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Forums - Sales Discussion - The PS3 not performing as bad as some claim?

Erik Aston said: I don't understand why people think Nintendo will ax Wii after 5 years or less. Nintendo systems which created new market space= NES and GB, both with 7+ year runs on the top. Less healthy systems which don't create new market space= SNES, N64, GC, GBC, GBA. All with 5 year runs or less before their successor. That holds true of other companies too. This is not Microsoft, with their three-generation plan. This is Nintendo, and they plan to take the market by storm this generation, and then stay on top as long as they can. I don't think Wii2 in 4-5 years is part of that plan. The most successful system will, in turn, have the longest run. That's true of every generation.
I could see the Wii being replaced in Q4 of 2011 (after 5 years) if the Wii sales drop off in 2009/2010 because of lack of HD ... I personally don't expect that to happen but it is a possibility.



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If the Wii continues as strong as it has, then Nintendo would clearly have no incentive to rush a new gen'. But they do have the luxury of being able to pull the trigger on the next-next gen whenever they want. And if sales start to slump in 4-5 years, or someone else is threatening to ape their motion-senseing mass-market game, then they'd have a reason to go early.



If Nintendo has the market share, they'll get the games, and people won't care if it isn't HD. And if the PS3 got a PSThwiimote, it would still be like getting 2 consoles for the price of 2. And actually, they'd be behind in developing Wii Sports-esque software, too. That applies to 360 also.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

stewacide said: If the Wii continues as strong as it has, then Nintendo would clearly have no incentive to rush a new gen'. But they do have the luxury of being able to pull the trigger on the next-next gen whenever they want. And if sales start to slump in 4-5 years, or someone else is threatening to ape their motion-senseing mass-market game, then they'd have a reason to go early.
It won't continue as strong as it has, that is just a fact, all systems will dropoff. But the only companies that can sit on their systems are ms and sony, these systems are powerful enough that they don't need to make another for atleast a decade. What are they going to do? Make their next systems weaker? That would be pointless. As for "apeing" their motion senseing thingy....No worries there as nobody will bother with that. I see no reason why MS or Sony would bother going there if they have done fine without. We need an alternative to the wii stuff and MS and Sony will grant that, more so if they outsell the wii. Neither will bother to even think about it until 2009 or 2010 when it can assured this is a long term thing and not some silly 2 year fad. If Sony passes Nintendo and if the 360 maintains it's strong lead over them...why ripoff the N when you outsell them by not? I for one hope they don't and leave the motion stuff to the N.



