naznatips said:
It's not as simple as "let's just make everything on Wii and it will be all sunshine and daisies" either. World at War bombed on Wii. Someday it may recover sales, but it will take a long time, and shooters will never sell as well on Wii as they do on the HD consoles and PC. And here we have the problem: Western developers don't know how to make anything else anymore. If it's not a shooter it's a bloody action game. If it's not a bloody action game it's a bloody action RPG. If it's not a bloody action RPG it bombs (Poor Prince of Persia).
Publishers are screwed. The developers they employ can only make a certain style of game that happens to cost out the ass and not sell enough to make up for it. How can they scrap their whole staff and start over? What can they really do? You talk about Japanese publishers having no influence, but you're completely wrong. Japanese publishers are the ones who will still be around in a decade. What good does it do you to sell millions now if you are a dead company in 5 years? Gaming is a business, and those who know how to stay in business are the ones that will matter in the future.
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This isn't really what the problem is, Naz. Not quite.
Japanese developers in general acknowledge that the marketshare of Western-developed games has been rapidly dwarfing that of Japanese titles (assuming, of course, that one ignores Nintendo). Gamers want the unfairly characterized genre of Western games which migrated from the PC in the late 90's, and gamers want them to the exclusion of everything else. The problem is that demand for them will probably never grow past this point and it's very much a situation steeped in diminishing returns.
The Japanese problem, though, lies in the fact that they aren't prepared to be able to take back that mindshare, or at least they are not confident in their ability to do so. Nintendo's not worried about it, right now Nintendo isn't worried about anything, but for other Japanese developers they are seeing a completely unsustainable business model generate revenue far beyond anything they've ever produced, even if the profits don't match up.
When and if the Western developers bow out of the console business (and they will if they keep treating every console like a PC) it's going to create a power vacuum, yes. The question is whether the Japanese developers will be able to pick up the slack or if the whole thing will collapse in on itself and Nintendo is left as a single island to which developers will cling.