misterd said:
I'm holding off final sales predictions until the final 2008 numbers are in, but... We know Wii is currently selling everything it ships. Its up to about 2.5mil per month, right? So 2.5 x12 = 26 million. Figure they'll up production again in the spring, but that'll take some time. Maybe it adds another 4 mil, which would be 30mil on top of current sales, or around 75. The sad thing is this is mostly in Nintendo's hands - they could up production to 4mil per month if they wanted to, so predictions are less about sales trends than understanding Nintendo itself. PS3 sold about 7 mil in 2007, then 10 mil in 2008, but the sales are slowing due to the economy. I expect even with a price cut that 10m is about as well as Sony can expect in 2009 - the only exclusive system seller I see from them is GT5 - I don't expect FF13 or GoW3 to make it out until 2010, and Killzone 2 isn't a console seller. The 360 you are seriously shortchanging. You've got it selling just 7 million next year. The 360 has been selling an average of 8m its first 2 years, and their numbers have picked up with the price cut - it looks like they'll hit over 10m this year. The system sells in the US and is picking up Europe. If Halo 3 and Halo wars make it out, they could duplicate even though I don't anticipate another price cut. So that would put them... 37 million? Therefore... End of 2009: Wii: sells 30m to finish at 75m. PS3: sells 10m to finish just under 30m. 360 sells just under 10 to finish around 36m. That is 141m consoles sold, Wii @ 53%, PS3 @ 21% and 360 26%. |
2.5 x 12 = 30, not 26 :x
plus 4 would be 34. That would make your prediction 79m for Wii instead of 75.
MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.
