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Infinity said:

It is too early to predict total ww units by the end of 2010. A big factor, as I mentioned, is if a new home console comes out by then. I think the odds are that there probably will be a new one by then, possibly by Microsoft, or preferably by a brand new competitor other than EA. My dream would be if Atari, NEC, and Sega all got together and put out a new console with all new games fully utilizing current technology. It could be called the DreamGrafx-2600 !!! ;)

 

If anyone were to release a console in 2010, then it would most likely be considered an eigth-generation console.  So to reach 30%, you're claiming that either the PS3 or 360 will pass the Wii in sales.  I fail to see how a new competitor will dry up Wii sales without affecting PS3/360 to a similar degree.  Actually I don't think a new competitor will have much affect at all.  And only the release of a "Wii HD" could slow sales of the Wii, but I doubt either of the current HD consoles would pass it in if that were the case.