mrstickball said: An issue with the N64 argument - Nintendo lost a decent bit of marketshare before the N64 came out. The SNES did not have this "dizzying" amount of succuess that you all talk about. It sold 49m units worldwide. Very impressive for the time, but the NES sold somewhere near 65m or more.It had a 15m unit reduction, and the N64 merely continued that trend. Most people are clamoring to revise their PS3 numbers. Where did you expect it to be at? 100-120m units for a system that's twice the price? Doubtful. Now do you expect it to be at sub-50m units for a system that'll atleast have a market in all 3 countries? One issue I find important to Sony: Futureproofing. I hate the idea of it, as it's made the PS3 into an over-bloated system with specs that aren't needed. However, Sony has said all along that the PS3 is designed to go into the next decade. What happens if the PS3 stays on market till AFTER the next-gen systems are out and its still even 2012 and there's no PS4? Sure, it'll do only mildly against competition, but with what the PS2 has proved, it's atleast possible if the company actually supports the product. The Xbox could of done somewhere near 27.5m units worldwide had MS not of killed support so quickly. Heck, it might of even got near 30m units. So because of this, Sony might pull a coup with having the system futureproofed. Not that I agree with it, as the archatecture on the PS3 is far too difficult for devs to work on, and will make them lose alot of stuff, but 4-5 years from now, maybe the PS3 will return as a console of choice to make games that are high budget? By then the PS3 will be cheap, and would garner decent sales then. Also, the PS3 has (thus far) about a 30% marketshare in Japan. If it held at this (although it should improve somewhere to 35 to even 40% at most), it'd mean somewhere near 10m or 12.5m units sold. Most analyists predict around a 30-35% marketshare in the US, so another 25m units there, then whatever Europe + other territories where Sony has typically done well in. Of course, most predictions are merely for marketshare vs. other gen compeditors, but as we've seen with the PS2, it's still garnering about 15-25% of worldwide next-gen shares if not more since the launch of the Wii and PS3. Im not a PS3 lover or fanboy, I hate them. However, I do see the merit in what they are trying to do. This is how I believe Sony sees it - 2006 - 1.5m units sold (horrible, everyone cries the world falls down) 2007 - 8.0m units sold (still pretty bad, world is falling down for Sony, Sony doomed total) 2008 - 11.0m units sold (price drops happen, Sony gets FFXIII out there, people start buying the PS3 as it's a little cheaper and worldwide) 2009 - 14.0m units sold (PS3 hits $350-$400 for higher end model, good Sony software. Starts improving marketshare vs. Wii and 360) 2010 - 15.0m units sold (PS3 hits its "stride" still under what the 360 and Wii has done, but reaches $250-$300 with people still buying it. Next-gen systems announced, Nintendo out with Wii 2 shortly. 2011 - 11.0m units sold (Next-Wii launches. Sony still doesn't have a solution to it, delays announcing next-gen succuessor. Bad sales maybe? says press) 2012 - 7.5m units sold (PS4 announced, or agreement with MS on a join project) 2013 - 5.0m units sold (PS4 launches, PS3 continues to sell well at $150 or so with decent bit of titles) 2014+ 5.0m units sold - Sony finally calls 8 year PS3 dead. Total sales: 78m units sold. Good vs. Wii/360? Yes. But it crawls to #1 after Wii + Wii 2 have already sold 90m units.
The wii won't hit 90 or even get close, It will stall around 60 if the novelty doesn't wear off....30 if it does...



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robjoh said: Stromprophet said: You mean like the 1/3 of 360 launch that sat on shelves in Japan? You can thank that for the hardware shortage and maybe ask them WTF they were thinking sending that many there when the US was then in shortage for months. I just want to ask why everybody drags up xbox360 vs PS3 in Japan, when it is Wii that beats ps3 in Japan? You could compare PS3 with xbox360 in USA. Since launch of the PS3, the xbox360 is beating the PS3. The xbox360 launch was really really bad, but does it matter when the total lead know is over 4 million and in januari, without any supply constrains for either xbox360 and PS3, the xbox360 were above PS3? Both were beaten by Wii and PS2. The truth so far is that everybody should realise that Xbox360 or any other american consols never have been huge in Japan. Atari failed and now microsoft is failing. So stop using the xbox360 to compare PS3. It doesn't matter if ps3 beats xbox360 4 to one in Japan when Wii beats ps3 with 3 to 1 in sales. EDIT: I have seen one (1) Wii that is availible in Sweden, and that was an expensive bundle. BUT I do think we get pretty bad shippment
I wasn't comparing their sales in Japan. Show me where I said that. I was attacking M$ notion that they would be able to sell 1/3 of their whole launch stock in Japan rather than giving it to gamers in the US and Europe who would have actually bought the console. I said, ask them why they did that like a bunch of morons.



