Not a chance. Maybe in April it will.

If anyone were to release a console in 2010, then it would most likely be considered an eigth-generation console.  So to reach 30%, you're claiming that either the PS3 or 360 will pass the Wii in sales.  I fail to see how a new competitor will dry up Wii sales without affecting PS3/360 to a similar degree.  Actually I don't think a new competitor will have much affect at all.  And only the release of a "Wii HD" could slow sales of the Wii, but I doubt either of the current HD consoles would pass it in if that were the case.

Here is the math...

PS3 + 360 sales stay under 500k/week the rest of the year.
Wii sells 1 mil a week the rest of the year.

and here is the crucial part, based on some new data coming out:
PS3 adjusted down.
360 adjusted down.
Wii adjusted up

Just put in large enough numbers for those adjustments, and the math is easy. :;

Infinity sounds like hes coming down with somthing viral. 08? I say feb 09 or Jan 09.

I've been saying this for months, and still am.

Christmas Wii Explosion.

And if not, it won't take until March or April. After Christmas, PS3 and 360 will come to a screeching halt, while the Wii is on ... let's say, a snow level, and it takes forever to stop as it slides along an ice platform through January.

The Wii will hold around a 49% market share by the end of 2008.

People who thought it would some months ago (my thread) didn't make math errors, they just didn't assume, like pretty much ANYONE here, that the 360 would be selling so well the last quarter of the year. They believed the PS3 would stay as it is and the 360 would sell below it like it did pretty much all year.

At this point it's very unlikely it will reach 50%. Not Impossible, just very unlikely.

Wii can reach 50% market share by end of 2008 only if either X360 or PS3 stops selling.

Quoted so I can laugh at you later

Actually, I'm going to laugh at you now.

It gained 0.9% market share in November. It also cut 1 million off the PS360-Wii difference (only 2.7 million to go)

It will reach 50% very soon

It would require something like the 360 being adjusted downwards.

Or, maybe we should wait for official shipment numbers from the big three. With Wii having the highest percent sellthrough, if it beat the other two in shipments, that would be more "official" than VGC numbers.

But it doesn't really matter. At this point, 50% is sort of assumed.

For those saying January... Remember that Nintendo is more likely to have to rush their Jan. shipments in to sell in December, leaving them with less stock in Jan. If PS360 were ever going to gain marketshare back, Jan. would be a good bet for when.