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Kantor on 03 October 2009

3rd October 2009 UPDATE:

1) PS3- 34 million It won't happen, but I'll see how close I was.

2) X360- 39 million Seems about right.

3) Wii- 77 million Little high? Won't get close. Yup, WAY too high. Might as well just say FAILED.

4) PS3 will outsell the Wii on GT5 launch week Which will hopefully be in 2009. Not 2009. n/a.

5) God of War III will make it out in 2009 FAILED

6) PS3 will get a price cut in Q1 or Q2 FAILED

7) Final Fantasy XIII, if it makes it out in 2009, will sell better on PS3 than X360. Not coming in 2009. Except in Japan, where it will sell 0 copies on 360. Loophole, SUCCESS!

8) BioShock 2 will sell better on X360 (no brainer) Not 2009. n/a

9) Killzone 2 will have sold well over 3 million units by the end of the year Looking Unlikely.

10) Heavy Rain will not sell very well, 1.5 million by year end if it's lucky. Not coming this year. n/a. Also, WAY too high!

11) MGS4 will not come to the Xbox 360, and will not be announced for the Xbox 360 Pretty much confirmed. SUCCESS!

12) Trico will be named and scheduled for release sometime in 2009 Nah, it's 2010. FAILED.

13) Mass Effect 2 will be on PS3 Not likely. But still possible, maybe?

14) An MGS4 "Substance" game will be released, exclusively for the PS3 Not yet, and probably not happening.

15) Gran Turismo 5 will sell over 3 million WW on its opening week. Not 2009, probably too high. n/a

16) PS3 will beat 360 WW in sales for 2009. Extremely likely.

17) PS3 will re-overtake the 360 in Europe. Already happened. SUCCESS!

18) PS3 will be $300 by the end of the year Probably. SUCCESS!

19) Little Big Planet will be released on PSP SUCCESS

20) Killzone 2 will sell around a million WW opening week. FAILED.

21) PS3 sales in Japan will be well over 100k in FFXIII's release week, above the Wii. Likely.

22) Gran Turismo 5 will have a bigger opening week than Wii Sports Resort. Duh. GT5 not 2009, though. n/a

23) Wii Sports Resort will not sell anywhere near what its prequel has sold, due to it not being bundled with all Wiis in NA and EU. Duh. I might as well just say SUCCESS!

24) God of War III will sell around 1 million WW first week. Not 2009, n/a

25) God of War III will be tracking above Killzone 2 by year end. No, it'll be at 0. n/a

26) God of War III will outsell both of its predecessors (judging by shifty VGC data for the second game, according to IGN GoW2 has actually outsold GoW) Not a 2009 prediction... n/a

27) Gran Turismo 5 will sell at least 2 million first week WW. I've said this. edited 27/7. Not 2009, n/a

28) Gran Turismo 5 will be the best selling PS3 exclusive of 2009, followed by Killzone 2 (due to its February release date), followed by God of War III Last one isn't happening. GT5 and GoWIII are not releasing. n/a

29) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves will sell around 700k opening week WW. Looking very likely.

30) Heavy Rain, Killzone 2, inFamous, God of War III, Gran Turismo 5, Uncharted 2, Ratchet and Clank Future 2 and Trico will all score 9+ from IGN. inFamous has, Killzone 2 has, Uncharted 2 has, R&C Future probably will. Many of those aren't 2009. So it could be a success if R&CF gets 9+

31) Ratchet and Clank Future 2 will make it out in 2009... Looking extremely likely. But, it's not out yet.

32) IGN will give more 9+ games to the PS3 than the X360 or Wii. So far, yes.

33) Gran Turismo 5 will be the best selling HD game of 2009. Maybe. I meant single SKU btw. Not 2009. n/a

34) inFamous will sell around 500,000 first week. LOLZ FAILED.

35) inFamous will be above 90 on Metacritic. FAILED.

36) Halo 3 ODST will do over 2 million first week SUCCESS!

37) The Wii will be the best selling home console for 2009 (I need a correct one ) Looking extremely likely.

38) God of War III will not make 2009 SUCCESS!

39) Uncharted 2 will be released in December 2009 FAILED confirmed for mid-October.

40) Uncharted 2 will be a million seller by the end of 2009. Probably.

41) With a price cut, the PS3 will beat the 360 in holiday sales for 2009. Very likely.

42) Without a PS3 price cut, the 360 will beat the PS3 in holiday sales for 2009. n/a

43) CrazzyMan will be permabanned by the end of the year. Unfortunately, yes. SUCCESS!

44) I will be a VGC obsessive (5001 posts) by the end of July. SUCCESS

45) VGC 2.0 will be launched in June or July (I wish lol) May, actually. FAILED.

