You guys are behind the times! Behind the times, I says.
I'll leave mine where they are. I probably low-balled most of it, but eh.
You guys are behind the times! Behind the times, I says.
I'll leave mine where they are. I probably low-balled most of it, but eh.
Tough one, should be something like this:
Wii: 72 million
360: 35 million
PS3: 29 million
Handhelds follow...
| skeezer said: Wii: 67.8 million PS3: 38.4 million 360: 37.0 million PSP: 56.3 million DS: 122.9 million |
The PS3 overtaking the 360 by the end of 09 is not going to happen. By the end of the year the gap will likely be just over seven million consoles. Even if Sony cuts its prices by $100, MS is going to at least have another $50 price cut in 09. Sometime in 2010 is the earliest the PS3 can overtake the 360 but not even that is guaranteed.
skeezer said:
Just wait and see, that new price cut in march will make miracles happen :) |
Sales miracles don't happen during recession years and next year the global recession will still be going strong, who knows it will probably be worse then it is now.
Pssh.
Wii should break 75 million... 360 should carry a bit of momentum from this holiday and break 35 million.... PS3 should break 30 million.
So:
Wii - 77 million
360 - 35 million
PS3 - 31 million
DS - 126 million
PSP - 56 million
Those are just rough workings at the moment.... I will likely look into it in more depth in early January.

| Zucas said: I'll wait for 2008 to be over to predict. |
Same here. Way too early.
Wii: 73.5M
Explanation:
Will be at 45-46M by end of 08. Yearly, 28.8M is produced. As there may not be a complete sell-through, and some units will be returned, the number is slightly lower than what the average would be by taking 45-46 + 28.8 (would be 74.3M)
X360: 39M
Explanation:
As it looks, X360 will end at ~ 27.5M. That is ~ 12M for 2008. 10.5M then seems logical for the 4th year, as the 3rd tends to be the largest.
Ps3: 34.5M
Explanation:
Looks like it will sell ~ 11M (perhaps a tad more) for 2008, ending at ~ 20M (perhaps a tad lower) . As we can expect to see a slight growth from 2nd to 3rd year, I expect the sales to increase by ~ 33% from year 2 to 3 (the 360 did 50% + for year 2-3), and the Ps3 to sell ~ 14.5M.
All in all, Ps3's major increases over 2008, are going to be about the same as the 360 had for year 2 to 3. Some may think this number is high, but I think that this is the most logical.
Now, these are a bit tougher.
PsP: 56.5M
Explanation:
Ps3 looks like is going to end at ~ 45M for the end of the year. That is ~ 15M of sales. I believe it will see a bit off a dip next year, espescially as Japan should drop off again. 12M seems possible, and is a 20% drop from year 4-5. Could be a bit lower, 11-12M really.
DS: 125M
Explanation:
This was the toughest really. It looks like it is going to be at 95M for the end of the year, having sold ~ 32M for 2008. DS is now entering its 5th year, but as it has only been increasing, and DSi is comming out to spike up Japan, I simply don't see the money printer dropping. Still, it may not sell fully as much. 30-35M seems most logical to me, but I'm going with 30M for some odd reason.
Ps2: 130M
Explanation:
~ 124.5M by the end of the year seems probable. That is with ~ 8M sales in 2008. Should die off pretty fast now, and I see it selling "only" 5M in 2009.
Edit: Looks like I am slightly undershooting the DS for 2008. Seems like ~ 96-97M is much more likely. This also means it sold more in 08.
I change my prediction.
On the last week in 2009 (ending in January), the DS will pass the Ps2.
http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261
That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS
skeezer said:
Just wait and see, that new price cut in march will make miracles happen :) |
You both made ludicrous predictions.
@Skeezers - No way will the PS3 break 35 million, and Wii is almost certain to break 70 million although at least 68 isn't beyond the realms of possibility
@nightsurge - Massive under-prediction for both Wii and DS, while 360 and PSP are plausable, but a little high, and low respectively I think.
Both of you should think about what your Wii predictions mean... it will end this year around 45 million, and having sold 25m in the year.... if you think it will slow down next year then you are mistaken.... 45 + 25 = 70 already... but production rates will be higher next year (at least 2.4mil for 12 months, rather than ~1.8 for 6 + 2.4 for 6months)
As for the DS, it will have already passed 88 million when the rest of this week is in, and on it's way to 99 million... so with 5 weeks left it is almost certain to reach 95 million.... 109 - 95 = 14 million. which will be less than half of what it manages this year. There is no indication such an un-heard of slowdown in DS sales is about to take place.

im gonna go on and say the ps3 will sell 15-20 million next year, why? because its going to be the first time its at an affordable price.
| TWRoO said: No way will the PS3 break 35 million
|
I don't know. A 33% increase YoY doesn't seem that much. The 360 saw a 50% increase.
http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261
That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS