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TheThunder on 09 March 2009

KZ2 will not reach 3 mil by the end of 2009

shame really the MP is awesome



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Kantor on 09 March 2009

^I think it could. It'll crack a million by three weeks at the most, and being a shooter, will keep selling.



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Kantor on 19 April 2009

Keep predicting, guys, and make note of where you've gone wrong.



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Slimebeast on 19 April 2009
Kantor said:

 

10) Heavy Rain will not sell very well, 1.5 million by year end if it's lucky.


1.5 million in 2009 is "not sell very well"? You're insane. That would be sick sales for an adventure game.

Everyone should be very happy if it reaches even half of that by end of 2009. 

 



Kantor on 19 April 2009

Now, for some updating.

1) PS3- 34 million Currently 21.62 million, Perhaps a little high?

2) X360- 39 million Currently 29.78 million, on track

3) Wii- 77 million Currently 48.86 million, perhaps a little high? I blame adjustments

4) PS3 will outsell the Wii on GT5 launch week Probably not 09

5) God of War III will make it out in 2009 looking unlikely.

6) PS3 will get a price cut in Q1 or Q2 Not so far.

7) Final Fantasy XIII, if it makes it out in 2009, will sell better on PS3 than X360. Duh

8) BioShock 2 will sell better on X360 (no brainer) Duh

9) Killzone 2 will have sold well over 3 million units by the end of the year On track, maybe.

10) Heavy Rain will not sell very well, 1.5 million by year end if it's lucky. Probably a lot less.

11) MGS4 will not come to the Xbox 360, and will not be announced for the Xbox 360 So far, so good

12) Trico will be named and scheduled for release sometime in 2009 Looking unlikely

13) Mass Effect 2 will be on PS3 Very unlikely

14) An MGS4 "Substance" game will be released, exclusively for the PS3 Could be.

15) Gran Turismo 5 will sell over 3 million WW on its opening week. Not 2009

16) PS3 will beat 360 WW in sales for 2009. Not so far, but I was only expecting that after the pricecut.

17) PS3 will re-overtake the 360 in Europe. See above.

18) PS3 will be $300 by the end of the year

19) Little Big Planet will be released on PSP It's been announced, but maybe not 2009.

20) Killzone 2 will sell around a million WW opening week. Too high

21) PS3 sales in Japan will be well over 100k in FFXIII's release week, above the Wii. Will happen, but not yet

22) Gran Turismo 5 will have a bigger opening week than Wii Sports Resort. Duh.

23) Wii Sports Resort will not sell anywhere near what its prequel has sold, due to it not being bundled with all Wiis in NA and EU. Duh, but not yet

24) God of War III will sell around 1 million WW first week. Not 2009, but still very much possible.

25) God of War III will be tracking above Killzone 2 by year end. Lol no, it'll be at zero. Failed

26) God of War III will outsell both of its predecessors (judging by shifty VGC data for the second game, according to IGN GoW2 has actually outsold GoW) Should do.

27) Gran Turismo 5 will sell at least 3 million first week WW. Didn't I already say this?

28) Gran Turismo 5 will be the best selling PS3 exclusive of 2009, followed by Killzone 2 (due to its February release date), followed by God of War III If it is 2009, it will be.

29) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves will sell around 800k opening week WW. I still think it will, depending on release date. Maybe a little high, around 700k.

30) Heavy Rain, Killzone 2 , inFamous, God of War III, Gran Turismo 5, Uncharted 2, Ratchet and Clank Future 2 and Trico will all score 9+ from IGN. Killzone 2 has, nothing else reviewed yet. inFamous is getting positive previews.

31) Ratchet and Clank Future 2 will make it out in 2009... Announced for 2009, 99% sure of this

32) IGN will give more 9+ games to the PS3 than the X360 or Wii. 6 on PS3, 5 on X360, 5 on Wii. Winning

33) Gran Turismo 5 will be the best selling HD game of 2009. If it releases. Might be ODST.

Damn, I suck at predicting



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

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Kantor on 19 April 2009
Slimebeast said:
Kantor said:

 

10) Heavy Rain will not sell very well, 1.5 million by year end if it's lucky.


1.5 million in 2009 is "not sell very well"? You're insane. That would be sick sales for an adventure game.

Everyone should be very happy if it reaches even half of that by end of 2009. 

 

1.5 million would be fantastic sales. I'm saying it will probably sell a LOT less than that. 1.5 million is with megaton advertising and excellent reviews.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

Kantor on 19 April 2009
indodude said:
1) $100 Price cut for PS3 Q3 possibly Q4 Maybe

2) Killzone 2 will sell between 600k-1M WW Week 1 Correct! Congrats

3) Final Fantasy XIII/VERSUS won't hit NA/EU in 2010. I'm assuming you meant 2009, in which case correct!

2 out of 3. Damn.



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Slimebeast on 19 April 2009

Kantor, I like this thread and that you made so many predictions. Pretty interesting ones too, even if it's mostly just about one console.

Very bold though lol.

Like predicting that Trico and all these other games would make it out in 2009. So optimistic and fanboyish of you lol.



Kantor on 19 April 2009

I know. I am an optimistic fanboy

Now, to pick on some more people. It's fun! Who seemed the most confident...



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

Kantor on 19 April 2009
thx1139 said:

2008 Sales Results

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 12th Jan 2008 to 20th Dec 2008:


Console Wii PS3 X360
Total
24,149,116
9,665,970
10,401,425

Add

~2.5 million more for the Wii
~900,0000 more for the PS3
~1.5 million more for the 360

Aproximate totals
Wii 26.6 million
360 12 million
PS3 10.5 million

2009 Sales Predictions

Wii 29 million.
360 14 million
PS3 9 million

Other Predictions

1. Killzone 2 will not cause a PS3 sales surge. Blip will be smaller than MGS4. Correct

2. GT5 will stun the world with its 100% tie ratio to new PS3 console sales. Everyone purchasing GT5 will also purchase a PS3. Um-

3. Forget #2. GT5 wont even release in 2009 and even if it does late in the year the additional PS3 sales because of GT5 wont be very measurable. With a console base of nearly 30 million at release 10% of existing console owners will push 3 million GT5 sales. First week? Nice. And 2009 isn't looking likely.

4. Sony wont cut price until September at the earliest. Well, it's April, and there are no plans. Probably right.
5. Sony will adjust to larger HDD sizes around end of summer to maintain cost effectiveness. Too soon to tell
6. Wii will start coming with a pooper scooper to handle all of the shovelware. I hear they're considering it
7. Wii top selling software will continue to be the same old same old. (Wii Play, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart) Right, so far.
8. Wii will continue to sell like crazy and the software released will still cause yawns. Yup.
9. 360 will continue momentum into 2009 and with no PS3 price cut to slow will be ahead of 2008 pace all year long. So far.
10. 360 will have new software annoucements from Bungie, Rare, and Lionhead. Nothing from Bungie.
11. 360 will finally have motion controller and games announced. Yes O.O
12. 360 will adjust to larger HDD sizes around end of summer to maintain cost effectiveness. Could do
13. 360 prices will remain the same unless Sony cuts PS3 price, but MS may add WiFi adapter or motion controller to package. Nothing yet.

Pretty good. Better than my predictions

Well, now to add more!



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective