Will the Wii ever pass up the DS?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

I wrote this in another thread: http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1507940 (anyone reading this should visit that thread! Hey, I have to do advertisments for my threads, they never get any replies!)

I expect the DS to sell 31M-34 again next year. So the gap between DS and Wii is likely to only increase.

 

Okay, I don't actually expect Nintendo to higher the production rate of Wii again. So 28M a year seems like it is pretty much the peak of what it will sell. If Nintendo highers it, I don't see it going a lot higher than it already has. After the economy changing so Nintendo gets less money pr Wii, we will not see a price cut in a long time, so the demand will not heavily increase.

 

The case is, DS might see its highest sales yet in its 5th year. In year 3, 4 and 5 it is going to have seen ~ 30M or more in sales.

Can the Wii do that? Honestly, I doubt it

The DS is certain to break 150M, and could make 180M. (That is 50M after 2009)

I don't think the Wii can do that. In western Europe + America, there is ~ 700M people. If you say that average family is at 3 (it is slightly higher I would believe), this means that there are 230M families. If you say that out of Americas and western Europe, Wii will sell 30M (15M Japan, 15M rest of the world), that would still mean that ~ 2 out of 3 people would have to buy a console (slightly above that). That seems awfully high to me.

 

PS: This post may seem a bit incomplete, but it is because I am a bit more expanding on what Killergran said, as he covered most of it.