360 40 millions
PS3 32 millions
Wii 76 millions
misterd said:
I'm holding off final sales predictions until the final 2008 numbers are in, but... We know Wii is currently selling everything it ships. Its up to about 2.5mil per month, right? So 2.5 x12 = 26 million. Figure they'll up production again in the spring, but that'll take some time. Maybe it adds another 4 mil, which would be 30mil on top of current sales, or around 75. The sad thing is this is mostly in Nintendo's hands - they could up production to 4mil per month if they wanted to, so predictions are less about sales trends than understanding Nintendo itself. PS3 sold about 7 mil in 2007, then 10 mil in 2008, but the sales are slowing due to the economy. I expect even with a price cut that 10m is about as well as Sony can expect in 2009 - the only exclusive system seller I see from them is GT5 - I don't expect FF13 or GoW3 to make it out until 2010, and Killzone 2 isn't a console seller. The 360 you are seriously shortchanging. You've got it selling just 7 million next year. The 360 has been selling an average of 8m its first 2 years, and their numbers have picked up with the price cut - it looks like they'll hit over 10m this year. The system sells in the US and is picking up Europe. If Halo 3 and Halo wars make it out, they could duplicate even though I don't anticipate another price cut. So that would put them... 37 million? Therefore... End of 2009: Wii: sells 30m to finish at 75m. PS3: sells 10m to finish just under 30m. 360 sells just under 10 to finish around 36m. That is 141m consoles sold, Wii @ 53%, PS3 @ 21% and 360 26%. |
2.5 x 12 = 30, not 26 :x
plus 4 would be 34. That would make your prediction 79m for Wii instead of 75.
MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.
360:
360 hardware redesign by Fall. (360 Slim)
$150 Arcade by Holiday 09.
"XBox Sports" title is launched with 10 games for you avatars, possibly with motion controller. (Including:Tennis, Golf, Pool, Kart Racing)
Microsoft buys at least one Japanese development studio.
E3 will be very heavily casual focused. Expect a Home/Animal Crossing like game for Live.
Halo Wars = 1.5M, Halo 3:Recon = 6 Million by end of year
No MGS4 for 360 in 09. People still predicting 360 MGS4 port for 2010.
Mass Effect 2 is still a 360 console exclusive.
Wii:
Wii reaches 50% console share in Feb.
Wii Price drop to $200 US coming in Fall.
Updated model with more internal storage space. (2GB)
WiiFit passes 25 million by years end
Wii Sports Resort 15 million by years end.
New Zelda game for Christmas supporting Wii motion Plus
Surprise Wii titles include: Nintendogs, a GTA spin-off, Wii Fit 2, Zack & Wiki 2, and a Professor Layton game for the Wii
Non-nintendo published 90+ metacritic rated retail games in 09: Zero.
Nintendo goes through a whole year without announcing a new Wii peripheral!
Conduit = 250K first week. 2M by end of the year
Wii Music = 6M by end of 09
PS3:
There will be a price drop before summer.
$299/$399 PS3 for Holiday 09.
Netflix or Blockbuster video steaming. (And integrated into Home)
LBP will be heavily bundled. 5M+ sales by end of 09.
A new game featuring Sackboy is announced at E3.
GT5 will be released in 09. FFXIII will not.
Killzone 2 = 1M+ first week. 4M by end of year.
GoW3 = 1M+ first week.
PS3 moves to second place in Others.
Star Ocean 4 for PS3.
new Twisted Metal comes out in 09.
MAG not coming in 2009. (and gets a name change to something non-stupid)
Other
KH3 announced for PS3/360 (In a E3 bombshell, it is a 360 timed exclusive in NA/Others)
Fable II for PC in Spring. Gear 2 PC by year's end.
MS tries to compete with Steam. Expect many XBLA game to appear exclusively on Live for Windows.
Steam for Linux/Mac announced
I think I need some nice PS3 software predictions.
24) God of War III will sell around 1 million WW first week.
25) God of War III will be tracking above Killzone 2 by year end.
26) God of War III will outsell both of its predecessors (judging by shifty VGC data for the second game, according to IGN GoW2 has actually outsold GoW)
27) Gran Turismo 5 will sell at least 3 million first week WW.
28) Gran Turismo 5 will be the best selling PS3 exclusive of 2009, followed by Killzone 2 (due to its February release date), followed by God of War III
29) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves will sell around 800k opening week WW.
30) Heavy Rain, Killzone 2, inFamous, God of War III, Gran Turismo 5, Uncharted 2, Ratchet and Clank Future 2 and Trico will all score 9+ from IGN.
31) Ratchet and Clank Future 2 will make it out in 2009...
32) IGN will give more 9+ games to the PS3 than the X360 or Wii.
I'll edit them into the OP, again.
15 (if that is where I ended last time...).
Best selling Wii games in 09 (announced).
1. Wii Fit = 12.5M (27M in total)
2. Mario Kart Wii = 10M (24M in total)
2. Wii Sports Resort = 10M (10M in total)
Animal Crossing = 4.1M (6M in total)
Wii Music = 3M (5M in total)
M&S Wii = 2M (8.5M in total)
Will do the others later.
http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261
That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS
Wii to sell 32 million+ in 2009 and be closing in on 80 million consoles sold by the end of 2009.
2008 Sales Results
Console | Wii | PS3 | X360 |
Total
|
24,149,116
|
9,665,970
|
10,401,425
|
Add
~2.5 million more for the Wii
~900,0000 more for the PS3
~1.5 million more for the 360
Aproximate totals
Wii 26.6 million
360 12 million
PS3 10.5 million
2009 Sales Predictions
Wii 29 million.
360 14 million
PS3 9 million
Other Predictions
1. Killzone 2 will not cause a PS3 sales surge. Blip will be smaller than MGS4.
2. GT5 will stun the world with its 100% tie ratio to new PS3 console sales. Everyone purchasing GT5 will also purchase a PS3.
3. Forget #2. GT5 wont even release in 2009 and even if it does late in the year the additional PS3 sales because of GT5 wont be very measurable. With a console base of nearly 30 million at release 10% of existing console owners will push 3 million GT5 sales.
4. Sony wont cut price until September at the earliest.
5. Sony will adjust to larger HDD sizes around end of summer to maintain cost effectiveness.
6. Wii will start coming with a pooper scooper to handle all of the shovelware.
7. Wii top selling software will continue to be the same old same old. (Wii Play, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart)
8. Wii will continue to sell like crazy and the software released will still cause yawns.
9. 360 will continue momentum into 2009 and with no PS3 price cut to slow will be ahead of 2008 pace all year long.
10. 360 will have new software annoucements from Bungie, Rare, and Lionhead.
11. 360 will finally have motion controller and games announced.
12. 360 will adjust to larger HDD sizes around end of summer to maintain cost effectiveness.
13. 360 prices will remain the same unless Sony cuts PS3 price, but MS may add WiFi adapter or motion controller to package.
Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.
PS3 drops price and starts selling
KZ2 goes crazy with sales
360 xboxs across the world come across a new problem- no longer RROD - Exploding systems ES - which many small children lose fingers over
The Wii, nintendo, becomes the master ruler of earth by buying out every nations' economies problems
Kantor said:
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If we went by that logic, killzone 2 would be god awful because the first game was.
N64 is the ONLY console of the fifth generation!!!