46) We will get at least one new moderator by the end of this year SUCCESS! And it was the one I predicted, too!

47) Supermario128 will be a VGC god by the end of May. Earlier. SUCCESS!

48) This thread will reach five pages by the end of 2009. On track.

49) The PSP will receive more 90+ (metacritic) titles this year than last year (lol, it needs 2 or more!) Not yet. Looking increasingly unlikely.

50) Versus XIII will not be announced for 360 before 1st January 2010. Not yet. On track.

That's:

Successes so far: 12

Fails so far: 9.

N/A's so far: 12. Mostly to do with GT5.

Still Pending: 17.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

Around the Network
puffy on 03 October 2009
Kantor said:
puffy said:

Hardware Sales

Wii - 70 Million

XBOX 360 - 39 Million

PS3 - 31 Million


1. Wii Sports Resort will sell 10 Million copies worldwide by year end I don't think so.

2. Wii Fit will hit 26 Million copies sold by year end Could do

3. Mario Kart Wii will hit 17 Million copies sold by year end Should do

4. Punch-Out!! will sell 2.5 Million copies by year end Might

5. Wii Fit Plus will sell 2.5 Million copies by year end (if released) Probably doesn't exist.
 
6. Super Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Brothers Brawl will hit 9 Million copies sold by year end Probably. SSBB could but Mario Galaxy is unlikely
 
7. Red Steel 2 and Rabbids Go Home will both get high review scores 88 - 93 aggregate Not that high, I don't think. Not sure yet

8. EA Sports ACTIVE will sell 4 Million copies by years end Hell no, it'll be lucky to get 2 million. Already hit 2 Million Kantor so you were wrong there but 4 million is probably out of reach.

9. Grand Slam Tennis and Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 will have total sales of over 4 Million by years end Combined? I still think not. Way off

10. Ghostbusters will sell better on Wii than either the PS3 or 360 No way. Third party, hardcore, new IP without a Nintendo mascot Sold most on PlayStation thanks to Sony publishing

11. Halo 3: ODST will sell 4 Million by years end I think so too

12. Modern Warfare 2 will sell 15 Million LTD across PS3, 360, Wii, DS, PSP if released on all platforms It'll sell that on PS3, 360 and Wii alone. If it releases on Wii. I predict 8.5 million for 360, 5.5 million for PS3, and 1.5 million for Wii. Yet to be determined, not releasing on Wii this year.

13. Heavy Rain will break 1 Million LTD being a success but many will label it as a flop I certainly hope so. releasing in 2010

14. Uncharted 2 will launch with sales of 650,000 first week and go on to sell 3 Million LTD Agreed. May sell even more with much hype surrounding the title - looking likely to hit 650k first week 

15. De Blob 2 will be announced alongside an announcement of 900,000 copies sold of the original Well, No More Heroes sold well enough to warrant a sequel, I don't see why not. Hasn't happened

16. GTA: Chinatown Wars will hit 2.5 Million sold by year end No way in hell. With a 150k first week? No but will hit 2.5 Million with the PSP release

17. The Conduit will sell 100,000 at its opening and be called a flop early however it will go on to sell 1.5 Million by years end I say it'll do more than that first week, maybe 300k, but 1.5 million by year's end sounds right. Not as good as expected, bombed.

18. Sin & Punishment 2 will sell 500k LTD Never heard of that game, but sure. 

19. Sony announce the PSP2 at E3 alongside GT5 Mobile and a GT5 launch date Last two are probable, I don't think they'd announce a PSP2 just yet. Maybe a PSP-4000. GT Mobile was announced so 1/3

That's what I think.

Now lets take a look at where you agreed with me and disagreed with me and see what has happened and what is likely/unlikely now.
Green = Success
Blue = Likely to happen by years end
Yellow = partial success/ 50-50 chance of happening by years end
Orange = Unlikely to happen by years end
Red = Failure

 



 

Kantor on 04 October 2009
puffy said:
Kantor said:
puffy said:

Hardware Sales

Wii - 70 Million

XBOX 360 - 39 Million

PS3 - 31 Million


1. Wii Sports Resort will sell 10 Million copies worldwide by year end I don't think so.

2. Wii Fit will hit 26 Million copies sold by year end Could do

3. Mario Kart Wii will hit 17 Million copies sold by year end Should do

4. Punch-Out!! will sell 2.5 Million copies by year end Might

5. Wii Fit Plus will sell 2.5 Million copies by year end (if released) Probably doesn't exist.
 
6. Super Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Brothers Brawl will hit 9 Million copies sold by year end Probably. SSBB could but Mario Galaxy is unlikely
 
7. Red Steel 2 and Rabbids Go Home will both get high review scores 88 - 93 aggregate Not that high, I don't think. Not sure yet

8. EA Sports ACTIVE will sell 4 Million copies by years end Hell no, it'll be lucky to get 2 million. Already hit 2 Million Kantor so you were wrong there but 4 million is probably out of reach.

