Nice idea for a poll.  Will it get an 09 price cut?  probably.  When will it have an 09 price cut?  Well I guess that all depends on what we were discussing on the last post that gave birth to this poll.  As we have debated and you have corrected me on, sony is arguably close to breakeven, but officially not there yet ($400 mark is breakeven now however I'm sure the 160gb version is possibly profitable but I have nothing to support that other than my own opinion based on loose estimations).  sony has stood their ground that they will no longer accept taking a large loss on it's product.  So their estimated breakeven period at $400 was sometime in second half fiscal 2008 (Oct 08 - Mar 09).  That being said I find it highly unlikely to see a price cut in this time period, especially if they do not in fact hit the even point.  I would expect a price cut some time after Mar 09 to be most likely.  I personally think the company would benefit by a small price cut  ($50 reduction to $349 80gb, $449 160gb) in mar-jun and a 2nd price cut before the holiday season, possibly accompanied by a bundle with Gran Turismo 5.  That would likely move a large quantity of units in Others and Japan especially and possibly noteable improvements in Americas.

It may also be beneficial for Sony to maintain 3 sku's similar to the Xbox 360 lineup.  I revitalized value edition could help move some units and would drag the console closer to pricng with the competition.  Why not run a 40gb unit with all unnecessary extras pulled off and maintain a standardized 80gb unit and leave a 160gb unit will all the bells and whistles.  Imagine a Holiday 2009 Sony line up looking like this:

40gb "core" unit bundled with a greatest hits and a psn voucher- $229 (ideally $199 but I do not think sony can afford that)

80gb "standard" unit bundled with GT5 or a strong 2009 exclusive game (GT5 bundle would be best in others) 3 month trial subscription to Qore- $279 (ideally 249-299 range, personally do not suggest anything over 279)

160gb "prime" unit bundled with GT5 or a strong 2009 exclusive game, year subscription to Qore, PSN voucher, all extras - $329 (A ton of extra features/bundled product, a good value to those who WANT it.  $329-349 is fair)

Each tier would have a higher perceived value than the other to those who can afford/want the extra features and there would be a vlue edition for new adopters.  This price scale would likely still be higher than the 360/Wii which is why I suggest the bundled items.  The only real question is: Can they afford this? They definately need to restructure their production lines/process, find cheaper alternatives/manufacturers for components, and create a solid support team for software developers to ensure a promising future to adopters of the console and their gaming library.

So that is mostly my opinion of ow they should structure their 2009 Holiday season to remain competitive.  Right now I think they are playing it steady and safe to ensure they meet/excede planned shipments and hit breakeven/ flirt with profitablity.  They have alot of work to do after december though because I believe 2009 is make or break as the next generation will birth(E3 showings) 2010 for at least 1 of the current 3.

EDIT: one of the largest factors that will determine what sony can and cannot do is the Yen. If things don't improve for the Yen, don't expect for much outside of Japan as it will only pile on the loss for Sony.

 Isn't that exactly what Sony already did by removing BC and stuff when they released the famous $400 PS3 with 40GB in 2007??

If you asked me twelve weeks ago I would have said November, but now, I'll say next November. They'll wait until they make a profit on each one sold first.

I have a question though: in JP, is there more likely to be a price cut since the Yen is stronger than the dollar/Euro?

Q4, it needs to be closer to Christmas, so it can be much more effective.

Yes, it just needs to be revitalized and trimmed more.  They could even make the value edition the first to be "slimmed" to boost sales.  I'm not exactly sure how well the 40gb faired sales wise globally originally but I thought it did pretty well based on my own experiences.  I think with as many firmware updates sony has and with dlc, installsand psn material 40gb is as low as they can go to compete with the 360 arcade.  They could give the 20gb another go, but 2 games like MGS4 and your full.

Yes it is more likely in Japan first for that reason, but I wouldnt expect a pricecut to occur on a localized basis next year(maybe staggered though.  Every unit sold outside of japan has a higher loss than in Japan so profitability on hardware will occur first(not sure when) in the japan market.  Same issue relates to Nintendo, just not near to the extent as Sony right now.

A price cut in Japan is less painful and easier to justify. Less painful because the sales volume is smaller there than in other regions even with a price cut boost. Easier to justify because the price is higher so they'll break even there first.

Oh goodie.

At least Sony might be doing better in one country in a few months.

I personally think that we'll see a slimline at the same price before we see an actual price-cut.

It has to happen in Europe first because of increasing sales of the 360 in others.

So apparently 49% of people expect a price cut in the first half of 2009, with more tendency towards the first quarter. In about 3 months we'll know if 31% of the voters were wrong :P

I was expecting more people to vote for Q2. It's also interesting that 10% of people don't expect a price cut at all.