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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Still Think Wii Can Reach 50% Marketshare By End of 08?

TWRoO on 04 December 2008
Infinity said:
It will never happen. A better question is what date the Wii will drop to the 30s in % market share. I will say by the end of 2010 at the latest. A new home console debut would increase the likelihood of this happening of course.

I have it on the highest of authority (yes I spoke to John Lucas himself) that you will be incredibly wrong.

Considering it has been consistantly outselling both combined for a while now, that means it is still trending upwards, and as the Wii has shown so far to be the better non-holiday seller (ie more people seem to wait until Christmas for a PS3 or 360, but Wii sells the year round) it will come to pass around April-ish.

 



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kylohk on 04 December 2008
NJ5 said:
Infinity said:
It will never happen. A better question is what date the Wii will drop to the 30s in % market share. I will say by the end of 2010 at the latest. A new home console debut would increase the likelihood of this happening of course.

How many units do you think the Wii will have sold by then (end of 2010) worldwide?

 

Well, Infinity is either bad at maths or a troll. To drop to 30s in % market share would mean that the weekly totals of the PS3 and X360 combined greatly outnumber Nintendo for many weeks. E.g. for Nintendo to have a constant 33% market share would mean Wii sales = X360 sales = PS3 sales. Do you honestly see that happening anytime soon?

 



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NJ5 on 04 December 2008
kylohk said:
NJ5 said:
Infinity said:
It will never happen. A better question is what date the Wii will drop to the 30s in % market share. I will say by the end of 2010 at the latest. A new home console debut would increase the likelihood of this happening of course.

How many units do you think the Wii will have sold by then (end of 2010) worldwide?

 

Well, Infinity is either bad at maths or a troll. To drop to 30s in % market share would mean that the weekly totals of the PS3 and X360 combined greatly outnumber Nintendo for many weeks. E.g. for Nintendo to have a constant 33% market share would mean Wii sales = X360 sales = PS3 sales. Do you honestly see that happening anytime soon?

 

I'm just waiting for his answer (if he has one).

 



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Infinity on 04 December 2008

It is too early to predict total ww units by the end of 2010. A big factor, as I mentioned, is if a new home console comes out by then. I think the odds are that there probably will be a new one by then, possibly by Microsoft, or preferably by a brand new competitor other than EA. My dream would be if Atari, NEC, and Sega all got together and put out a new console with all new games fully utilizing current technology. It could be called the DreamGrafx-2600 !!! ;)



NJ5 on 04 December 2008

If it's too early to predict total units, how can you predict market share?



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Godot on 04 December 2008
Infinity said:

It is too early to predict total ww units by the end of 2010. A big factor, as I mentioned, is if a new home console comes out by then. I think the odds are that there probably will be a new one by then, possibly by Microsoft, or preferably by a brand new competitor other than EA. My dream would be if Atari, NEC, and Sega all got together and put out a new console with all new games fully utilizing current technology. It could be called the DreamGrafx-2600 !!! ;)

 

A new console is more likely to hurt 360 and PS3 as they won't be seen as high-tech products anymore. It won't affect the Wii because it's not high-tech and it's the leader.



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Infinity on 04 December 2008

Again, as I mentioned, a new competitor would decrease the market share of the Wii, PS3, and 360. Secondly, I do not see the popularity of the HD consoles dropping relative to the Wii over the next two years. If anything, the popularity will increase. Check out the adoption rates of HDTVs this holiday. Nintendo may even surprise everyone and release a new HD console by the end of 2010. Remember, even though a Wii can play Gamecube games does not mean that you add the total Wii units sold to the Gamecube's market share. I can see the decline of the Wii plain as day, but it is hard to say exactly what the figures would be.



spdk1 on 04 December 2008
Infinity said:
Again, as I mentioned, a new competitor would decrease the market share of the Wii, PS3, and 360. Secondly, I do not see the popularity of the HD consoles dropping relative to the Wii over the next two years. If anything, the popularity will increase. Check out the adoption rates of HDTVs this holiday. Nintendo may even surprise everyone and release a new HD console by the end of 2010. Remember, even though a Wii can play Gamecube games does not mean that you add the total Wii units sold to the Gamecube's market share. I can see the decline of the Wii plain as day, but it is hard to say exactly what the figures would be.

awesome logic

 



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Sephiroth357 on 04 December 2008

YES! If they run out of PS3 and 360s!Which would mean no!




scottie on 04 December 2008
skeezer said:

At this point it is at 48.3% It will only go up from thei for now, but do you really think it still has a chance to reach 50%

 

Does anyone have any math to show how it can do it?

 

Negative sales for the PS360?

 

Anyway, it's pretty rich coming from someone who predicts 40 million sales for the Wii at the end of 08 :P

 

I never predicted end of '08 btw, but it should reach it by the end of March 09