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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official VGC Thread of Year End 2009 Predictions

good luck filling in that table. i want to see what people predicted last year for this year end compared to what it actually ended up with.




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Killergran said:
madskillz said:
Killergran said:

Made on the 20th of december 2008:
Wii - 75 million (+29m)
360 - 38.5 million (+11m)
PS3 - 30.5 million (+11m)

NDS - 127 million (+29.5m)
PSP - 55 Million (+12m)

Maybe you have a horrible browser, but each time you post something, there's a date stamp under your name - and it gives some other useful info too.

 

Huhm?

 

You added - Made on the 20th, but your post automatically does it. Look at your post - it's timestamped already. That's all I was saying.

 



DS - 134 million (+38 mil)
Wii - 79 million (+33 mil)
PSP - 54 million (+11 mil)
360 - 42.5 million (+15 mil)
PS3 - 31.5 million (+ 12 mil)

Edit - I'll give some reasoning behing these. I've gone and looked at the increase in annual sales for each console but they are a bit all over the place. Nevertheless they are all increasing year on year so far and I expect that to continue next year with no new consoles on the horizon. A PSP2 could throw a spanner in the works, but I don't expect one.

DS - Not only is the DS Lite selling unbelievably well, but the DSi has revived sales in Japan, so I expect it to boost sales worldwide when it gets a release. It's possible that they will hold off on the DSi while the DSLite is selling so well, but as the DSi is not a direct replacement, then I expect to see it by mid 09.

Wii - This figure is based off the 2.8million per month figure that we know Nintendo are producing. This number could end up being much higher, but we also know that they have boosted production to an unknown level for the Xmas period, so we know they can do it. Assuming demand stays the same and we see no sign of it slowing down then 80+mil could be easily reached.

PSP - Seems fairly stable, unless it starts it's decline then another 10-11 mil should be possible.

360 - I think the mass market price point has hit a nerve, the 3 year warranty is giving piece of mind, plus a 360 slim mid year will keep the demand up for the 360. The 360 will sell 12+ million consoles in 2008 and I have budgeted on only a 20% increase for 2009 even though the price cut has given a 50% increase so far from earlier in the year. A slim will only maintain that momentum. I don't think 15 mil is unreasonable.

PS3 - Probably the hardest of the bunch to pick. I'm banking on a price cut, but I think it will only be $50 and not until end of Q3. I've estimated an increase of around 15% on 2008. Even with a cut of $100 I think it will be tough to gain much more traction until GT5 & FF13 are released but they won't be until the end of the year and FF13 will be 2010 outside of Japan plus multi-platform.



Never argue with idiots
They bring you down to their level and then beat you with experience

mrstickball said:
I'll update it with that shortly...goddog.

 

awesomeness



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Wii : 75 million
X360 : 39 million
Ps3 : 35 million
NDS : 128 million
PSP : 55 million



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I'm copying my predictions from skeezer's thread, and altering them a bit

Wii - 74 mil
PS3 - 32.5 mil
X360 - 38 mil
DS - 122 mil
PSP - 55 mil




see my sig, for my slightly changed predictions



Wii 80million o-O wtf...



 

mM

People expect the wii to sell nearly its entire install base in 2009? You have to be kidding me.. oh well time for me to make my prediction



 

mM

DS: 133,200,000
Wii: 82,150,000
Xbox360: 43,100,000
PSP: 61,000,000
PS3: 34,350,000



Tempus fugit Nintendo manet.

 

Level 1 - Newbie
Level 2 - Member - Pass 1k
Level 3 - Regular - Pass 2k
Level 4 - Addicted - Pass 5k
Level 5 - Obsessed - Pass 10k
Level 6 - Old Guard - Pass 20k
Level 7 - Legend - Pass 50k
Level 8 - Demi-God - Pass 100k
Level 9 - God - Pass 250k
Level 10 - Zeus - Pass 500k

New Table:

Level 1 - Newbie
Level 2 - Rookie - Pass 1k
Level 3 - Padawan - Pass 10k
Level 4 - Sea Dog - Pass 25k
Level 5 - Captain - Pass 50k
Level 6 - Agent - Pass 100k
Level 7 - Elite - Pass 175k
Level 8 - Hero - Pass 250k
Level 9 - Legend - Pass 500k
Level 10 - Titan - Pass 1 Million