with the toys? It's a waste of Blizzard's development time. Blizzard will have more sales in Korea alone for SC2 than it ever would have on all consoles combined. Several time as many sales.

The Wii, at least, could control an RTS game. But the 360 and PS3 have control that's too dumbed down to handle anything past a basic shooter.

And blizzard's games will be around and played well after this current generation of consoles is gone. Starcraft from 1997 is still played by thousands daily online. Warcraft 3 is played by hundreds of thousands online. WoW is played by ten million online. It was around before this generation of consoles and it will be around after.

WoW alone will make more profit than the PS3 in its lifetime.

Wow. What makes you think the Wii has the sheer processing power to handle Starcraft II? It has no keyboard, so no hotkeys, motion sensing is no replacement for a mouse. There's a reason RTS has stayed on PC all of these years, and it's because RTS only works with Keyboard and Mouse.

Diablo III, on the other hand, would work great on PS360. The controllers are designed to play RPGs (yes, they can play more than a "basic shooter", try and play Assassin's Creed on PC and you'll see what I mean) and it would definitely boost sales. The PC is not really run by any one company, so they have nothing to gain from making it PC exclusive. Plus, they've said they're looking into console versions (http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/55256)



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

numonex on 22 December 2008
Marty8370 said:

1. PS3 sales in Japan will top 5-6 million by end of 09
2. PS3 will get a price cut around summer 09
3. PS3 slim released Xmas 09
4. PS3 will outsell 360 09 yearly sales
5. 360's RROD will get alot worse not better.
6. PS3 will outsell 360 in Europe
7. More devs will switch too PS3 as lead console
8. More PS3 exclusives.

9. Wii sales will start too slow down.

You fail on most points here. Point number 5 was definitely not called for.

 



Paperdiego on 22 December 2008
leo-j said:
PS3 will make the biggest comeback in gaming history, if its price is cut by $100

quote me on it.

 

it wouldnt be bigger than nintendo.

loosing two rounds of consoles, being told to go the way of sega, coming out with two consoles so different and underpowered and then taking the crown away from sony??

 

that is the biggest comeback my friend



hello how are you.

numonex on 22 December 2008
numonex said:
Marty8370 said:

1. PS3 sales in Japan will top 5-6 million by end of 09
2. PS3 will get a price cut around summer 09
3. PS3 slim released Xmas 09
4. PS3 will outsell 360 09 yearly sales
5. 360's RROD will get alot worse not better.
6. PS3 will outsell 360 in Europe
7. More devs will switch too PS3 as lead console
8. More PS3 exclusives.

9. Wii sales will start too slow down.

You fail on most points here. Point number 5 was definitely not called for. Evidence proves the XBox 360 failure rates in newer models are much lower than launch models.

 

 

 



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PalmiNio on 22 December 2008
TheBigFatJ said:

You're wrong. No RTS game and no MMO ever even came close on console to how well they've done on PC. I'm talking about generating more than 20x as much money on PC as they ever, ever have on consoles. It looks like you got your stats wrong. WoW alone has generated 1.5 billion dollars.

So why bother playing with the toys? It's a waste of Blizzard's development time. Blizzard will have more sales in Korea alone for SC2 than it ever would have on all consoles combined. Several time as many sales.

The Wii, at least, could control an RTS game. But the 360 and PS3 have control that's too dumbed down to handle anything past a basic shooter.

And blizzard's games will be around and played well after this current generation of consoles is gone. Starcraft from 1997 is still played by thousands daily online. Warcraft 3 is played by hundreds of thousands online. WoW is played by ten million online. It was around before this generation of consoles and it will be around after.

WoW alone will make more profit than the PS3 in its lifetime.

 

Well.....read my text first. I'm not saying it has to be an RTS, Blizzard can do much more then that. And stop crying about WoW, I know that! BUT that can't last forever and a company should allways look for the next thing.

But there is more potential on making money if you go multi. As I said, Call of Duty Modern Warfare has sold more copies in 1 year then any other Blizzard game has done in a lifetime (same goes for GTA IV). With Blizzards great name they could easily make a console version of Diablo 3 and sell twice as much as they would on PC alone.

And I honestly think that the power of Blizzard is so great so if they wanna do a RTS game on console with Mouse and Keyboard support neither Microsoft or Sony would stop them.



Predictions for 2009:

360: 39-42 PS3: 31-34 Wii: 67-70

Future projection

Wii will hit 100 million before christmas 2010 (made december 2008)

NDS Family will have sold and shipped more then PS2 at the end of 2009 (made january 2009)

Kantor on 22 December 2008
RayRay102 said:
Kantor said:
RayRay102 said:

Well here are my prediction:

Q1: Halo Wars will outsell Killzone 2. That's a given, it's HALO!
GTA DLC #1 will sell over 1 million DLC. Possibly
At GDC: Bioshock 2 will be announced as a 360 timed exclusive. Unlikely
Mass Effect 2 is announced and will be X360 exclusive. EA doesn't do exclusives.