Death2009 said: stewacide said: If the Wii continues as strong as it has, then Nintendo would clearly have no incentive to rush a new gen'. But they do have the luxury of being able to pull the trigger on the next-next gen whenever they want. And if sales start to slump in 4-5 years, or someone else is threatening to ape their motion-senseing mass-market game, then they'd have a reason to go early. It won't continue as strong as it has, that is just a fact, all systems will dropoff. But the only companies that can sit on their systems are ms and sony, these systems are powerful enough that they don't need to make another for atleast a decade. What are they going to do? Make their next systems weaker? That would be pointless. As for "apeing" their motion senseing thingy....No worries there as nobody will bother with that. I see no reason why MS or Sony would bother going there if they have done fine without. We need an alternative to the wii stuff and MS and Sony will grant that, more so if they outsell the wii. Neither will bother to even think about it until 2009 or 2010 when it can assured this is a long term thing and not some silly 2 year fad. If Sony passes Nintendo and if the 360 maintains it's strong lead over them...why ripoff the N when you outsell them by not? I for one hope they don't and leave the motion stuff to the N.
I'd disagree that M$ will be able to sit. Which is in fact why they announced the new system they are coming out with to update the 360. A tri-core processor is already behind the game as Intel is already making Quadcores now. The cell in the PS3 has 1 cpu and 7 spes (1 in reserve so not used) so technically the Cell is an 8-core unit. I'd say the PS3 can wait the longest of all of them in terms of life cycle. It also has the most room to grow and continue improving graphics and functionality over the years. Motion is probably long term. It's a logical step in not only video game playing but also computer operation in general. It is especially so in the consideration of virtual reality, which is the long term video game mission. So motion is probably here to stay. I agree, Wii will not stay strong. At least not in the US or Europe. Maybe in Japan, where they seem much less concerned with graphics at the moment.



Stromprophet said: Death2009 said: stewacide said: If the Wii continues as strong as it has, then Nintendo would clearly have no incentive to rush a new gen'. But they do have the luxury of being able to pull the trigger on the next-next gen whenever they want. And if sales start to slump in 4-5 years, or someone else is threatening to ape their motion-senseing mass-market game, then they'd have a reason to go early. It won't continue as strong as it has, that is just a fact, all systems will dropoff. But the only companies that can sit on their systems are ms and sony, these systems are powerful enough that they don't need to make another for atleast a decade. What are they going to do? Make their next systems weaker? That would be pointless. As for "apeing" their motion senseing thingy....No worries there as nobody will bother with that. I see no reason why MS or Sony would bother going there if they have done fine without. We need an alternative to the wii stuff and MS and Sony will grant that, more so if they outsell the wii. Neither will bother to even think about it until 2009 or 2010 when it can assured this is a long term thing and not some silly 2 year fad. If Sony passes Nintendo and if the 360 maintains it's strong lead over them...why ripoff the N when you outsell them by not? I for one hope they don't and leave the motion stuff to the N. I'd disagree that M$ will be able to sit. Which is in fact why they announced the new system they are coming out with to update the 360. A tri-core processor is already behind the game as Intel is already making Quadcores now. The cell in the PS3 has 1 cpu and 7 spes (1 in reserve so not used) so technically the Cell is an 8-core unit. I'd say the PS3 can wait the longest of all of them in terms of life cycle. It also has the most room to grow and continue improving graphics and functionality over the years. Motion is probably long term. It's a logical step in not only video game playing but also computer operation in general. It is especially so in the consideration of virtual reality, which is the long term video game mission. So motion is probably here to stay. I agree, Wii will not stay strong. At least not in the US or Europe. Maybe in Japan, where they seem much less concerned with graphics at the moment.
The 360 isn't much weaker than the PS3 so I think they can wait. And what update are you talking about? I for one hope motion detection fails as I have hated the idea from the jump.



Death2009 said:The wii won't hit 90 or even get close, It will stall around 60 if the novelty doesn't wear off....30 if it does...
Or it leverages the "novelty" into a market leadership position, at which point it just snowballs.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

Erik Aston said: Death2009 said:The wii won't hit 90 or even get close, It will stall around 60 if the novelty doesn't wear off....30 if it does... Or it leverages the "novelty" into a market leadership position, at which point it just snowballs.
I'll buy that when it happens. But there is and always will be a large market for a contoller pad.