There is no way the PS3 can suddenly pull Wii numbers. The price is wrong, the games are not appealing enough to the general audience, and many have already settled with the Wii and are happy with it.

If the PS3 gets to the $250 next year, Sony will go bankrupt. The technology is still way too expensive to attempt a $250 SKU, unless they feel like stripping it down to the point that it isn't worth purchase anymore. By the time it CAN be $250 without obscene losses, the Wii will have sealed enough console owners to keep the PS3 from reaching 1mil/mo numbers.

The Wii rolled out 1m/m sales at launch. This momentum is what's keeping it going. It is virtually impossible for the PS3 to suddenly just start selling that much that fast.

Can they reach the 360? Absolutely.
Will it happen in 2008? No.

I think it will be very close when all is said and done. I generally use the snowball theory when it comes to console sales. Once the ball gets rolling it gets bigger and bigger and in the case of the PS3 vs the 360 what we have is the 360 with a demanding lead in the USA & vise versa in Japan.

Here is what I think will happen. As we all know most game devs are either in Japan or the US (not taking anything away from the others just stating where the majority are located). We also know the 360 will never win in Japan so devs over there have it pretty cut and dry, they will make games for the Wii and PS3.

In America however devs will have a dilema. I seriously doubt that the PS3 will ever overtake the 360 in the USA. I think that the 360's lead should only increase in America and I think the current deflation in PS3 sales despite the recent price drop is a good indicator of that. It looks like the PS3 sales will continue to drop while the 360 has been very consistent despite all the problems the 360 is having in terms of reliability and reputation. If the 360 does indeed become dominant in the USA we will start seeing a divide in cross-cultural games which will then further increase the 360's lead over time making up for the lost sales in Japan. American devs will probably make games for the US 360 because in general their games dont do as well in Japan anyway so they need to capitalize on their strongest market.

The end result is we will have a situation like what happened with the Saturn which actually did ok in Japan and gave them a lot of great Japanese games that unfortunately never made to the USA (I still want some of those games...). I fear that this is probably what will happen this generation only even more extreme. We will have a lot more Japanese games on the PS3 that will never make it to the US and a lot of English games on the 360 that will never make it to Japan. I actually hope this wont happen but my spider sense tells me that we are already headed that way.

 no they'll make game for the most profitable suport..... they don't care if the market is bigger in their homeland... they one to make as muchcash as possible that's it.....  but I see where you are coming from and where you're going with that.... especially with your saturn example I agree on that... I'm just saying for big licence they'll choose what's more interesting for them..... if PS3 crashes overall you could see FF14 coming to WII or XB (big unprobable hypothesis but it's to illustrate my exemple)  there is no interest on staying somewhere where they couldn't cover their cost of dev... what you are saying might be true for the WII but the WII is working world wide so I don't think you'll see the title on that platform staying in JAPAN only..... if PS3 is behind by much they'll dev for XB even if it's smaller in japan... profit is their interest... not pleasing the owners of the favorite console of their home country.... 

Oh that changes from the saturn period because.. the cost of production for a game is way higher.... so a small local domination is not enough anymore to keep it local..... but it depends a lot on the results and difference.... between the consoles...

 I think the 360 will have slightly more units sold in the US than the PS3 in the end. It will be a close race, if the PS3 ever (ever) bypass the 360 in the US it not before 2010, more likley 2012. 

I just think, a lot of people understemating the PS3 in Europe. The time it hit the 400 € or 300€ price point, i have not a big doubt it can get significantly   (60 k / week).  It sells around 35 k / week at the moment, with lets say, not so big games (at the moment). I will not buy a PS3 but the guys i know wanting one the price they are willing to pay is 400€/300€.  

 Another thing people seem to forget is the PS3 hadn't had a Christmas in Europe yet. Christmas is the only time a lot of people have the money for buying such expensive "extras". 

The X-Box will have its second and a half Christmas this year. If the PS3 has a price cut to 500€ before Christmas, i see the PS3 outselling the 360 more than 2:1 in others this Christmas. But thats just my opinion. 

