yeah definatley and like others have said it will probably be extremley front loaded

Well, the OP only asked if the game could break a million first week, so I just pointed out why the answer is obvious

It's really hard to predict how it'll sell, when we don't know what the release date is. Will it be out before or after GT5? Will they cut the price of the PS3 then? Sorta need to know the momentum of the console, and how big the userbase is at release.

Depending on when that is, first week will be anywhere from 1.3m to 1.65m. I see it selling somewhere from 2.2-2.6m lifetime.

For a franchise as big as that, FFXIII should sell a million in one week without any problems.

After all, it is a Final Fantasy game.

Honest question: Does anyone think 1 million first week will be a success? Cause I don't understand why this should be the treshold. I'm pretty sure Square doesn't see 1 million first week as a success.

I think everything under 1.5 million week 1 is a dissapointment.

It will.

It should if not then that would be a problem for SE and they would question themselves why they are keepin FF as a exclusive in Japan.

DQ is the biggest seller in Japan, though the Mario games invariably sell more due to their long legs. And after DQ comes FF. This is going to be a huge game for the Japanese. I can see it getting over a million when it comes out in Japan alone, but I think it will take more than a week. Itll be close but seven days wont be enough. Thats just my feeling at the moment.

In terms of development costs this game must have cost s huge amount to make, it and Versus have already been in development for years. I would think the cost would be in the league of games like GT5 but the advantage for GT5 is that much of the development costs have been recouped thanks to the prologue. SE do not have this luxury, if this and Versus are super duper expensive games I would think 3-4 million sales would be needed to break even. FFXIII will do that easily, I have enough faith in Versus to think it will also do that easily, looks pretty darn amazing for what is esentailly not a flagship game.

GT5 however has probably had 30-40% of developent costs covered thanks to  the prologue, chances are by the time the full game releases every sales will be profit for Sony. However what I do think is that SE are waiting for the install base for PS3 to increase before they release the game, same with Sony and there firsty party title GT5.

All in all 1 million first week in Japan looks a certainty. A good ol' price drop and the inevitable games (RE5, Yakuza 3) releasing before FFXIII releases and 1.5 million looks easy. Remember FF games sell best in Japan even though Japan always has lower install bases compared to EU and NA. Once again GT5, if that game releases before FFXIII SE will probably make love to Sony as it will sell a lot of hardware.

easily

and versus its not a spin off.

it's practically FF14 but instead of 14 they added Versus title to it.

its developed design and directed by tetsuya nomura, kingdom hearts team, and yokoshimura

thats AAA all over.

I know Toriyama said Versus could not have been called FFXIV due to the game being too different from other FF games, it's going to be very mature and such, Flagship FF games do not have blood and is for all ages, Versus is not going to be.