Forums - Sales Discussion - Can the Wii Reach 50% Before Years End?

It's once again time to examine whether the Wii can reach 50% before the end of the year, especially with NPD's numbers showing an extreme amount of Wii's sold compared to PS3+360s in November (nearly 2:1).

Obviously, it's never whether the Wii can make it, it's whether Nintendo can ship enough. Here are some graphs showing November through the week for which we have data (week ending Dec 6th) for both of 2007 and 2008.

Since it's probably too wide for most to see, here's a link to the picture.

On the left is 2007 sales, and the middle column is 2008 sales. To estimate 2008 sales that we don't have yet, I simply used the % Change from 2007 (seen immediately below 2007 sales). To the right of 2008's sales is the change year-over-year. On the bottom is the current sales, the estimated total sales at the end of the year (or well, technically the first week ending on or after the years end), and then the difference in total sales between the Wii and PS3+360.

Using last years percent changes, the Wii is only behind by about 1.2 million.

Now there's a few problems overall - the biggest one being that the Wii was so supply constrained last year in both the Americas and Others that it's hard to say what it's percent change should have been (or could have been... scary to think about). Also note that this is NOT a Nov vs Dec comparison, since the first part contains the first week in Dec, which is also why America sees a drop in the "Dec" sales, when we normally expect it to increase. Finally, price cuts, and major games releasing, though I think the price cuts affect this more overall, with the 360 seeing a 155% increase YoY in Others because of its price cut, so obviously using last years percent changes isn't going to work quite as well.

So here is an updated view of how I feel it may work out. Here's also a link, and I'll end by going over some of the changes I made and why I feel they may come to pass.

Basically, the idea is that the Wii is going to be down less (in otherwords - up) from last year, way more than one would normally expect, due to more supply. How much, is hard to say, especially in Others and America. The PS3 will probably be down more during this because it's down this year overall already. The 360 will be up more in Others (thanks to price cut), up in Japan, and down less in America.

Of course this isn't perfect, and with Wii's supply it's really impossible to know where sales will be at. But under this, the Wii is only 500,000 away from being at 50%, meaning it should be at 49.79% (if not higher).

Overall, I feel if the Wii can sell 7.5 million in the next 4 weeks (3 weeks before Christmas, one week after), it'll actually make it, blowing past my end of year prediction for it. 360 will also be higher than I expected, but the PS3 will be lower than I expected by about the same amount.

Seems only a few weeks ago we ruled it out. Thoughts?



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Some of us would need a change of underwear if such a scenario happened! :P



Make sure the shadow you chase is not the one you cast.

well with the adjustment and hw numbers from this week I am gonna guess my Magic Number is close to... 1.2 mil. Very possible.

Might lose it if we have a january hang over but get it back by march.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Assuming they can keep the supply up (something they have struggled to do much of the time), this scenario would be worse news for Sony than it would be good news for Nintendo.



Make sure the shadow you chase is not the one you cast.

I calculated that Nintendo will probably do at least 3.2 million given novembers numbers if supply holds up in the Americas. Mind you, I based these calculations on november and decembre 2007 data so it could be a bit screwed up. But if it sells 3.2 in the US then that means the rest would have to come from others and Japan...

Is that feasible?



The Doctor will see you now  Promoting Lesbianism -->

                              

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NO.
They must sell +2,74 more, then PS3+x360 in next 3 weeks.
Assuming, that PS3+x360 will do atleast 5 mln. No way, Wii will do arround 8 mln. in next 3 weeks. :)



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

CrazzyMan said:
NO.
They must sell +2,74 more, then PS3+x360 in next 3 weeks.
Assuming, that PS3+x360 will do atleast 5 mln. No way, Wii will do arround 8 mln. in next 3 weeks. :)

I don't think it's impossible, I just think it's improbable that Nintendo has that much stock to sell. If Nintendo could ship 10 million Wiis (6 million in America, 4.5 million in Others, and the rest in Japan), I feel it could sell at least 9 million of those, probably more if they shipped more to the Americas. But, they don't have that much stock, so it's unlikely.

The point of this thread was for some to look over it again one last time since many (if not most) had decided it was out of reach, where not it seems they could be within a half million of making it.



Let's see.

Gap: 2.57M

Weeks: 4

 

Okay, most importantly: What do we expect of X360 and Ps3?

If we go pessimistic, 19.25M and 26.25M. That is 45.5M, definately possible. If shipments are then 46M, 6M more will be shipped by March (if not more).

If we go more realistic, 19.5M and 26.75M. That is 46.25M, which seems perhaps a tiny bit out of range. Would need ships to be close to 47M, and then Nintendo would have to outship their forecast by 1M. Still, they said they increased productions, and they would want to be on the safe side when they made the forecast. 53M by then is definately possible.

 

So it is really a toss up right now. Personally, I don't really think they will make it, and in early Jan, it will dip further off, before starting to gain ground again.



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Well the Wii just gained 400k of the 500k needed (through adjustments). LOL.



I still don't think it will. But it's looking to be closer and closer.



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