Q2: At E3:
Forza 3, Killer Instinct, and Dead Rising 2 announced for fall release. Likely
Megaton announcement for Microsoft: xbox wiimote(newton) announced with games being distributed via xbox live and will be bundled with every Arcade Unit at $199. No way. Diablo 3 is announced and will be x360 console exclusive with cross platform online gaming with PC. No*. And before the end of the conference, Peter Jackson came out of the stand and announced Halo Chronicles! Probably. A teaser at best, though.

Q4: Halo OSDT released and sold 3 million copies in one day. Halo 3 didn't sell that much in one day, how could ODST?
Alan Wake Yes, Splinter Cell Convicton Could be on PS3, Killer Instinct Never heard of it, Forza 3 GT5, Diablo 3 Not happening*, Mass Effect 2 multiplat?, Bioshoick 2 timed exclusive/multiplat, and Halo OSDT Expansion and Dead Rising 2 What is that going to do? will be too much for the PS3 (GT5, GoW3, R&CF 2009, Uncharted 2, Heavy Rain, inFamous, Killzone 2) come this fall.

And you said my predictions were ridiculous

*Okay, why would this happen? Blizzard has never made a game for the 360, what could they possibly stand to gain from making it 360 console exclusive? If they put it on 360, they'll put it on PS3.

 

Sorry, but Killzone is going head to head with Halo Wars in Q1. Head to head? Different consoles, different genres.

Yes GT5 will be a monster but judging from Forza 2 and the anticipation for 3, it shold hold up against GT5 in the states at least. No way. Gran Turismo 3 has sold better than Forza 1 and Forza 2 combined. Gran Turismo is among GTA, Halo, Mario and Pokemon as the strongest brand names in gaming.

There is already a contract in placed for a trilogy exclusive on the 360 so it will be exclusive to 360 regardless of EA. Fair enough.

Hey if MS paid for Timed exclusive for the first Bioshock, why is it so hard to believe it won't happen again. Because BioShock has sold 200k and effectively flopped on PS3 because people didn't want to pay today's price for yesterday's game. 2K won't let that happen again.

Halo ODST will sell about 3 million in first month not day. That was a typo. One month is possible of course. I would say one month is very likely.

Until I heard otherwise, Splinter Cell is still scheduled as an exclusive for the 360. That's what they say now. I'm sure I read an article which said they were looking into a PS3 version. It makes sense, right? Splinter Cell 1-4 were on PS2, SC4 was on PS3, there has been a Splinter Cell on PSP. Oh and also, it sucks now. Chaos Theory was amazing, Double Agent... not so much. 

Why is it so hard to believe in a Wiimote. The Mii/avatar was only the beginning and the Newton Wiimote like device was rumored not too long ago. It makes perfect sense for microsoft to test the water to see if they can get some of the casual gamers that are attracted to the Wii. Rumoured. There is no evidence to suggest this "Newton" exists.

For all I know none of these will be true but I am just brainstorming my wishes :D. Wishes. There we go. I suppose a lot of mine are wishes as well O.O

 

 

 



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

godemperor on 22 December 2008
Marty8370 said:

1. PS3 sales in Japan will top 5-6 million by end of 09
2. PS3 will get a price cut around summer 09
3. PS3 slim released Xmas 09
4. PS3 will outsell 360 09 yearly sales
5. 360's RROD will get alot worse not better.
6. PS3 will outsell 360 in Europe
7. More devs will switch too PS3 as lead console
8. More PS3 exclusives.

9. Wii sales will start too slow down.

thats already happende, because is much easier to port games to 360 from PS3 cos dev for PS3 is a pain.

 



numonex on 22 December 2008

I conservatively predict XBox 360 and PS3 will sell the same number of units in 2009. The 8 million gap between 360 and PS3 at the end of 2008 will remain unchanged at the end of 2009. PS3 may reduced by $50 price cut in 2009 but 360 will use counter price cuts plus value for money bundling. But it would not surprise me if XBox 360 jumped to a 10 million lead over PS3 by the end of 2009 due to the current state of the economy combined with people being reluctant to pay extra money for the PS3 that offers mainly the same games library as the XBox 360.



misterd on 22 December 2008
Kantor said:

11) MGS4 will not come to the Xbox 360, and will not be announced for the Xbox 360

 

And yet there will be at least one rumor a month stating otherwise.