 I agree, Europe is still a strong environment for Sony.

Wat if sales don't pick up, and stay at similar levels throughout its lifespan? Is that such an unlikely thing to happen?

This is exactly the attitude that has killed off so many companies. Our product succeeded in the past, therefore it will succeed in the future.

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Its not that the PS3 will sell 25m. Look at the DS vrs PSP - everyone keeps forgetting the analogies.

The PS3 may well 25m within 3 years - and by then the Wii will be sitting at 55m-60m.

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Here's a question for you - if the PS3 sells 50m in 5 years, is it a success? Is it still a success if the Wii has sold 120m in the same period? What if the 360 sells 60m in the same time?

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What Sony wants to happen - for the PS3 to outsell the competition by 2:1 - is simply just not going to happen. Its not that it won't be a successful console - it almost certainly will - its that it will almost certainly lose this generation, and possibly come 3rd (i.e. what this thread is about - it is fighting for 2nd spot with the 360 at the moment).

Sorry for the late answer, I went to bed after my last replay.

Actualy I most disagree here, xbox360 library is larger than PS3. Combined with one year headstart which means a larger amount of pre-own/cheaper games a casual gamer should get more game worth from their money if the buy a xbox360. Looking at the exclusive arms race xbox360 has the double of exclusive games than PS3 (96 vs 47). Then you have the multiplat.

Other than that I personally think that those that just wants to pick up the game and play it for a couple of hours and kill some people wont buy a PS3 or a xbox360 for a 350 USD+. Those persons will come when the consol is availble for 200 USD.

You don't say that history repeat its self, you're saying that this generation will be different that the others, cause no system wich have sold so poorly during its first year and was a distant 2nd or 3rd every week or month, could catch up with the one wich was the top seller during this time. If the PS3 outsell the Wii and 360 at the end, it will be the first time that a thing like this happen in history of videogames.

Well I do know that people in japan and Europe wont buy the X360 it doesnt matter the price .The Xbox was at some moment at 129 euros and the Cube at 99 both with good lineups and exclusives as Resident Evil 4 and Halo 2 with the PS2 at 199 and the PS2 still kicked the crap out of them sistematically .

I do know a lot of people that have bought the Wii for marketing and hype alone ,they laughed a lot in parties with friends with Wii Sports ...and since then the Wii is collecting dust in their homes.Still ,it can keep selling very strong to casual gamers and Nintendo fans who want to play the new Mario game.But ,people are waiting for the PS3 to drop its price.In fact many are already buying it with the Starter Pack ,and once the machine gets anywhere near 300 or 350 euros it wont sell 65K as some suggest but 120K weekly as the PS2 did .Europe was the biggest PS2 market with more than 45 million units sold ,the brand name of Sony here is nearly intact because the FUD against it is only present in very minoritary videogames webpages.General opinion here is that the PS1 and PS2 were great machines that everybody had and that have the better games and that Xbox is just a second best or third best option ,in fact many people I have heard them saying that Sony really knows to build consoles and that MS has a lot to learn during many ages if they wanna be anywhere close .

What some people here in these boards fail to understand is that the 360 isnt even a name in most peoples minds here .Most people dont know what the 360 is ,its just the "playstation " for them .Others that know the machine just dislike it for being a MS product and look at it as a games-PC with the same games.Even the ones that know the most about the industry ,the people that surf the web daily to know everything ,those are divided between those who already have the machine and defend it and those who simply despise it because the red ring of light ,the online fees etc .In Japan its even worse ,and although MS has improved their position there from selling 1500 consoles weekly to selling 2500-3000 units its still a absolutely obscure system there .

The PS3 will take off in those two markets sooner or later ,the 360 never .No matter what price it has.Thats why in the worlwide fight its doomed to fail even if it could keep its lead in the North American market .


All this is speaking too much ,though .The PS3 hasnt had a single christmas with full stock ,it had shortages in NA and japan and wasnt even present in Europe .I think that by march next year we will have a more clear vision on whats happening .