9. Grand Slam Tennis and Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 will have total sales of over 4 Million by years end Combined? I still think not. Way off

10. Ghostbusters will sell better on Wii than either the PS3 or 360 No way. Third party, hardcore, new IP without a Nintendo mascot Sold most on PlayStation thanks to Sony publishing

11. Halo 3: ODST will sell 4 Million by years end I think so too

12. Modern Warfare 2 will sell 15 Million LTD across PS3, 360, Wii, DS, PSP if released on all platforms It'll sell that on PS3, 360 and Wii alone. If it releases on Wii. I predict 8.5 million for 360, 5.5 million for PS3, and 1.5 million for Wii. Yet to be determined, not releasing on Wii this year.

13. Heavy Rain will break 1 Million LTD being a success but many will label it as a flop I certainly hope so. releasing in 2010

14. Uncharted 2 will launch with sales of 650,000 first week and go on to sell 3 Million LTD Agreed. May sell even more with much hype surrounding the title - looking likely to hit 650k first week 

15. De Blob 2 will be announced alongside an announcement of 900,000 copies sold of the original Well, No More Heroes sold well enough to warrant a sequel, I don't see why not. Hasn't happened

16. GTA: Chinatown Wars will hit 2.5 Million sold by year end No way in hell. With a 150k first week? No but will hit 2.5 Million with the PSP release

17. The Conduit will sell 100,000 at its opening and be called a flop early however it will go on to sell 1.5 Million by years end I say it'll do more than that first week, maybe 300k, but 1.5 million by year's end sounds right. Not as good as expected, bombed.

18. Sin & Punishment 2 will sell 500k LTD Never heard of that game, but sure. 

19. Sony announce the PSP2 at E3 alongside GT5 Mobile and a GT5 launch date Last two are probable, I don't think they'd announce a PSP2 just yet. Maybe a PSP-4000. GT Mobile was announced so 1/3

That's what I think.

Now lets take a look at where you agreed with me and disagreed with me and see what has happened and what is likely/unlikely now.
Green = Success
Blue = Likely to happen by years end
Yellow = partial success/ 50-50 chance of happening by years end
Orange = Unlikely to happen by years end
Red = Failure

 

So 8 failures to 1 success. Lol



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

CatFangs806 on 04 October 2009

Wow. That's a lot of predictions. I think I'll make one of these thread predictions for 2010 and see how well I do.



gustave154 on 14 October 2009

Your predictions are very amusing yet true hahas



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The Official PS Vita Thread! Get all your latest PS Vita news here! Come join us!

 


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Kantor on 14 October 2009

Come on! Only two of you have updated!



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

Kantor on 18 November 2009

18th November 2009 Update:

1) PS3- 34 million It won't happen, but I'll see how close I was.

2) X360- 39 million Seems about right.

3) Wii- 77 million Little high? Won't get close. Yup, WAY too high. Might as well just say FAILED.

4) PS3 will outsell the Wii on GT5 launch week Which will hopefully be in 2009. Not 2009. n/a.

5) God of War III will make it out in 2009 FAILED

6) PS3 will get a price cut in Q1 or Q2 FAILED

7) Final Fantasy XIII, if it makes it out in 2009, will sell better on PS3 than X360. Not coming in 2009. Except in Japan, where it will sell 0 copies on 360. Loophole, SUCCESS!

8) BioShock 2 will sell better on X360 (no brainer) Not 2009. n/a

9) Killzone 2 will have sold well over 3 million units by the end of the year Highly unlikely. 

10) Heavy Rain will not sell very well, 1.5 million by year end if it's lucky. Not coming this year. n/a. Also, WAY too high!

11) MGS4 will not come to the Xbox 360, and will not be announced for the Xbox 360 Pretty much confirmed. SUCCESS!

12) Trico will be named and scheduled for release sometime in 2009 Nah, it's 2010. FAILED.

13) Mass Effect 2 will be on (announced for) PS3 Highly unlikely. But not failed yet.

14) An MGS4 "Substance" game will be released, exclusively for the PS3 Not yet, and probably not happening.

15) Gran Turismo 5 will sell over 3 million WW on its opening week. Not 2009, probably too high. n/a

16) PS3 will beat 360 WW in sales for 2009. Extremely likely.

17) PS3 will re-overtake the 360 in Europe. Already happened. SUCCESS!

18) PS3 will be $300 by the end of the year Probably. SUCCESS!

19) Little Big Planet will be released on PSP SUCCESS

20) Killzone 2 will sell around a million WW opening week. FAILED.

