That seems pretty reasonable, Killergran. I wonder how this will be reflected in software sales, though, where the Wii's heaviest hitters seem to be even bigger than the DS's.

Not with 3 versions of the DS and only 1 version of the Wii.

I dunno. Handhelds usually do better than what? The Gameboy did better than the SNES, yes, but the Gameboy Color was trumped by the Playstation, the Gameboy Advance was curbstomped by the Playstation 2.... I'm not sure that, if there is a pattern here, that it indicates that a handheld is necessarily going to do better than a console.

@FreeTalkLive:

That's a very good point! Do you think, then, that people are rebuying the hardware en masse, or that many people who pick up one version of the DS wouldn't have picked up another one?

I do not think it will, for reason given by LNRT.

That said, I would not put it as impossible. The wii is more attractive to the over 60 market then the DS is, and with the Wii appealing to a wider demographic, there will be plenty of households that pick up more then one Wii so they don't fight over game time.

Eep, forgot that game boy counted as every version up until but not including GBA, and I was thinking about inside the same company

In recent trends, the handhelds are doing better, take this week. DS to Wii, 400k diff, psp to ps3, 50k diff

I wrote this in another thread: http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1507940 (anyone reading this should visit that thread! Hey, I have to do advertisments for my threads, they never get any replies!)

I expect the DS to sell 31M-34 again next year. So the gap between DS and Wii is likely to only increase.

Okay, I don't actually expect Nintendo to higher the production rate of Wii again. So 28M a year seems like it is pretty much the peak of what it will sell. If Nintendo highers it, I don't see it going a lot higher than it already has. After the economy changing so Nintendo gets less money pr Wii, we will not see a price cut in a long time, so the demand will not heavily increase.

The case is, DS might see its highest sales yet in its 5th year. In year 3, 4 and 5 it is going to have seen ~ 30M or more in sales.

Can the Wii do that? Honestly, I doubt it

The DS is certain to break 150M, and could make 180M. (That is 50M after 2009)

I don't think the Wii can do that. In western Europe + America, there is ~ 700M people. If you say that average family is at 3 (it is slightly higher I would believe), this means that there are 230M families. If you say that out of Americas and western Europe, Wii will sell 30M (15M Japan, 15M rest of the world), that would still mean that ~ 2 out of 3 people would have to buy a console (slightly above that). That seems awfully high to me.

PS: This post may seem a bit incomplete, but it is because I am a bit more expanding on what Killergran said, as he covered most of it.

That is a good post, Oyvoyvoyv. I would not have thought to grasp at the idea that the Wii might actually and literally saturate the market.

So how high do you see the Wii topping out?

I'd say no in the long run, consoles rarely pass handhelds, especially with the monster that is the DSi so far.

No, mainly because portables always own consoles in sales pretty much all the time unless its an N-Gage.

PSP > PS3.

DS > Wii.

And i guess the main reason to would be that the Wii and PS3 even the 360 can shut kids up when there at home.

But when there out they turn to the DS and PSP to shut there kids up instead...

Also as a side note to us "Gamers" the exclusive games for the DS and PSP OWN the Console games now an days imo... take that as you will.

At the same point in their lifetimes, the Wii is miles ahead.

So as long as the 8th generation also begins with the portables, then yes, the Wii will outsell it