21) PS3 sales in Japan will be well over 100k in FFXIII's release week, above the Wii. Likely.

22) Gran Turismo 5 will have a bigger opening week than Wii Sports Resort. Duh. GT5 not 2009, though. n/a

23) Wii Sports Resort will not sell anywhere near what its prequel has sold, due to it not being bundled with all Wiis in NA and EU. Duh. I might as well just say SUCCESS!

24) God of War III will sell around 1 million WW first week. Not 2009, n/a

25) God of War III will be tracking above Killzone 2 by year end. No, it'll be at 0. n/a

26) God of War III will outsell both of its predecessors (judging by shifty VGC data for the second game, according to IGN GoW2 has actually outsold GoW) Not a 2009 prediction... n/a

27) Gran Turismo 5 will sell at least 2 million first week WW. I've said this. edited 27/7. Not 2009, n/a

28) Gran Turismo 5 will be the best selling PS3 exclusive of 2009, followed by Killzone 2 (due to its February release date), followed by God of War III Last one isn't happening. GT5 and GoWIII are not releasing. n/a

29) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves will sell around 700k opening week WW. Looking very likely. 820k. Close enough. SUCCESS.

30) Heavy Rain, Killzone 2, inFamous, God of War III, Gran Turismo 5, Uncharted 2, Ratchet and Clank Future 2 and Trico will all score 9+ from IGN. All games which released were 9+. SUCCESS!

31) Ratchet and Clank Future 2 will make it out in 2009... SUCCESS!

32) IGN will give more 9+ games to the PS3 than the X360 or Wii. So far, yes.

33) Gran Turismo 5 will be the best selling HD game of 2009. Maybe. I meant single SKU btw. Not 2009. n/a

34) inFamous will sell around 500,000 first week. LOLZ FAILED.

35) inFamous will be above 90 on Metacritic. FAILED.

36) Halo 3 ODST will do over 2 million first week SUCCESS!

37) The Wii will be the best selling home console for 2009 (I need a correct one ) Looking extremely likely.

38) God of War III will not make 2009 SUCCESS!

39) Uncharted 2 will be released in December 2009 FAILED confirmed for mid-October.

40) Uncharted 2 will be a million seller by the end of 2009. Did it in two weeks! SUCCESS!

41) With a price cut, the PS3 will beat the 360 in holiday sales for 2009. Extremely likely.

42) Without a PS3 price cut, the 360 will beat the PS3 in holiday sales for 2009. n/a

43) CrazzyMan will be permabanned by the end of the year. Unfortunately, yes. SUCCESS!

44) I will be a VGC obsessive (5001 posts) by the end of July. SUCCESS

45) VGC 2.0 will be launched in June or July (I wish lol) May, actually. FAILED.

46) We will get at least one new moderator by the end of this year SUCCESS! And it was the one I predicted, too!

47) Supermario128 will be a VGC god by the end of May. Earlier. SUCCESS!

48) This thread will reach five pages by the end of 2009. On track.

49) The PSP will receive more 90+ (metacritic) titles this year than last year (lol, it needs 2 or more!) Currently just one. Is there anything left that can still make 90+? Unlikely.

50) Versus XIII will not be announced for 360 before 1st January 2010. Not yet. On track.

That's:

Successes so far: 16

Fails so far: 9.

N/A's so far: 12. Mostly to do with GT5.

Still Pending: 13.

 

And you people said I sucked at predicting! HA! 16/25 correct. 64% isn't bad, right?



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

darthdevidem01 on 18 November 2009

hey guys here's my predictions:

1. PS3 Slim will be announced

2. PS3 Will sell over 600K when slim launches

3. PS3 will outsell 360 by over 1.5 million in 2009

4. Uncharted 2 will be the highest rated game of the year

5. FF13 will release in Japan, sometime in Nov - Dec

6. PS3 may win Japan this year



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Kantor on 19 November 2009
darthdevidem01 said:
hey guys here's my predictions:

1. PS3 Slim will be announced

2. PS3 Will sell over 600K when slim launches

3. PS3 will outsell 360 by over 1.5 million in 2009

4. Uncharted 2 will be the highest rated game of the year

5. FF13 will release in Japan, sometime in Nov - Dec

6. PS3 may win Japan this year

Were these predictions you made before? Not bad.

1) Good

2) Fail

3) Pending

4) Pending, but probably Good.

5) Good

6) Pending

If you made them now, you're a cheater, and also an idiot (#2 )



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

TheThunder on 19 November 2009



So, you bumped your epic fail.

KZ2 3mil in 2009

BTW there is no way the 360 is hitting 39 mil in 2009 you might as well call it a FAIL.

Another thing do you have a link of the GOW2>GOW1 in sales ?